Fed Predicts Slower Growth, More Jobless

Fed Forecasts Slower Growth and More Out of Work Next Year

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The housing collapse and credit crisis will slow economic growth and nudge up unemployment next year, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday in a first-of-its-kind forecast that some economists believe will lead to interest rate cuts early in 2008.
Don't count on a cut in rates at the Fed's December meeting, however, analysts say. The Fed called its rate reduction in late October a "close call" and hinted that its two cuts this year may be sufficient to energize the economy, according to minutes of the Oct. 31 closed-door meeting made public Tuesday.
Policymakers raised concerns at that meeting that inflation might flare up again in the short term, especially in the face of rising energy prices.
But with the Fed's longer-term forecast calling for moderating inflation next year and beyond, economists believe the central bank will have leeway to reduce rates next year.
"The economy is walking on a high wire. Eventually the Fed will have to cut rates again to put a net or a cushion under a falling economy," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. He and other economists predicted more rates cuts early next year to prevent the possibility of the economy falling into a recession.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials gained ground after the Fed issued its forecast and minutes of the October meeting. The Dow Jones industrials were up more than 50 points.
The Federal Reserve, in the first of its quarterly economic reports to the nation, said it believes business growth will slow next year, with the gross domestic product gaining between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent. That would be weaker than how the Fed expects the economy to perform this year and would mark a downgrade to a previous projection released in the summer.
GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is the best barometer of the country's economic fitness.
The downgrade to GDP was due to a number of factors, including "the tightened terms and reduced availability of subprime and jumbo mortgages, weaker-than-expected housing data and rising oil prices," the Fed explained.

Wall Street Heads Toward Higher Open

Stocks Point Toward Higher Open, Rebounding From Steep Loss Ahead of Fed Minutes, Housing Data

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stocks were poised to rebound Tuesday from steep losses a day earlier as investors, relieved about strong results from Hewlett-Packard Co., awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting and data on housing starts.
Having swooned Monday due to growing anxiety about upcoming losses at the world's major banks, Wall Street seemed to think its sell-off was overdone, considering that third-quarter earnings outside the financial sector have shown solid growth.
After the closing bell Monday, H-P posted a 28 percent rise in profit that easily surpassed analysts' average forecast. The computer and printer maker also lifted its financial outlook and authorized an additional $8 billion for stock buybacks.
The stock market has been mercurial lately, though. What Fed policy makers said behind closed doors on Oct. 31, when they lowered interest rates by a quarter-point, will be released at 2 p.m. EST and read closely for hints about future rate actions.
In the meantime, investors have more corporate and economic news to digest. The Commerce Department is expected to report that housing starts declined again in October to their lowest level in 15 years, while retailers including Target Corp., Barnes and Noble Inc. and BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. are expected to release earnings.
Homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. and lender Freddie Mac are also scheduled to report quarterly results.
Dow Jones industrial futures rose 105, or 0.80 percent, to 13,098. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures gained 9.70, or 0.67 percent, to 1,447.20. Nasdaq 100 index futures added 14.00, or 0.69 percent, to 2,042.00.
Crude oil futures for December delivery rose 97 cents to $95.61 a barrel in pre-opening trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The dollar fell against most other major currencies, but edged up against the yen. Gold rose.
Stock markets overseas bounced higher.
In Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.12 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 1.13 percent. In European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 increased 0.50 percent, Germany's DAX index lifted 0.72 percent, and France's CAC-40 gained 0.36 percent.

