Ben Bernanke & Co. lower a key interest rate for the third consecutive time to help stave off recession. Markets plunge as Wall Street was hoping for a bigger cut.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Federal Reserve lowered an important short-term rate by a quarter of a percentage point Tuesday, the latest in a series of rate cuts that the central bank hopes will stimulate an economy some fear is on the brink of a recession.
But stocks plunged following the Fed's announcement as Wall Street was disappointed the Fed did not act more aggressively. The Dow dropped nearly 300 points, or 2.1 percent, while the S&P and Nasdaq each fell about 2.5 percent.
"The Fed needed to cut more now in order to fend off the credit crisis that has intensified in the past month," said John Derrick, director of research at U.S. Global Investors, a money management firm in San Antonio with more than $5.5 billion in assets.
This was the third straight time that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and fellow policy makers decided to cut its federal funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate that affects how much interest consumers pay on credit cards, home equity lines of credit and auto loans.
The federal funds rate now stands at 4.25 percent. The central bank also cut its discount rate, which is what banks pay to borrow directly from the Fed, by a quarter-point to 4.75 percent on Tuesday.
One member of the Fed's policy making committee, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren, voted for a half-point cut in the fed funds rate.
In fact, some investors had been holding out hope that the Fed would lower rates by a half of a percentage point as it did in September since several banks have been forced in the past few months to take massive writedowns due to exposure to bad mortgage loans.
"The market is dropping hard. I think that investors probably priced in a little more than a quarter-point cut," said Randy Carver, president of Carver Financial Services, a Mentor, Ohio-based investment firm with $680 million in assets under management.
Leading up to Tuesday's meeting, several economists indicated that the Fed may need to lower rates several more times in early 2008 in order to keep the economy from slipping into a prolonged slump.
But the Fed's statement reflected a less dire view of the economy than what many on Wall Street believe - a possible sign that the central bank might not cut rates at its next meeting in January.
The Fed acknowledged that "economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending." It also said that "strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks."
The Fed added that "some inflation risks remain" and the Fed "will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully."
That tone disappointed investors, who had been hoping the Fed would take more decisive action to clean up the mortgage mess that's plaguing Wall Street and is starting to take its toll on Main Street.
"This was a big mistake. They should have at least cut the discount rate by 50 points. I think that was a big disappointment to Wall Street," said William Rutherford, president of Rutherford Investment Management, a money manager based in Portland, Ore. "The Fed must contain the housing problem. If it doesn't, we are definitely heading into a recession."
Another investment strategist suggested that the Fed, despite what it said Tuesday, will continue to lower rates in January and perhaps several more times in 2008.
"The good news is that the Fed is going to be more flexible. Even though the market is selling off, there has to be more to come. This is not the last rate cut," said Hank Smith, chief investment officer of Haverford Investments, a Radnor, Pa.-based money manager with $6.5 billion in assets under management.
Concerns that the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis is spreading sparked President George W. Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to unveil a plan last week that would freeze interest rates for some subprime borrowers whose adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to reset in 2008.
But one market expert said investors were wrong to think that the Fed would keep cutting rates drastically just to save banks and troubled borrowers.
"The Fed is not going to bail out the market. Time will heal these wounds. People don't want to hear that but it's the real world," said Rich Berg, chief executive officer of Performance Trust Capital Partners, a Chicago-based bond trading firm.
Carver said one reason the Fed may have decided to not cut rates by a half-point is because it is still waiting to see how consumer spending holds up during the holidays. He argues that the Fed won't want to cut rates too drastically if the economy doesn't really need it.
To that end, Carver pointed out that the labor report for November, released last Friday, showed no major ill effects of the mortgage crisis since employers added more jobs than expected and the unemployment rate held steady.
"The Fed is looking two to three months out and doesn't want to cut too much if there is some decent strength in the economy," Carver said.."The Fed doesn't want to overstimulate the economy since that could cause bigger problems down the road."
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Friday, December 7, 2007
Subprime crisis plan boosts Wall Street
New York (dpa) - Homebuilders and financial companies led US stocks higher Thursday after President George W Bush announced a plan aimed at reversing a tide of defaults on subprime home mortgages.
Countrywide Financial Corp, the largest US mortgage lender, surged 19 per cent for the day's biggest gain in the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Fannie Mae, the biggest source of financing for US home loans, rose 7 per cent.
