SINGAPORE: Listed property developers may experience some volatility in the trading of their shares, if a proposed change to real estate financial reporting standard is implemented.
The International Accounting Standards Board has been consulting the industry on whether developers should book profits when they sell a new property in advance or when the project is completed.
A similar consultation by the local Council on Corporate Disclosure and Governance was done last month.
Property developers in Singapore sell condominiums as they build them.
They receive progressive payments from buyers and report their revenue and profits each quarter.
But if the new real estate financial reporting standard is implemented, developers can only book their profits and revenue at the end of each project rather than progressively.
Assuming it takes 18 months to build a new property from scratch, the developer will record zero profit for this project in the first year and have a spike in revenue and profit at the end of the second quarter in the second year.
Accountants say the change was proposed because the accounting bodies believe properties should be viewed as goods and not services.
If the ownership of the goods has not been transferred to the buyer, the developer or seller cannot, theoretically, claim he has sold it.
So, even if he has received partial payment, he should not record it in his books as revenue and profit.
Channel NewsAsia understands that developers have submitted their feedback to the Council on Corporate Disclosure and Governance through the Real Estate Developers Association of Singapore (REDAS).
REDAS declined to comment on the issue.
<-------- if the developer or contractor can only book profit/loss by the end of the project, what about other trades? All contracts secured supposed to be in book value.. aren't they?
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Saturday, October 6, 2007
Singapore Top grade contractors earning premiums amid property boom
SINGAPORE: It's not just property developers who are riding the current industry boom.
Established construction companies that struggled through the stormy late 90s are now experiencing a robust turnaround, and are commanding price tags which are up to 20 percent higher than their smaller peers.
That's because there are not enough of them to go around in a market awash with developers who want only the best for their projects.
The larger number of projects is an obvious factor, but there is another key reason for the squeeze. A number of contractors had gone bust, and for those still around, most have been down-sized.
Kunalan Sivapuniam, managing partner at Emirates Tarian, said: "Developers are very cautious about quality. We are also faced with discerning buyers who want to pay for quality. So you have to look for quality contractors. If you look at category A or grade one contractors, there are not that many now."
Industry watchers said that going forward, top grade construction firms may command premiums higher than now.
Song Seng Wun, regional economist at CIMB-GK Research, said: "At this juncture, we are at the beginning of the upturn of the construction cycle. I suspect in the coming few years, the construction firms will do quite well."
Developers say higher costs could be passed down to home buyers.
Emirates Tarian's Kunalan Sivapuniam said: "It's hard to say how much of that is going to be passed on. It's a question of whether they are in a hurry to launch the projects, in which case they have to bite the bullet.
"If you have developers that are able to hold on to their projects and launch them over a longer period of time, then they would be able to pass on a lot of this, because the market is rising."
As this demand bulge moves further down the pipe, industry players say related services like interior design and electrical fittings can also look to rosy days ahead.
According to some estimates, the value of construction contracts awarded this year will hit more than S$20 billion. - CNA
<-------------- I agree... singapore construction stocks definitely a good buy for investment at this period
Established construction companies that struggled through the stormy late 90s are now experiencing a robust turnaround, and are commanding price tags which are up to 20 percent higher than their smaller peers.
That's because there are not enough of them to go around in a market awash with developers who want only the best for their projects.
The larger number of projects is an obvious factor, but there is another key reason for the squeeze. A number of contractors had gone bust, and for those still around, most have been down-sized.
Kunalan Sivapuniam, managing partner at Emirates Tarian, said: "Developers are very cautious about quality. We are also faced with discerning buyers who want to pay for quality. So you have to look for quality contractors. If you look at category A or grade one contractors, there are not that many now."
Industry watchers said that going forward, top grade construction firms may command premiums higher than now.
Song Seng Wun, regional economist at CIMB-GK Research, said: "At this juncture, we are at the beginning of the upturn of the construction cycle. I suspect in the coming few years, the construction firms will do quite well."
Developers say higher costs could be passed down to home buyers.
Emirates Tarian's Kunalan Sivapuniam said: "It's hard to say how much of that is going to be passed on. It's a question of whether they are in a hurry to launch the projects, in which case they have to bite the bullet.
"If you have developers that are able to hold on to their projects and launch them over a longer period of time, then they would be able to pass on a lot of this, because the market is rising."
As this demand bulge moves further down the pipe, industry players say related services like interior design and electrical fittings can also look to rosy days ahead.