何鸿燊预期 恒指年底有望直扑4万点

（香港综合讯）对于市场关注深圳方面稍早前侦破大陆人汇钱去港炒股的地下钱庄一案，并忧虑此等负面消息将会影响港股表现，信德集团主席何鸿燊表示，有关事件对大市不会构成太大影响，更预期恒指年底可直扑4万点。
何鸿燊在10月份的时候，就预期恒指突破3万点后，有望上试4万点。
据香港《大公报》报道，对于港股受隔夜美股急挫、大陆加息阴霾，加上深圳当地银行限制居民提款措施的影响下，上周五港股大跌1136点，何鸿燊前天表示，大陆打击不合法的地下钱庄，或多或少会减少港股的交投，却相信有关影响只属短期性。
他指出，现时港股主要由基金操控，相信短期情况或会改变，由于港股基本因素良好，故看好后市表现，更估计到今年底时，恒指有机会升至接近4万点的水平，即较周五收市报2万7614点，高出1万2386点或44％。
美国经济情况一直为市场焦点，次贷风暴亦困扰整个金融市场，工银亚洲董事兼副总经理黄远辉接受电台访问时表示，该行并无持有次贷抵押相关产品，估计当地银行涉及次贷抵押产品数量也不多，相信直接影响并不会太大。然而，在循环影响下，却可能会录得损失。
他又指出，美国次贷危机将会拖累经济，使增长放缓，纵然减息刺激通胀上扬，却相信美国联储局主席伯南克仍会以经济放缓问题为重点关注对象，故此不排除当局于12月议息期间，将会再一次减息。

<----- shall we follow the Casino King and bet on HSI CW?

Stocks Fall Amid Banking Concerns

Stocks Fall on Goldman Downgrade of Banks, Including Citigroup; Homebuilders, Airlines Fall

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street resumed its slide Monday as investors absorbed a gloomy outlook for the banking sector as well as bleak news about housing. The major stock market indexes each fell more than 1.5 percent, with the Dow Jones industrial average giving up more than 200 points.
Concerns about the banking sector dominated the session. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s downgrade of large banks, and its estimate that Citigroup Inc. would have to write down $15 billion over the next two quarters due to its exposure to risky debt, unnerved Wall Street.
Other sectors suffered big hits during the session, including homebuilders and airlines.
The latest concerns about the housing sector arose after a downcast survey from the National Association of Homebuilders and a lowered forecast from home-improvement retailer Lowe's Cos. The worry on Wall Street is that the housing market is getting so weak it will crimp consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity and has helped keep the economy afloat. Ahead of the holiday shopping season, any signs that Americans are pulling back could prevent a December rally.
The NAHB's November housing forecast remained unchanged at its lowest-ever level even after the October figure was revised to 19 from 18. Economists polled by Thomson/IFR had expected the index would come in at 18. The survey began in 1985.
"I think that a lot of folks are digesting the news from last week and they're worried about the economy and the ability to grow earnings at the larger companies in America," said Rob Lutts, chief investment officer at Cabot Money Management Inc. in Salem, Mass.
The Dow industrials fell 218.35, or 1.66 percent, to 12,958.44.

US Economic Calender (19/11/2007 to 23/11/2007)

On coming Monday, watch for company news out of the financial and housing sectors to move the markets, followed by the 1:00 p.m. ET release of the housing market index. New weakness in this important indicator from home builders would darken expectations for existing home and new home sales data.

汇丰控股预测 中国明年投资海外3600亿

汇丰控股昨日发表的研究报告指出，在不久的将来，中国的机构投资者将向国际证券市场进发，预期包括QDII基金、保险资金、中国投资公司及散户在明年投资于海外市场的资金将达到2460亿美元（3600亿新元）。
报告同时表示，该行本周曾赴北京与合格境内机构投资者（QDII）基金经理进行会晤，其中大部分仍然专注于香港上市的中资股，但对于投资韩国、新加坡、澳洲、台湾及印度的兴趣正在增加。
另外，虽然近期中国政府加强限制境内资金流入香港炒港股，但该研究报告表示，若以投资于单一市场设下上限的指引来分析，在投资于海外市场的2460亿美元当中，可能有1530亿美元资金投资于香港以外，投资于香港的资金则为940亿美元。
报告预期，中国容许个人投资者直接投资港股的计划（港股东直通车）将于明年第二季推出，至2008年底，估计会有270亿美元资金透过该计划投资港股。
报告也引述中国基金经理表示，中国大陆或将对QDII基金于单一市场投资比例作出限制，每一地区上限料为30%。