A deal the Bush administration brokered among financial lenders and investors in securities linked to subprime mortgages includes a possible five-year freeze in the interest rate paid by struggling homeowners on their loans.
Countrywide, Fannie Mae and other financial firms have been hard- hit by the subprime meltdown, which has caused billions of dollars in losses and turmoil in financial markets.
The S&P 500 rose 22.33 points, or 1.5 per cent, to 1,507.34. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average added 174.93, or 1.3 per cent, to 13,619.89. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index gained 42.67, or 1.6 per cent, to 2,709.03.
The US dollar slipped to 68.37 euro cents in New York from 68.42 on Wednesday. The dollar rose to 111.27 Japanese yen from 110.88.
Gold rose 3.40 dollars to 807.10 dollars per fine ounce.
<---------- Finally he has decided to do something about it
Countrywide Financial Corp, the largest US mortgage lender, surged 19 per cent for the day's biggest gain in the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Fannie Mae, the biggest source of financing for US home loans, rose 7 per cent.
A deal the Bush administration brokered among financial lenders and investors in securities linked to subprime mortgages includes a possible five-year freeze in the interest rate paid by struggling homeowners on their loans.
Countrywide, Fannie Mae and other financial firms have been hard- hit by the subprime meltdown, which has caused billions of dollars in losses and turmoil in financial markets.
The S&P 500 rose 22.33 points, or 1.5 per cent, to 1,507.34. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average added 174.93, or 1.3 per cent, to 13,619.89. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index gained 42.67, or 1.6 per cent, to 2,709.03.
The US dollar slipped to 68.37 euro cents in New York from 68.42 on Wednesday. The dollar rose to 111.27 Japanese yen from 110.88.
Gold rose 3.40 dollars to 807.10 dollars per fine ounce.
<---------- Finally he has decided to do something about it
Monday, December 3, 2007
华侨银行李彩莲： 目前投资股市 石油或抗跌股可作首选
次贷阴影仍然笼罩市场，加上已经步入年底，股市未来几个星期将继续出现短期波动。华侨银行投资研究部主管李彩莲认为，投资者如果要在这个时候进场，应该谨慎选择股项，优先考虑石油股或抗跌股。
各地股市今年来频频创高峰，虽然经过11月的调整后，股价从高处下滑，但仍然取得可观的增长，表现最出色的是石油相关股，例如Swiber控股今年来便上升了245％，而种植股也因为油价上升而间接受惠，金光农业资源(Golden Agri)起了217％。
此外，龙筹股今年来的表现也不错，中远投资(Cosco)领先群雄，今年起了161％。
李彩莲看好石油类股与龙筹股的强劲势头将延续到新的一年。
李彩莲昨天在该银行主办的一个小型讨论会上表示，过去三年她都一直在推荐石油股，当时的油价介于每桶40美元到70美元，如今已经涨至90美元，她相信在需求的带动下，油价将继续保持在高水平。
她指出，石油公司自2004年当油价还在每桶40美元的时候便已经开始投资，目前的油价意味盈利率越来越高，而即使油价下调20％或30％，石油公司还是有利可图。
全球各地的岸外钻油设施目前都几乎全面投产，而大多数的升降式钻油台(jackup rig)的年龄已超过25年，在这个大前提下，李彩莲认为受惠最大的将是吉宝企业(KepCorp)、胜科海事(SembCorp)、中远投资、以斯拉控股(Ezra Holdings)。
至于龙筹股方面，她建议基建股、消费股、房地产股，以及石油股。
李彩莲透露，她与一些获得合格境内机构投资者(QDII)资格的基金经理会面时，他们都表示如果在香港以外的股市投资，他们将选择新加坡，因此本地股市未来将不缺资金。然而，许多QDII的基金经理对于新加坡市场还不是很熟悉，因此她预期要真正看到QDII资金流入，恐怕还需要一年的时间。
当第一波的QDII资金流入时，由于对本地股市不熟悉，基金经理相信会选择市值与知名度较高的股票，或是他们所熟悉的龙筹股。
跟区域股市比较，本地股市的股价与账面价值比率(Price-to-Book)相对低，少于2倍，而本益比也比许多市场具吸引力，除了石油股和龙筹股之外，李彩莲认为投资者也可考虑新加坡报业控股(SPH)、新科工程(ST Engineering)、SMRT企业、新航(SIA)等抗跌股。
各地股市今年来频频创高峰，虽然经过11月的调整后，股价从高处下滑，但仍然取得可观的增长，表现最出色的是石油相关股，例如Swiber控股今年来便上升了245％，而种植股也因为油价上升而间接受惠，金光农业资源(Golden Agri)起了217％。
此外，龙筹股今年来的表现也不错，中远投资(Cosco)领先群雄，今年起了161％。
李彩莲看好石油类股与龙筹股的强劲势头将延续到新的一年。