According to some estimates, the value of construction contracts awarded this year will hit more than S$20 billion. - CNA
<-------------- I agree... singapore construction stocks definitely a good buy for investment at this period
US job growth returns; revision eliminates August drop
WASHINGTON : The US economy generated 110,00 jobs in September, the Labour Department said Friday, as it also revised its report from last month to show gains instead of losses.
The report on nonfarm payrolls, seen as one of the best gauges of economic momentum, suggested the world's biggest economy is holding firm in the face of credit and housing woes.
Significantly, the agency revised up its estimate for August to show a gain of 89,000 jobs, instead of a loss of 4,000 that had stunned analysts and fanned fears about a recession.
The agency said the US unemployment rate edged up to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent as the number of job seekers increased.
The report would appear to ease fears that the economy made an abrupt turn downward in August amid a credit squeeze linked to fears about the sub-prime housing market.
Yet the average monthly gain for the third quarter was 97,000 jobs a month, down from 126,000 on average in the second quarter and consistent with a cooling economy.
The report last month showing the first drop in overall employment in four years prompted analysts to tear up their economic forecasts and was seen as a factor in the Federal Reserve's decision on September 18 to slash key interest rates by half a percentage point.
It was not immediately clear how the Fed would respond to the latest report, but Robert MacIntosh, chief economist for Eaton Vance, said the revised data suggests the central bank may have erred in easing rates so much.
"It means the Fed probably shouldn't have done what they did, that they should have waited," MacIntosh said.
"Those of us who were sceptical at the time now feel a little redeemed."
<------ Guess it is highly unlikely a fed cut will happen end of this month
The report on nonfarm payrolls, seen as one of the best gauges of economic momentum, suggested the world's biggest economy is holding firm in the face of credit and housing woes.
Significantly, the agency revised up its estimate for August to show a gain of 89,000 jobs, instead of a loss of 4,000 that had stunned analysts and fanned fears about a recession.
The agency said the US unemployment rate edged up to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent as the number of job seekers increased.
The report would appear to ease fears that the economy made an abrupt turn downward in August amid a credit squeeze linked to fears about the sub-prime housing market.
Yet the average monthly gain for the third quarter was 97,000 jobs a month, down from 126,000 on average in the second quarter and consistent with a cooling economy.
The report last month showing the first drop in overall employment in four years prompted analysts to tear up their economic forecasts and was seen as a factor in the Federal Reserve's decision on September 18 to slash key interest rates by half a percentage point.
It was not immediately clear how the Fed would respond to the latest report, but Robert MacIntosh, chief economist for Eaton Vance, said the revised data suggests the central bank may have erred in easing rates so much.
"It means the Fed probably shouldn't have done what they did, that they should have waited," MacIntosh said.
"Those of us who were sceptical at the time now feel a little redeemed."
<------ Guess it is highly unlikely a fed cut will happen end of this month
Friday, October 5, 2007
Asia Stocks Week Ahead-Earnings seen providing fresh cues
By Ian Chua HONG KONG, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Investors are likely to turn increasingly cautious after having pushed Asian stocks to fresh peaks for a third straight week, but the underlying tone remains firm thanks to diminishing worries about a global credit squeeze.
Markets will take their cues from profit results as major firms such as Samsung Electronics, the world's top memory chip maker, Infosys Technologies , India's No. 2 software services exporter, as well as key U.S. names including aluminium company Alcoa Inc post quarterly results.
Financial markets in mainland China resume trading after a week-long break for the National Day holidays.
Given strong regional economic growth and valuations that are still reasonable, albeit no longer cheap, analysts say the outlook for Asia remains generally positive.
Taiwan, for example, is particularly attractive compared with its Asian and global peers, some market players say.
It is a "market which I continue to think is undervalued and shows the world's highest earnings per share growth this year," said Burkhard Varnholt, chief investment officer at Swiss asset manager Bank Sarasin .
MSCI's measure of Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan has risen in the past seven weeks, reaching successive record highs in the last three.
It has rallied more than 30 percent from the August low after interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve helped soothe fears of a global credit shortage stemming from the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis.
Early in the week, investors are likely react to any surprises in the influential U.S. jobs report due after Asian markets close on Friday, Oct 5.
<------- It seems from the report that Asian market will continue to move north in the next few weeks.
Markets will take their cues from profit results as major firms such as Samsung Electronics, the world's top memory chip maker, Infosys Technologies , India's No. 2 software services exporter, as well as key U.S. names including aluminium company Alcoa Inc post quarterly results.
Financial markets in mainland China resume trading after a week-long break for the National Day holidays.