罗奇：亚洲股市半年后才买

综合讯）摩根士丹利亚洲区主席罗奇（Stephen Roach）昨预期，美国经济放缓，影响亚洲经济及股市，区内市场未来6至9个月会继续调整。他不认同在经济全球化现实下亚洲区经济可和美国影响“脱钩”的说法，单计内地就有两成一的商品出口美国。他同时认为，美国次按问题如果爆破，对经济的影响可能较7年前科网股爆破大5倍。
香港文汇报报道，罗奇昨在港出席研讨会时指出，如果认为亚洲可以在全球经济动荡时成为“绿洲”，那是非常可笑的。因为亚洲是高度依赖出口为导向的经济区域，大约有60%的产品需要出口到世界其他地区，最终目的地往往是美国、欧洲和日本。相反，亚洲的成功，恰恰是全球化对经济发展作用的最佳示范，而全球化就是整合。他指出，全球化与“脱钩”理论两者不可兼信。美国经济放缓，将无可避免影响到区内的经济及股市。
他表示，目前亚洲股市的估值偏高，对投资者来说并不吸引，相信现阶段会继续调整，直至在未来6至9个月后才变得吸引。
对美元贬值，罗其预测这个状况将会持续，但对亚洲的影响，不会比美国消费者信心危机来得大。

Stocks Fall Amid Concern About Consumers

Stocks Slide on Anxiety About Health of Consumer Spending Ahead of Holidays, State of Banks
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street skidded lower Thursday as investors grappled with concerns about the strength of consumer spending and the overall economy after downbeat comments from J.C. Penney Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.
Investors soured on retailers and banks, while falling oil prices hurt shares of energy companies. Wall Street is concerned about rising gas prices. Although oil has come off the highs seen last week, prices remain elevated and could crimp consumer spending as the all-important holiday shopping season approaches.
"The J.C. Penney comments in terms of their guidance have sort of put another nail in retail. The assumption is the consumer has given up," said Charlie Smith, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh. "Three-dollar to $3.20 a gallon gas and house prices falling at 5 percent a year is really a double-whammy the consumer can't overcome."
Wells Fargo president and chief executive John Stumpf said the housing market is seeing its steepest decline since the Great Depression. The bank has boosted its loss provisions in recent quarters to cover increasing defaults on mortgages and home-equity products. Still, the company has been able to avoid big writedowns that other banks have faced because it has little exposure to some complex financial instruments such as mortgage-backed securities that have recently soured.
Investors also reacted to a Barron's report late Wednesday that a General Electric Asset Management bond fund has suffered losses in mortgage-backed securities. The General Electric Co. unit is offering investors the option to redeem their holdings in the short-term institutional bond fund at 96 cents on the dollar. The losses in the bond fund raised concerns that the squeeze on credit markets could spread and hurt small investors.
Barclays Group said its Barclays Capital investment unit became the latest financial institution to book a writedown on losses stemming from turbulent credit markets. The business took a $2.7 billion charge in the third quarter but the also said Thursday its profit beat last year's strong performance.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 120.96, or 0.91 percent, to 13,110.05.
Broader stock indicators also declined. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 19.43, or 1.32 percent, to 1,451.15. The Nasdaq composite index fell 25.81, or 0.98 percent, to 2,618.51.

Some interesting dialogue to share

These are some interesting dialogue that I had with a nice gentleman from the forum.

I won't reveal his identity and his part of the dialogue as this is private and confidential.

However, I will just list some replies that I had made to him :) to show how much fun I had..