李彩莲昨天在该银行主办的一个小型讨论会上表示，过去三年她都一直在推荐石油股，当时的油价介于每桶40美元到70美元，如今已经涨至90美元，她相信在需求的带动下，油价将继续保持在高水平。
她指出，石油公司自2004年当油价还在每桶40美元的时候便已经开始投资，目前的油价意味盈利率越来越高，而即使油价下调20％或30％，石油公司还是有利可图。
全球各地的岸外钻油设施目前都几乎全面投产，而大多数的升降式钻油台(jackup rig)的年龄已超过25年，在这个大前提下，李彩莲认为受惠最大的将是吉宝企业(KepCorp)、胜科海事(SembCorp)、中远投资、以斯拉控股(Ezra Holdings)。
至于龙筹股方面，她建议基建股、消费股、房地产股，以及石油股。
李彩莲透露，她与一些获得合格境内机构投资者(QDII)资格的基金经理会面时，他们都表示如果在香港以外的股市投资，他们将选择新加坡，因此本地股市未来将不缺资金。然而，许多QDII的基金经理对于新加坡市场还不是很熟悉，因此她预期要真正看到QDII资金流入，恐怕还需要一年的时间。
当第一波的QDII资金流入时，由于对本地股市不熟悉，基金经理相信会选择市值与知名度较高的股票，或是他们所熟悉的龙筹股。
跟区域股市比较，本地股市的股价与账面价值比率(Price-to-Book)相对低，少于2倍，而本益比也比许多市场具吸引力，除了石油股和龙筹股之外，李彩莲认为投资者也可考虑新加坡报业控股(SPH)、新科工程(ST Engineering)、SMRT企业、新航(SIA)等抗跌股。
Wall Street Eyes Jobs, Retail Sales Data
Wall Street Eyes Data on Jobs and Retail Sales, Which Could Make or Break Santa Claus Rally
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street's newfound confidence that interest rates are headed lower may not be enough to fuel a December rally if the economy looks like it's weakening.
This week's reports on the job market and retail sales, along with readings on the manufacturing and service sectors, will be key in determining how well the economy is weathering a housing market that most experts predict will keep deteriorating well into the new year.
The stock market heads into the final lap of 2007 having posted a 3.01 percent rise in the Dow Jones industrial average last week, a 2.81 percent gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 index, and a 2.48 percent advance in the Nasdaq composite index.
It was the best weekly point gain for the Dow -- the blue chips rose nearly 391 -- in more than four years. The advance was driven by hints of an upcoming rate cut from Federal Reserve officials and news that Citigroup Inc., Freddie Mac and E-Trade Financial Corp. were able to raise cash to offset some of their debt.
But the positive week nonetheless capped off the blue-chip index's most negative month in five years. Financial companies still face billions of dollars in write-downs in the fourth quarter. And though oil prices have retreated from record highs, the dollar remains weak against rivals including the euro, the pound and the Canadian dollar -- a trend some argue shows that rates should stay put.
Moreover, even if the Fed does loosen its policy at its Dec. 11 meeting, rate cuts can only go so far in boosting a flagging economy. Last week, Goldman Sachs upped the chances of a recession to between 40 percent and 45 percent, while current and former government officials offered some of the year's most dreary economic outlooks.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech Thursday at the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce that gross domestic product is slowing "significantly" in the fourth quarter, despite having grown 4.9 percent in the third quarter.
A day earlier, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said housing is deteriorating at a "very, very rapid" rate, and that "I don't think we have seen the bottom."
And former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, in a somber speech Thursday to bankers at an American Banker/SourceMedia event, said it would be unprecedented, considering the size of the headwinds the economy faces, for expansion to continue.