Given strong regional economic growth and valuations that are still reasonable, albeit no longer cheap, analysts say the outlook for Asia remains generally positive.
Taiwan, for example, is particularly attractive compared with its Asian and global peers, some market players say.
It is a "market which I continue to think is undervalued and shows the world's highest earnings per share growth this year," said Burkhard Varnholt, chief investment officer at Swiss asset manager Bank Sarasin .
MSCI's measure of Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan has risen in the past seven weeks, reaching successive record highs in the last three.
It has rallied more than 30 percent from the August low after interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve helped soothe fears of a global credit shortage stemming from the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis.
Early in the week, investors are likely react to any surprises in the influential U.S. jobs report due after Asian markets close on Friday, Oct 5.
<------- It seems from the report that Asian market will continue to move north in the next few weeks.
Jobs: Brace for more weakness
Economists say even if Friday's September jobs report doesn't show another drop in payrolls, the signals are there for a soft labor market going forward.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The big and unexpected job loss in August shook economists and investors, and while the September report due Friday is expected to show a hiring rebound, job seekers should still be nervous.
The Labor Department on Friday will release its closely watched jobs report, the first such reading since the August report showed the first drop in workers on U.S. payrolls in four years.
That job loss set off alarm bells and helped open the door for the Federal Reserve to make its first interest rate cut in four years at its September meeting. Economists and investors will be watching Friday's report closely to see what it means for future fed action.
The job report is important beyond the Fed and interest rates.
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist with PNC Financial Services Group, said that if the September jobs report is again much weaker than expected, especially if it shows another drop in employment, it will be very bad news for the economy.
"I think the chance of a recession is less than a third," Hoffman said. "If we see another drop in employment, especially in the private sector, I'd be surprised if not shocked, and very nervous. I might put the chance of a recession at 50-50. We might be hanging by our fingernails in that case."
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are forecasting a 100,000 gain in payrolls in September. That's close to their forecast of a month ago that proved to be so wrong.
Even with that gain, the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent in August.
It's also possible that the August payroll reading of a loss of 4,000 jobs overall could be revised back into positive territory. August typically is a month that sees some of the largest revisions in the initial readings, said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's.
But Wyss and many other economists say they're expecting job growth to be sluggish all the way into next spring or summer. That could mean unemployment rising later this year or early next year past the 5 percent benchmark for the first time since 2005.
"You need about a payroll gain of about 125,000 to 150,000 a month to keep the unemployment rate stable," said Wyss. "That's my feeling, that we'll see the unemployment rate gradually drifting up to above 5 percent, probably peaking out next spring or early summer."
<----------- Wonder has US Stock market already taken this weak signal into account and ansorbed the backlash? Hopefully yes..
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The big and unexpected job loss in August shook economists and investors, and while the September report due Friday is expected to show a hiring rebound, job seekers should still be nervous.
The Labor Department on Friday will release its closely watched jobs report, the first such reading since the August report showed the first drop in workers on U.S. payrolls in four years.
That job loss set off alarm bells and helped open the door for the Federal Reserve to make its first interest rate cut in four years at its September meeting. Economists and investors will be watching Friday's report closely to see what it means for future fed action.
The job report is important beyond the Fed and interest rates.
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist with PNC Financial Services Group, said that if the September jobs report is again much weaker than expected, especially if it shows another drop in employment, it will be very bad news for the economy.
"I think the chance of a recession is less than a third," Hoffman said. "If we see another drop in employment, especially in the private sector, I'd be surprised if not shocked, and very nervous. I might put the chance of a recession at 50-50. We might be hanging by our fingernails in that case."
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are forecasting a 100,000 gain in payrolls in September. That's close to their forecast of a month ago that proved to be so wrong.
Even with that gain, the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent in August.
It's also possible that the August payroll reading of a loss of 4,000 jobs overall could be revised back into positive territory. August typically is a month that sees some of the largest revisions in the initial readings, said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's.
But Wyss and many other economists say they're expecting job growth to be sluggish all the way into next spring or summer. That could mean unemployment rising later this year or early next year past the 5 percent benchmark for the first time since 2005.
"You need about a payroll gain of about 125,000 to 150,000 a month to keep the unemployment rate stable," said Wyss. "That's my feeling, that we'll see the unemployment rate gradually drifting up to above 5 percent, probably peaking out next spring or early summer."
<----------- Wonder has US Stock market already taken this weak signal into account and ansorbed the backlash? Hopefully yes..