漫漫长夜, 是红是绿，言之过早。
小女不才， 定力有限，无心睡眠，
唯有苦等， 守株待兔，方能安枕。

大哥喝了竹叶青， 喜见股市变牛精，
小妹虽见股市劲， 欲不免胆战心惊，
因妹手头好多股， 股市闭还卖不出。
今晚阿斗若不起， 妹只好悬梁自尽。

其实美股是绿红， 狮股未必有痛痒，
妹曾说悬梁自尽， 实只是胡言乱语，
妹虽非家财万贯， 小风险还可承受，
哥股精兼会看相， 妹欣慰今遇高人。

今天早起探阿斗，惊见阿斗满身红，
以为喝了竹叶青，昨晚早早就入寝，
南坷一梦才方醒，妹已吓得脸青青，
现只望狮股争气，别让阿斗看不起。

大哥所言不无道理， 现今股市颓废低迷，
妹子唯有苦等良机， 望开花结果在年底。
虽妹不乏裙下之众， 贴士好坏却难分辨，
老美阿甘毫不争气， 贴士再准也未必行。

妹子目前是闺女， 选择夫君没经验，
布斯明年将下台， 小妹看好希拉莉，
就算美佬欠债多， 她也必逢凶化吉，
妹子无福金融业， 目前任职贸易圈，
大哥毋须来担心， 小妹只是小文员。

小妹出身小康家，才气出众不敢当，
只是从小爱书香，抬举小妹我怕怕。
您说妹子我自谦，我说大哥才厉害，
大哥虽然仍无业，股经精通顶瓜瓜。
您说妹子有福气，大哥怎样看出来？

Hope he does not mind :)

短線策略逢低做好 - John Mullen

港股昨日又再現V 形型反彈，計算自今年八月十七日在內是第二次，恒指昨先跌後回升，高低波幅過千點，現貨收市升137 點，收報27,803 點，大市成交1,547 億元。期指升160 點，收報27,787 點，成交逾8.1 萬張。
昨日期指無法如預期反彈上28,300 水平，最高位僅27,979 。細想為何昨日早市港股由即市高位計再大跌近千點，筆者相信是大戶部署下午反彈攻勢前的最後一跌，大戶想利用市場普遍認定的三個支持位，即是27,000 的心理關口、由19,387 升上至31,958 後回吐0.382 水平而計算出的27,156 ，及周一低位的27,350 均是良好防線區的心態，但在一舉沽破三大支持後，造成一個市場大跌市氣氛，這樣他們於午市買貨時會更為容易。
究竟大戶是平掉淡倉還是再建立好倉，筆者認為兩者兼有，但以平淡倉盤量較多，因為目前環球股市氣氛仍未有見底回升訊號，因此不用急於建好倉準備反彈，所以未來指數在28,300 至28,500 以及28,500 至29,000 都會遇到不少阻力。
其實短期大市走勢主要由兩大因素影響，第一是貨幣供應，第二是心理因素，筆者認為只有在兩者皆為負面時才會出現較大型的調整，現時港股貨幣供應仍充裕，相信再大幅調整的機會不高，建議於27,500 樓上逢低小注建立好倉，以28,500 為目標。

Futures point higher on profit views

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock futures jumped on Tuesday, pointing to a rebound after four straight sessions of losses, as higher-than-expected profit at Wal-Mart Stores Inc lifted sentiment.
Oil prices below $94 a barrel added to the positive tone.
Shares of Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, rose 3.3 percent to $44.77 before the opening bell after it said the 8 percent rise in third-quarter earnings came on stronger sales abroad, tighter cost controls and efforts to lure customers into stores earlier than ever for holiday shopping.
"I kind of think the market is going to encounter a technical rebound today... We had solid corporate news already," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.
However, home improvement retailer Home Depot Inc reported results that missed expectations and forecast a steeper fall on full-year earnings.
S&P 500 futures rose 13.80 points and were well above fair value, a formula to evaluate pricing taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.
Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 98 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 21.50 points.
U.S. stocks fell for a fourth session on Monday, led by a widening sell-off in technology stocks late in the day on worries about business spending, while a drop in oil prices hit energy producers' shares.
News Corp Chairman Rupert Murdoch said the company had made a strong start to this quarter, with the global credit-market squeeze so far not having much affect on forward advertising.
On the economic agenda, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to issue its Pending Home Sales Index for September at 3 p.m.
Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a 2.8 percent drop versus a 6.5 percent fall in the August release.
On Monday, the Dow fell 0.4 percent to 12,987.55 points -- its first finish below 13,000 since early August.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 14.52 points, or 1.00 percent, to finish at 1,439.18. Monday's loss marked the S&P's longest losing streak in nine months. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 43.81 points, or 1.67 percent, to 2,584.13.