"It is quite clear that the substantial majority of foreclosures that will take place in this wave have not yet taken place," he said.
Though current Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has been meeting with mortgage industry officials and regulators about possibly keeping low introductory loan rates from resetting at much higher levels, signs point to a very shaky economy in 2008.
For stocks to rally this month, investors will want evidence that consumers are still spending.
Major retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp., release November sales figures Thursday, which should shine more light on how strong holiday shopping will be this year.
Data so far have suggested respectable post-Thanksgiving sales, but investors are concerned that shoppers will be hesitant due to still-lofty gas prices and sinking home prices. Wall Street's also worried that sales have been decent so far only because prices have been sharply discounted, which is good for consumers but bad for companies' profits.
Consumer spending relies heavily on employment, so Wall Street will also be closely eyeing, as always, the Labor Department's monthly report on the job market. On Friday, economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR expect the report to show November payrolls rose solidly, but by a smaller amount than in October, and that the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.8 percent from 4.7 percent.
Also this week, the Institute for Supply Management releases its indexes on manufacturing and service sector activity. Economists anticipate that growth in both areas in November was slower than in October.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street's newfound confidence that interest rates are headed lower may not be enough to fuel a December rally if the economy looks like it's weakening.
This week's reports on the job market and retail sales, along with readings on the manufacturing and service sectors, will be key in determining how well the economy is weathering a housing market that most experts predict will keep deteriorating well into the new year.
The stock market heads into the final lap of 2007 having posted a 3.01 percent rise in the Dow Jones industrial average last week, a 2.81 percent gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 index, and a 2.48 percent advance in the Nasdaq composite index.
It was the best weekly point gain for the Dow -- the blue chips rose nearly 391 -- in more than four years. The advance was driven by hints of an upcoming rate cut from Federal Reserve officials and news that Citigroup Inc., Freddie Mac and E-Trade Financial Corp. were able to raise cash to offset some of their debt.
But the positive week nonetheless capped off the blue-chip index's most negative month in five years. Financial companies still face billions of dollars in write-downs in the fourth quarter. And though oil prices have retreated from record highs, the dollar remains weak against rivals including the euro, the pound and the Canadian dollar -- a trend some argue shows that rates should stay put.
Moreover, even if the Fed does loosen its policy at its Dec. 11 meeting, rate cuts can only go so far in boosting a flagging economy. Last week, Goldman Sachs upped the chances of a recession to between 40 percent and 45 percent, while current and former government officials offered some of the year's most dreary economic outlooks.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech Thursday at the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce that gross domestic product is slowing "significantly" in the fourth quarter, despite having grown 4.9 percent in the third quarter.
A day earlier, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said housing is deteriorating at a "very, very rapid" rate, and that "I don't think we have seen the bottom."
And former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, in a somber speech Thursday to bankers at an American Banker/SourceMedia event, said it would be unprecedented, considering the size of the headwinds the economy faces, for expansion to continue.
"It is quite clear that the substantial majority of foreclosures that will take place in this wave have not yet taken place," he said.
Though current Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has been meeting with mortgage industry officials and regulators about possibly keeping low introductory loan rates from resetting at much higher levels, signs point to a very shaky economy in 2008.
For stocks to rally this month, investors will want evidence that consumers are still spending.
Major retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp., release November sales figures Thursday, which should shine more light on how strong holiday shopping will be this year.
Data so far have suggested respectable post-Thanksgiving sales, but investors are concerned that shoppers will be hesitant due to still-lofty gas prices and sinking home prices. Wall Street's also worried that sales have been decent so far only because prices have been sharply discounted, which is good for consumers but bad for companies' profits.
Consumer spending relies heavily on employment, so Wall Street will also be closely eyeing, as always, the Labor Department's monthly report on the job market. On Friday, economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR expect the report to show November payrolls rose solidly, but by a smaller amount than in October, and that the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.8 percent from 4.7 percent.
Also this week, the Institute for Supply Management releases its indexes on manufacturing and service sector activity. Economists anticipate that growth in both areas in November was slower than in October.
Friday, November 30, 2007
About Warren Buffet
There was a one hour interview on CNBC with Warren Buffet, the second richest man who has donated $31 billion to charity.
Here are some very interesting aspects of his life:
1.He bought his first share at age 11 and he now regrets that he started too late!