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Wall Street waits for jobs report
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks could be on hold Thursday as investors await the closely watched employment report due at the end of the week for clues about the future direction of interest rates.
At 8:23 a.m. ET, futures were narrowly higher, with a comparison to fair value pointing to a flat to slightly positive open for Wall Street.
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan talks with Fortune's Andy Serwer about his biggest economic concern for the U.S.
Traders are anxious ahead of the September jobs report due out Friday. The government report is expected to show a gain of 100,000 jobs after a decline in August, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The number is likely to play a big factor as the Federal Reserve decides whether or not to keep cutting interest rates. A weak report could give policymakers room to keep lowering rates, while a much stronger report could rattle investors hoping for more cuts from the Fed.
In addition to the rate outlook, investors will be looking to the report for signs of economic weakness. A number that comes in well below expectations could reignite recession fears and overshadow any boost stocks get from the likelihood of more rate cuts.
"I can't see there being that much movement Thursday," said Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wachovia. He said it will take a number close to the consensus forecast on payroll growth Friday to give a lift to markets, while the risks to the market from either a too weak or two strong are likely to keep investors nervous ahead of the report.
<-------- Guess tomorrow will be a cautious day for traders..
At 8:23 a.m. ET, futures were narrowly higher, with a comparison to fair value pointing to a flat to slightly positive open for Wall Street.
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan talks with Fortune's Andy Serwer about his biggest economic concern for the U.S.
Traders are anxious ahead of the September jobs report due out Friday. The government report is expected to show a gain of 100,000 jobs after a decline in August, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The number is likely to play a big factor as the Federal Reserve decides whether or not to keep cutting interest rates. A weak report could give policymakers room to keep lowering rates, while a much stronger report could rattle investors hoping for more cuts from the Fed.
In addition to the rate outlook, investors will be looking to the report for signs of economic weakness. A number that comes in well below expectations could reignite recession fears and overshadow any boost stocks get from the likelihood of more rate cuts.
"I can't see there being that much movement Thursday," said Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wachovia. He said it will take a number close to the consensus forecast on payroll growth Friday to give a lift to markets, while the risks to the market from either a too weak or two strong are likely to keep investors nervous ahead of the report.
<-------- Guess tomorrow will be a cautious day for traders..
Malaysia imposes new ban on Bangladeshi workers
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia has imposed a fresh ban on migrant workers from Bangladesh after more than 2,000 of them were abandoned at its main international airport, a report said Thursday.
The cash-strapped workers had to be housed at Kuala Lumpur International Airport's car park without proper food and water after being abandoned by local employers.
"We will not allow any more recruitment of Bangladeshi workers," Radzi Sheikh Ahmad, home affairs minister, was quoted as saying by New Straits Times.
He added that the freeze took effect immediately.
"There have been lots of problems and headaches created by agents and employers of Bangladeshi workers," he said.
This is the third time since 1996 that Malaysia has banned the intake of Bangladeshi workers.
But Talat Mahmud Khan, counsellor for labour at the Bangladesh High Commission in Malaysia, said Dhaka would appeal against the ban.
"We are going to ask the minister to reconsider. We are requesting (Malaysia) to continue the process of genuine applications," he told AFP.
Talat said many of the workers stuck at the airport had already been collected by employers while others had been deported.
Almost 180,000 Bangladeshis are working in Malaysia, he said. They are mainly engaged in the agriculture and service industries.
Malaysia relies heavily on foreign workers, particularly in the construction and farming sectors.
<---------- The workers were innocent... they were just trying to lead a better life. Is the ban going to solve this problem?
The cash-strapped workers had to be housed at Kuala Lumpur International Airport's car park without proper food and water after being abandoned by local employers.
"We will not allow any more recruitment of Bangladeshi workers," Radzi Sheikh Ahmad, home affairs minister, was quoted as saying by New Straits Times.
He added that the freeze took effect immediately.
"There have been lots of problems and headaches created by agents and employers of Bangladeshi workers," he said.
This is the third time since 1996 that Malaysia has banned the intake of Bangladeshi workers.
But Talat Mahmud Khan, counsellor for labour at the Bangladesh High Commission in Malaysia, said Dhaka would appeal against the ban.
"We are going to ask the minister to reconsider. We are requesting (Malaysia) to continue the process of genuine applications," he told AFP.
Talat said many of the workers stuck at the airport had already been collected by employers while others had been deported.
Almost 180,000 Bangladeshis are working in Malaysia, he said. They are mainly engaged in the agriculture and service industries.
Malaysia relies heavily on foreign workers, particularly in the construction and farming sectors.