<------- Guess most people can sleep better tonight, finally..

拋售高潮未出現 - 寶維

期指昨出現裂口低開，隨即下破28000，觸發新一輪沽盤，短線走勢一浪低於一浪，並跌近預期目標區，以27627收市，急挫1244點，低水38 點。美國次按危機，再引發全球股市調整，亞洲區股市無一倖免，金融股短期成弱勢股，滙控（005）昨日低見136元，連續3日裂口下跌，成交同時上升。期指跌浪延伸，近期累積跌幅接近今次升浪的15%，惟近幾日跌市成交金額反而下跌，似乎市場未達拋售高潮，反彈後應再尋底。
短線隨機指數向淡，14RSI跌至43水平，波浪形態偏弱，跌破上周低位區28300，推動浪力度轉強，淡友可能順勢追擊，向下考驗27200。日線圖出現第4個裂口，昨日低位剛跌近 50日線，雖有短線技術反彈，但裂口區壓力重重，料維持在低位區鞏固。H股期指加速下滑，裂口低開後即跌破17000，反彈力度有限，沽盤大增，以 16655低收，急瀉1018點，低水1點，成交合約升至6萬張。內地股市全面下滑，人行調升存款準備金後，市場預期有進一步宏調的可能，六行三保齊齊下跌，資源股及中資地產股偏弱，令國企股全線報跌。

H股期指仍未見底
H股期指已跌近預期目標16527，昨日低見16576，即低一級4浪支持，由於裂口向下，17200水平會成為本周初的反彈阻力，後市仍視乎內地股市走向。H股期指現水平已跌近大升浪調整的0.382倍，惟成交增加，跌浪會作延伸。

後市悲觀港股未跌完 - 沈振盈

港股再跌1117點，險守50日平均線，形態上已形成了「頭肩頂」，頸線28400點已破，就算出現後抽，也仍有再試低位之可能。恒指雖已從歷史高位31958回落逾4000點，但由於頂位的基數較以往大，應該尚未見底。今次的跌浪源於外圍市況，美元疲弱，次按問題，觸發美股下調。中國亦隨着國家政策要冷卻過熱的經濟，開始進一步收緊銀根，港股亦因而受影響。10月份的港股被資金胡亂推高，令股價升至不合理水平，溫總煞停「直通車」，正是撥亂反正的良策。筆者對今次調整浪的看法比較悲觀，皆因美元的疲弱已令日圓升破重要阻力位113，足夠迫使「套息交易」盤要拆倉，對股市、金市及油市皆出現沽壓。而「次按問題」所衍生出來的「套現需求」其實仍未解決，短期內會對全球投資市場構成壓力。

沽金股油股
資源商品股昨日出現較大的跌幅，早前就算金價升、油價升，相關資源股已明顯出現沽壓。上周五日圓上升，觸發資金開始在金市及油市套現，資源商品股份帶來強大沽壓。至此，大家應該明白為何筆者早在周前已指出，中石油（857）、神華（1088）等資源股為短期的「高危」股份。其實資源商品價格不能無止境地升，資源商品價格越升，經濟前景就越淡。所以，筆者在去年不斷在低位叫大家買紫金（2899），到了近期高位已不再推介，沽了就算，不要再追。前周建議大家開put沽中石油，至今已穩坐釣魚船，今次中石油A股上市，又一次是國壽（2628）的翻版，股神畢菲特應可爭回一口氣。上帝要你滅亡，必先令你瘋狂；股市也是一樣，市場情緒必定要令大部份人對大市建立了絕對的信心，將一切危機拋諸腦後，才會出現大幅的調整。

作者沈振盈為證監會持牌人士