2.He bought a small farm at age 14 with savings from delivering newspapers.
3.He still lives in the same small 3-bedroom house in mid-town Omaha, which he bought after he got married 50 years ago. He says that he has everything he needs in that house. His house does not have a wall or a fence.
4.He drives his own car everywhere and does not have a driver or security people around him.
5.He never travels by private jet, although he owns the world's largest private jet company.
6.His company, Berkshire Hathaway, owns 63 companies. He writes only one letter each year to the CEOs of these companies, giving them goals for the year. He never holds meetings or calls them on a regular basis. He has given his CEO's only two rules. Rule number 1: do not lose any of your share holder's money. Rule number 2: Do not forget rule number 1.
7.He does not socialize with the high society crowd. His past time after he gets home is to make himself some pop corn and watch Television.
8.Bill Gates, the world's richest man met him for the first time only 5 years ago. Bill Gates did not think he had anything in common with Warren Buffet. So he had scheduled his meeting only for half hour. But when Gates met him, the meeting lasted for ten hours and Bill Gates became a devotee of Warren Buffet.
9.Warren Buffet does not carry a cell phone, nor has a computer on his desk.
His advice to young people: "Stay away from credit cards and invest in yourself and Remember:
A. Money doesn't create man but it is the man who created money.
B. Live your lives, as simple as you are.
C. Don't do what others say, just listen to them, but do what you feel good.
D. Don't go on brand name; just wear those things in which u feel comfortable.
E. Don't waste your money on unnecessary things; just spend on them who really in need rather.
F. After all it's your life then why gives chance to others to rule our life."
Here are some very interesting aspects of his life:
1.He bought his first share at age 11 and he now regrets that he started too late!
2.He bought a small farm at age 14 with savings from delivering newspapers.
3.He still lives in the same small 3-bedroom house in mid-town Omaha, which he bought after he got married 50 years ago. He says that he has everything he needs in that house. His house does not have a wall or a fence.
4.He drives his own car everywhere and does not have a driver or security people around him.
5.He never travels by private jet, although he owns the world's largest private jet company.
6.His company, Berkshire Hathaway, owns 63 companies. He writes only one letter each year to the CEOs of these companies, giving them goals for the year. He never holds meetings or calls them on a regular basis. He has given his CEO's only two rules. Rule number 1: do not lose any of your share holder's money. Rule number 2: Do not forget rule number 1.
7.He does not socialize with the high society crowd. His past time after he gets home is to make himself some pop corn and watch Television.
8.Bill Gates, the world's richest man met him for the first time only 5 years ago. Bill Gates did not think he had anything in common with Warren Buffet. So he had scheduled his meeting only for half hour. But when Gates met him, the meeting lasted for ten hours and Bill Gates became a devotee of Warren Buffet.
9.Warren Buffet does not carry a cell phone, nor has a computer on his desk.
His advice to young people: "Stay away from credit cards and invest in yourself and Remember:
A. Money doesn't create man but it is the man who created money.
B. Live your lives, as simple as you are.
C. Don't do what others say, just listen to them, but do what you feel good.
D. Don't go on brand name; just wear those things in which u feel comfortable.
E. Don't waste your money on unnecessary things; just spend on them who really in need rather.
F. After all it's your life then why gives chance to others to rule our life."
Stocks Rise Moderately After Big Run-Up
Stocks Extend Rally With Moderate Gains; Investors Await Bernanke Speech
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street extended its rally with modest gains in the major indexes following two days of sharp advances, despite economic readings that painted a mixed picture of the economy.
Though the indexes rose, declining issues narrowly outpaced advancers on the New York Stock Exchange.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the market posted its biggest two-day rally in five years. Hopes have been growing that financial companies may be starting to recover from the credit crisis and that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to calm the markets.
Wall Street's anticipation of a rate cut follows comments from a Fed official Wednesday and comes ahead of a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled for Thursday evening.
Oil prices spiked early Thursday then fell back somewhat after a fire at an Enbridge Energy pipeline carrying crude from Canada to the Midwest.
The oil price recovery gave some strength to energy stocks. Meanwhile, financial companies, which had shown gains Wednesday, retreated as did retailers following a weak showing by Sears Holdings Corp.
Aside from a reading on third-quarter growth, economic news didn't offer investors much reason to cheer.