<---------- The workers were innocent... they were just trying to lead a better life. Is the ban going to solve this problem?
Wall Street's weak Wednesday
Investors step back from the recent advance, mull private employment and services sector reports ahead of Friday's jobs report.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stock declined Wednesday, as investors retreated after the recent run up and ahead of the September jobs report, due Friday.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.6 percent, falling for a second session after ending at an all-time high of 14,087.55 on Monday. The tech-fueled Nasdaq composite and the broader S&P 500 index both declined as well.
Stocks had drifted lower throughout the morning as investors mulled mostly in-line readings on the services sector of the economy, and private sector employment, ahead of Friday's big jobs report.
But in the afternoon, stock losses accelerated a bit, with technology, commodity and material stocks leading the pull back.
Treasury prices dipped, lifting the corresponding yields. Oil and gold prices declined.
Investors will likely take their cue Thursday morning from the weekly jobless claims report and the August factory orders report.
<----------- This coming friday US unemployment data will be critical to the US market. But then, it may also be a trigger for another interest rate cut.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stock declined Wednesday, as investors retreated after the recent run up and ahead of the September jobs report, due Friday.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.6 percent, falling for a second session after ending at an all-time high of 14,087.55 on Monday. The tech-fueled Nasdaq composite and the broader S&P 500 index both declined as well.
Stocks had drifted lower throughout the morning as investors mulled mostly in-line readings on the services sector of the economy, and private sector employment, ahead of Friday's big jobs report.
But in the afternoon, stock losses accelerated a bit, with technology, commodity and material stocks leading the pull back.
Treasury prices dipped, lifting the corresponding yields. Oil and gold prices declined.
Investors will likely take their cue Thursday morning from the weekly jobless claims report and the August factory orders report.
<----------- This coming friday US unemployment data will be critical to the US market. But then, it may also be a trigger for another interest rate cut.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Asian markets hit by profit taking after record high
MARKET sentiment was badly spooked by a strong wave of programme selling by hedge funds in late afternoon trading, which forced several Asian markets to relinquish the fresh highs conquered earlier on Wednesday.
In particular, China stocks in Hong Kong and Singapore were badly bruised by the selldown. The benchmark Straits Times Index here fell 39.21 points, or 1 per cent, to 3754.62, after hitting an intraday record high of 3851.88, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down an eye-popping 719.81 points, or 2.5 per cent, to 27,479.94.
But the very volatile market conditions bolstered overall market volume to 3.31 billion shares worth $3.69 billion. On the scoreboard, there were 684 losers and 234 gainers.
"Going by the way the selling across the region is co-ordinated, it is obvious that hedge funds are at work, taking profits on the recent big gains on China stocks. At 2.30, STI and Hang Seng were in top form, only to collapse almost simultaneously at around 3.30," noted a remisier on Wednesday.
Big blue-chip losers here included DBS Group Holdings which lost 30 cents to $22.20 and property giant City Developments which fell 60 cents to $16.30. But bucking the trend was Singapore Exchange which closed at a record $15.20, after advancing 80 cents.
On the broad market, China plays were the big losers, as they succumbed to a second day of profit-taking, after racking up spectacular gains recently. The PrimePartners China Index closed 11.4 points, or 3.7 per cent, down at 298.5. Among the losers were punters' favourites such as Sino-Environment lost 28 cents to $3.64, while frozen dumpling maker Synear Food fell 16 cents to $2.15.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley Research noted in a report on Wedneswday that Asia-Pacific markets have become unattractive after the sharp run-up last month.
It said: "The 12-month forward price-earnings ratio of 16.6 times is at a 13.1 per cent premium to the MSCI World Index and a 9.6 per cent premium to the US S&P 500 shares. ..Further upside most likely requires strong liquidity conditions, substantial fund inflow from both foreign and domestic investors and euphoric investor sentiment."
<---------- Hope tomorrow is a better day, not another sea of red
In particular, China stocks in Hong Kong and Singapore were badly bruised by the selldown. The benchmark Straits Times Index here fell 39.21 points, or 1 per cent, to 3754.62, after hitting an intraday record high of 3851.88, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down an eye-popping 719.81 points, or 2.5 per cent, to 27,479.94.
But the very volatile market conditions bolstered overall market volume to 3.31 billion shares worth $3.69 billion. On the scoreboard, there were 684 losers and 234 gainers.
"Going by the way the selling across the region is co-ordinated, it is obvious that hedge funds are at work, taking profits on the recent big gains on China stocks. At 2.30, STI and Hang Seng were in top form, only to collapse almost simultaneously at around 3.30," noted a remisier on Wednesday.