"The data's weak, and says to us that the Fed needs to stay engaged here," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 22.28, or 0.17 percent, to 13,311.73. In the three sessions since a pullback Monday, the Dow has jumped 568.29, of 4.5 percent.
Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index edged up 0.70, or 0.05 percent, to 1,469.72, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 5.22, or 0.20 percent, to 2,668.13.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 9 to 7 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 3.43 billion shares compared with 4.45 billion traded Wednesday.
For the week, the Dow is up 2.55 percent, while the S&P is up 2.01 percent and the and the Nasdaq is up 2.75 percent. The pace of the gains, however, has been fast enough that a bit of profit-taking wouldn't come as a surprise on Wall Street. The declines that preceded the latest surge had been sharp as well, however. By the end of the day Monday, the market's major indexes had fallen more than 10 percent from levels in mid-October -- meeting the technical definition of a correction.
Bond prices rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note falling to 3.94 percent from 4.05 percent late Wednesday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. The dollar rose against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 39 cents to settle at $91.01 a barrel in choppy trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The rise in oil helped energy companies. Exxon Mobil Corp. rose 67 cents to $88.59, while ConocoPhillips advanced $1.10 to $78.82.
Among financials, Merrill Lynch & Co. fell 38 cents to $57.41, while Bank of America Corp. fell 22 cents to $44.63.
Stocks' fluctuations followed the mixed economic readings.
The Commerce Department reported that economic growth in the third quarter was 4.9 percent, stronger than originally thought, although analysts are anticipating a slowdown in the fourth quarter.
U.S. home prices showed a quarterly decline for the first time in 13 years in the third quarter, according to figures from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which reported a 0.4 percent drop nationwide for the July-September period.
The economic reports came as investors awaited clarity on the Fed's direction on interest rates. Bernanke was slated to speak Thursday evening before the Chamber of Commerce in Charlotte, N.C.
Investors have sent stocks sharply higher in recent days in part because Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn suggested another interest rate cut could be in store. The Fed, which has cut rates at each of its last two meetings, is slated to meet again on Dec. 11.
Wall Street also has been calmed by evidence that companies hurt by subprime problems have found financial backers to help stem the damage.
In the latest such action, E-Trade Financial Corp. said on Thursday that Citadel Investment Group would provide $2.5 billion in cash to shore up the company's balance sheet. E-Trade also said Mitchell H. Caplan had resigned as chief executive.
E-Trade, which holds billions in risky mortgage debt, said it will sell its entire portfolio of asset-backed securities to Citadel for $800 million and book a $2.2 billion charge on the sale. E-Trade fell 46 cents, or 8.7 percent, to $4.82.
In other corporate news, Sears Holdings, parent of its namesake department store chain and Kmart, said profits plunged to a penny per share from $1.27 per share a year earlier due to lower sales and clearance markdowns. The stock fell $12.25, or 10.5 percent, to $104.09.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 3.98, or 0.52 percent, to 766.06.
Overseas stock markets advanced. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.68 percent, Germany's DAX index advanced 0.54 percent and France's CAC-40 rose 0.66 percent. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed up 2.38 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 4.06 percent.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street extended its rally with modest gains in the major indexes following two days of sharp advances, despite economic readings that painted a mixed picture of the economy.
Though the indexes rose, declining issues narrowly outpaced advancers on the New York Stock Exchange.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the market posted its biggest two-day rally in five years. Hopes have been growing that financial companies may be starting to recover from the credit crisis and that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to calm the markets.
Wall Street's anticipation of a rate cut follows comments from a Fed official Wednesday and comes ahead of a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled for Thursday evening.
Oil prices spiked early Thursday then fell back somewhat after a fire at an Enbridge Energy pipeline carrying crude from Canada to the Midwest.
The oil price recovery gave some strength to energy stocks. Meanwhile, financial companies, which had shown gains Wednesday, retreated as did retailers following a weak showing by Sears Holdings Corp.
Aside from a reading on third-quarter growth, economic news didn't offer investors much reason to cheer.
"The data's weak, and says to us that the Fed needs to stay engaged here," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 22.28, or 0.17 percent, to 13,311.73. In the three sessions since a pullback Monday, the Dow has jumped 568.29, of 4.5 percent.
Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index edged up 0.70, or 0.05 percent, to 1,469.72, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 5.22, or 0.20 percent, to 2,668.13.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 9 to 7 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 3.43 billion shares compared with 4.45 billion traded Wednesday.
For the week, the Dow is up 2.55 percent, while the S&P is up 2.01 percent and the and the Nasdaq is up 2.75 percent. The pace of the gains, however, has been fast enough that a bit of profit-taking wouldn't come as a surprise on Wall Street. The declines that preceded the latest surge had been sharp as well, however. By the end of the day Monday, the market's major indexes had fallen more than 10 percent from levels in mid-October -- meeting the technical definition of a correction.
Bond prices rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note falling to 3.94 percent from 4.05 percent late Wednesday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. The dollar rose against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 39 cents to settle at $91.01 a barrel in choppy trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The rise in oil helped energy companies. Exxon Mobil Corp. rose 67 cents to $88.59, while ConocoPhillips advanced $1.10 to $78.82.
Among financials, Merrill Lynch & Co. fell 38 cents to $57.41, while Bank of America Corp. fell 22 cents to $44.63.
Stocks' fluctuations followed the mixed economic readings.
The Commerce Department reported that economic growth in the third quarter was 4.9 percent, stronger than originally thought, although analysts are anticipating a slowdown in the fourth quarter.
U.S. home prices showed a quarterly decline for the first time in 13 years in the third quarter, according to figures from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which reported a 0.4 percent drop nationwide for the July-September period.
The economic reports came as investors awaited clarity on the Fed's direction on interest rates. Bernanke was slated to speak Thursday evening before the Chamber of Commerce in Charlotte, N.C.
Investors have sent stocks sharply higher in recent days in part because Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn suggested another interest rate cut could be in store. The Fed, which has cut rates at each of its last two meetings, is slated to meet again on Dec. 11.
Wall Street also has been calmed by evidence that companies hurt by subprime problems have found financial backers to help stem the damage.
In the latest such action, E-Trade Financial Corp. said on Thursday that Citadel Investment Group would provide $2.5 billion in cash to shore up the company's balance sheet. E-Trade also said Mitchell H. Caplan had resigned as chief executive.
E-Trade, which holds billions in risky mortgage debt, said it will sell its entire portfolio of asset-backed securities to Citadel for $800 million and book a $2.2 billion charge on the sale. E-Trade fell 46 cents, or 8.7 percent, to $4.82.
In other corporate news, Sears Holdings, parent of its namesake department store chain and Kmart, said profits plunged to a penny per share from $1.27 per share a year earlier due to lower sales and clearance markdowns. The stock fell $12.25, or 10.5 percent, to $104.09.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 3.98, or 0.52 percent, to 766.06.
Overseas stock markets advanced. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.68 percent, Germany's DAX index advanced 0.54 percent and France's CAC-40 rose 0.66 percent. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed up 2.38 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 4.06 percent.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Thursday Is the Test - Forbes
Speculation reached a fever pitch Wednesday, after comments from Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn and a drab economic outlook from the Beige Book seemed to hint at a cut when the Fed next meets December 11.
Financial stocks will bear watching Thursday, after the sector led the market higher. The Dow Jones industrial average raced to a 331-point gain, paced by a 6.5% gain from Citigroup. The index climbed 2.6%, to 13,289, as the major U.S. bank rose $1.97, to $32.29.
Investors brushed aside poor economic reports Wednesday to send stocks higher, and it bears watching Thursday if those reports will come back to have a negative impact.
Bargain hunters contributed to the rally, taking advantage of depressed stock prices. The market's two-day rally could extend as investors look to snap up shares ahead of the prime selling opportunity that would result from another Fed rate cut.
Home builders may struggle Thursday after a strong day Wednesday. The sector rose 5.4%, but the gains came on a day when the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales continued to decline in October thanks to a glut of unsold homes on the market and the difficult financing environment. Among Wednesday's climbers were Pulte Homes, up 45 cents, or 5.0%, to $9.53, and Centex, up $1.16, or 6.4%, to $19.44.
Retailers will also continue to be in focus for the rest of this week. Stocks have made a strong run over the past two days, getting their typical seasonal boost despite fears of weakening consumer spending during holiday shopping.
While shoppers may be spending less, they are still hitting the stores in droves, and retailers are reaping the benefits. Industry giant Wal-Mart gained $1.40, or 3.1%, to $47.23..