Big blue-chip losers here included DBS Group Holdings which lost 30 cents to $22.20 and property giant City Developments which fell 60 cents to $16.30. But bucking the trend was Singapore Exchange which closed at a record $15.20, after advancing 80 cents.
On the broad market, China plays were the big losers, as they succumbed to a second day of profit-taking, after racking up spectacular gains recently. The PrimePartners China Index closed 11.4 points, or 3.7 per cent, down at 298.5. Among the losers were punters' favourites such as Sino-Environment lost 28 cents to $3.64, while frozen dumpling maker Synear Food fell 16 cents to $2.15.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley Research noted in a report on Wedneswday that Asia-Pacific markets have become unattractive after the sharp run-up last month.
It said: "The 12-month forward price-earnings ratio of 16.6 times is at a 13.1 per cent premium to the MSCI World Index and a 9.6 per cent premium to the US S&P 500 shares. ..Further upside most likely requires strong liquidity conditions, substantial fund inflow from both foreign and domestic investors and euphoric investor sentiment."
<---------- Hope tomorrow is a better day, not another sea of red
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Dow Jones Passes 14,000 for Record High
Dow Jones Surges Past 14,000 to Close at Record High As Credit Worries Begin to Subside
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street began the fourth quarter with a huge rally Monday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average to a record close. Stocks were buoyed by a growing belief that the worst of the credit crisis has passed.
The Dow rose 191.92, or 1.38 percent, to 14,087.55, surpassing its closing record of 14,000.41 set in mid-July. The blue chip index rose as high as 14,115.51 to eclipse its previous intraday high of 14,021.95 set July 17.
While the beginning of the new quarter was an incentive for institutional investors to buy, they also seemed to be motivated by a sense that banks and other financial companies generally weathered the recent credit market upheaval. Both Citigroup and Switzerland's UBS AG issued third-quarter profit warnings, but indicated the current period might see a return to normal earnings levels.
Meanwhile, the market was optimistic that new economic data might nudge the Federal Reserve toward another interest rate cut at its Oct. 30-31 meeting. The Institute for Supply Management said the manufacturing sector grew in September at the slowest pace in six months; the trade group said its index of manufacturing activity registered at 52.0 in September, below forecasts for a reading of at least 52.5.
<---------- Cheers!
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street began the fourth quarter with a huge rally Monday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average to a record close. Stocks were buoyed by a growing belief that the worst of the credit crisis has passed.
The Dow rose 191.92, or 1.38 percent, to 14,087.55, surpassing its closing record of 14,000.41 set in mid-July. The blue chip index rose as high as 14,115.51 to eclipse its previous intraday high of 14,021.95 set July 17.
While the beginning of the new quarter was an incentive for institutional investors to buy, they also seemed to be motivated by a sense that banks and other financial companies generally weathered the recent credit market upheaval. Both Citigroup and Switzerland's UBS AG issued third-quarter profit warnings, but indicated the current period might see a return to normal earnings levels.
Meanwhile, the market was optimistic that new economic data might nudge the Federal Reserve toward another interest rate cut at its Oct. 30-31 meeting. The Institute for Supply Management said the manufacturing sector grew in September at the slowest pace in six months; the trade group said its index of manufacturing activity registered at 52.0 in September, below forecasts for a reading of at least 52.5.
<---------- Cheers!
瑞信：建筑业前景看好
地建筑业的营运环境和收入展望乐观，建筑器材供应业者以及专才承办商也备受看好，相信接下来一年到一年半的股价将继续活跃。
瑞信(Credit Suisse)日前发表本地建筑界分析报告指出，我国建筑业的表现与国内生产总值增长的关系一般上会有10个到14个季度的滞后期，这意味着经济增长即使现在走下坡，建筑活动也要等到2010年才会开始放缓下来。
此外，建筑业也跟随新地段出售的市况。近期几个季度的卖地速度显示经济的活力，也反映出建筑业正处于旺市时期。事实上，目前的建筑需求量是强劲到建筑资源已经陷入供不应求的紧张局面。 整体收入展望 仍然继续强劲
尽管市面上对于宏观经济展望的看法有分歧，本地的基础建设情况大致而言是安然无恙，而本地建筑业更可说是从来没有像现在这么稳健。建筑业的整体收入展望仍然继续强劲，其中建筑器材供应业者以及专才承办商最能承受任何收益风险，并在接下来一年到一年半取得强劲的营收表现和毛利率增长。
基于建筑业的乐观展望，瑞信首次给予长运集团(Tiong Woon Corporation)和荣南控股(Yongnam) “表现优于大市”的评级，维持对丰隆亚洲(Hong Leong Asia)的“表现优于大市”评级，对于达丰控股(Tat Hong Holdings)则保持“中性”评级，但却把它的盈利预测调高4％到12％。
长运集团的核心业务为处理量超过1000公吨的重型起重机业，其较高的使用率和强劲的租用率料将推动公司的收入增长。它收购印尼民丹岛占地64公顷的制造围场(fabrication yard)，为它今年初争取到首个合同项目，预料订单将会增加，而毛利率因规模效应和效率提高而好转。
根据折现现金流(DCF)估值，瑞信预测长运的加权平均资金成本(WACC)为10.2％，最终增长率(terminal growth)为3％，因此把它的一年目标价定为1.40元，相等于15倍的下财年底本益比。 荣南控股是本地地下支撑(strutting)以及结构钢铁工程的领导业者。瑞信相信它接下来几个月内能够争取到本地大部分的显著建筑合同。考虑到它的营运规模优势以及业界供应紧张现状，它的盈利可望在现财年和下财年增长两倍。
根据折现现金流估值，瑞信预测荣南的加权平均资金成本为9.9％，最终增长率(terminal growth)为3％，并把它的目标价定为50分，相等于15倍的下财年底本益比。
丰隆亚洲则控制东南亚最庞大的花岗石场(granite quarry)，因此它的建材业务料会成为本地建筑业强劲复苏的最大受益者。它最近争取滨海湾金沙的合同，独家供应对方80万立方米的预制混凝土(ready-mix concrete)。
瑞信预测它的建材业务在现财年将占它总盈利的48％，其营收复合年增长率(CAGR)可达24％，而这个比例还会一直增加到09财年。根据丰隆亚洲所有部分加起来(SOTP)估算，瑞信把丰隆亚洲的目标价定为4.65元。
至于达丰控股，在接下来几年的收益料会受惠于起重机的出租费持续攀高，这是因为本地主要的基本建设、石油与天然气工程计划数量可观，同时达丰在新起重机交货的时间和资本条件方面具备优势。
考虑到以起重机公吨总和来说，达丰继续是全球的领导业者，瑞信如今预测它到10财年的三年期净利复合年增长率为26％。以15倍的下财年本益比计算，它的新目标价为2.35元。
<-------- Time to look at Singapore construction stocks, or perhaps already too late
瑞信(Credit Suisse)日前发表本地建筑界分析报告指出，我国建筑业的表现与国内生产总值增长的关系一般上会有10个到14个季度的滞后期，这意味着经济增长即使现在走下坡，建筑活动也要等到2010年才会开始放缓下来。
此外，建筑业也跟随新地段出售的市况。近期几个季度的卖地速度显示经济的活力，也反映出建筑业正处于旺市时期。事实上，目前的建筑需求量是强劲到建筑资源已经陷入供不应求的紧张局面。 整体收入展望 仍然继续强劲
尽管市面上对于宏观经济展望的看法有分歧，本地的基础建设情况大致而言是安然无恙，而本地建筑业更可说是从来没有像现在这么稳健。建筑业的整体收入展望仍然继续强劲，其中建筑器材供应业者以及专才承办商最能承受任何收益风险，并在接下来一年到一年半取得强劲的营收表现和毛利率增长。
基于建筑业的乐观展望，瑞信首次给予长运集团(Tiong Woon Corporation)和荣南控股(Yongnam) “表现优于大市”的评级，维持对丰隆亚洲(Hong Leong Asia)的“表现优于大市”评级，对于达丰控股(Tat Hong Holdings)则保持“中性”评级，但却把它的盈利预测调高4％到12％。
长运集团的核心业务为处理量超过1000公吨的重型起重机业，其较高的使用率和强劲的租用率料将推动公司的收入增长。它收购印尼民丹岛占地64公顷的制造围场(fabrication yard)，为它今年初争取到首个合同项目，预料订单将会增加，而毛利率因规模效应和效率提高而好转。
根据折现现金流(DCF)估值，瑞信预测长运的加权平均资金成本(WACC)为10.2％，最终增长率(terminal growth)为3％，因此把它的一年目标价定为1.40元，相等于15倍的下财年底本益比。 荣南控股是本地地下支撑(strutting)以及结构钢铁工程的领导业者。瑞信相信它接下来几个月内能够争取到本地大部分的显著建筑合同。考虑到它的营运规模优势以及业界供应紧张现状，它的盈利可望在现财年和下财年增长两倍。
根据折现现金流估值，瑞信预测荣南的加权平均资金成本为9.9％，最终增长率(terminal growth)为3％，并把它的目标价定为50分，相等于15倍的下财年底本益比。
丰隆亚洲则控制东南亚最庞大的花岗石场(granite quarry)，因此它的建材业务料会成为本地建筑业强劲复苏的最大受益者。它最近争取滨海湾金沙的合同，独家供应对方80万立方米的预制混凝土(ready-mix concrete)。
瑞信预测它的建材业务在现财年将占它总盈利的48％，其营收复合年增长率(CAGR)可达24％，而这个比例还会一直增加到09财年。根据丰隆亚洲所有部分加起来(SOTP)估算，瑞信把丰隆亚洲的目标价定为4.65元。
至于达丰控股，在接下来几年的收益料会受惠于起重机的出租费持续攀高，这是因为本地主要的基本建设、石油与天然气工程计划数量可观，同时达丰在新起重机交货的时间和资本条件方面具备优势。
考虑到以起重机公吨总和来说，达丰继续是全球的领导业者，瑞信如今预测它到10财年的三年期净利复合年增长率为26％。以15倍的下财年本益比计算，它的新目标价为2.35元。
<-------- Time to look at Singapore construction stocks, or perhaps already too late
Monday, October 1, 2007
Asia Stocks Week Ahead-Record oil, weak dollar threaten record run
A rally in Asian stocks could run out of steam as mid-October marks the start of company earnings reports across the region, while investors may find it harder to ignore the risks of record oil prices and a weaker dollar.
Strong economic growth at home and the prospects of more U.S. interest rate cuts have spurred on gains in the region, with the broad MSCI Asia ex-Japan stock index hitting a string of records to gain about 12 percent in September, its strongest month in eight years.
Although the rising trend is likely to remain intact -- with the index rebounding some 32 percent since its low in mid-August -- analysts warn caution is slipping in amid signs of a weakening economy in the United States, the region's top export destination.
China, which is becoming another key export destination for the region, is on holiday for the whole week, potentially sapping some momentum in markets such as in Hong Kong and South Korea.
"Relative to what we've seen so far, stock markets should be quiet as we are heading to the earnings reporting season," said Kim Joon-hyun, an analyst at Goodmorning Shinhan Securities in Seoul.
"Record oil prices are still a big concern for stock markets, and a weakening of the dollar is not a positive development for exporters," he added.
The dollar has recently hit record lows against the euro and a basket of currencies, raising worries that continued weakness in the greenback will eat into profits earned abroad by export-dependent Asian companies.
Oil prices , also at record levels, are another concern, even if some resource stocks have so far benefitted, as they have the potential to slow consumer demand in key global markets.
"Investors will really have to tighten their belts and wear helmets because a sharp correction in the short-term is not ruled out," said Gajendra Nagpal, chief executive of Unicon Financial Intermediaries in Bangalore, India.
<------------- Better be cautious when it comes to mid Oct
Strong economic growth at home and the prospects of more U.S. interest rate cuts have spurred on gains in the region, with the broad MSCI Asia ex-Japan stock index hitting a string of records to gain about 12 percent in September, its strongest month in eight years.
Although the rising trend is likely to remain intact -- with the index rebounding some 32 percent since its low in mid-August -- analysts warn caution is slipping in amid signs of a weakening economy in the United States, the region's top export destination.
China, which is becoming another key export destination for the region, is on holiday for the whole week, potentially sapping some momentum in markets such as in Hong Kong and South Korea.
"Relative to what we've seen so far, stock markets should be quiet as we are heading to the earnings reporting season," said Kim Joon-hyun, an analyst at Goodmorning Shinhan Securities in Seoul.
"Record oil prices are still a big concern for stock markets, and a weakening of the dollar is not a positive development for exporters," he added.
The dollar has recently hit record lows against the euro and a basket of currencies, raising worries that continued weakness in the greenback will eat into profits earned abroad by export-dependent Asian companies.
Oil prices , also at record levels, are another concern, even if some resource stocks have so far benefitted, as they have the potential to slow consumer demand in key global markets.
"Investors will really have to tighten their belts and wear helmets because a sharp correction in the short-term is not ruled out," said Gajendra Nagpal, chief executive of Unicon Financial Intermediaries in Bangalore, India.
<------------- Better be cautious when it comes to mid Oct
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