Electronics retailer Best Buy gained $1.48, or 3.0%, to $50.58, while rival Circuit City was up 18 cents, or 3.0%, to $6.26.
Online retailers were getting in the act too, as consumers spend more time buying gifts over the Internet. Shares of Amazon.com finished the session at $90.30, up $4.71, or 5.5%.
In addition to rate cut optimism and strength from financials and retail stocks, a pull back in oil prices also contributed to Wednesday's rise.
Crude dropped $3.80 to settle at $90.62 a barrel. A healthier-than-expected U.S. inventory report, speculation about an increase in OPEC production levels, and strength from the dollar all conspired to send prices lower. Do not rule out $100 oil just yet, though. Wednesday's decline may foretell a temporary retreat in crude prices, but if the Fed does indeed cut rates December 11 the move is likely to depress the dollar, which will in turn send crude back to its near triple-digit levels.
Economic data on tap for Thursday includes preliminary third-quarter GDP, the weekly jobless claims report, and new home sales figures for October.
At 7 p.m. Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak at the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, and it is a safe bet investors will hang on his every word, trying to wring out any indication that the Fed will cut rates December 11.
Financial stocks will bear watching Thursday, after the sector led the market higher. The Dow Jones industrial average raced to a 331-point gain, paced by a 6.5% gain from Citigroup. The index climbed 2.6%, to 13,289, as the major U.S. bank rose $1.97, to $32.29.
Investors brushed aside poor economic reports Wednesday to send stocks higher, and it bears watching Thursday if those reports will come back to have a negative impact.
Bargain hunters contributed to the rally, taking advantage of depressed stock prices. The market's two-day rally could extend as investors look to snap up shares ahead of the prime selling opportunity that would result from another Fed rate cut.
Home builders may struggle Thursday after a strong day Wednesday. The sector rose 5.4%, but the gains came on a day when the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales continued to decline in October thanks to a glut of unsold homes on the market and the difficult financing environment. Among Wednesday's climbers were Pulte Homes, up 45 cents, or 5.0%, to $9.53, and Centex, up $1.16, or 6.4%, to $19.44.
Retailers will also continue to be in focus for the rest of this week. Stocks have made a strong run over the past two days, getting their typical seasonal boost despite fears of weakening consumer spending during holiday shopping.
While shoppers may be spending less, they are still hitting the stores in droves, and retailers are reaping the benefits. Industry giant Wal-Mart gained $1.40, or 3.1%, to $47.23..
Electronics retailer Best Buy gained $1.48, or 3.0%, to $50.58, while rival Circuit City was up 18 cents, or 3.0%, to $6.26.
Online retailers were getting in the act too, as consumers spend more time buying gifts over the Internet. Shares of Amazon.com finished the session at $90.30, up $4.71, or 5.5%.
In addition to rate cut optimism and strength from financials and retail stocks, a pull back in oil prices also contributed to Wednesday's rise.
Crude dropped $3.80 to settle at $90.62 a barrel. A healthier-than-expected U.S. inventory report, speculation about an increase in OPEC production levels, and strength from the dollar all conspired to send prices lower. Do not rule out $100 oil just yet, though. Wednesday's decline may foretell a temporary retreat in crude prices, but if the Fed does indeed cut rates December 11 the move is likely to depress the dollar, which will in turn send crude back to its near triple-digit levels.
Economic data on tap for Thursday includes preliminary third-quarter GDP, the weekly jobless claims report, and new home sales figures for October.
At 7 p.m. Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak at the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, and it is a safe bet investors will hang on his every word, trying to wring out any indication that the Fed will cut rates December 11.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
SGX unveils new board to replace SESDAQ from Dec 17
SINGAPORE : The Singapore Exchange has unveiled its new start-up board aimed at drawing fast-growing companies in the region to list here.
The new board, which replaces Sesdaq next month, is called Catalist and is modelled after London's Alternative Investment Market, otherwise known as AIM.
Catalist is the name for the new sponsor-supervised board that has been much talked about in the last six months. It will go live on Monday, 17 December, replacing the current SESDAQ.
This means that 159 companies currently on the second board will be transferred to Catalist and they will have two years to either move up to the mainboard, or find a sponsor.
SGX chairman J Y Pillay unveiled the board's new name on Monday.
Using Catalist, SGX hopes to entice high growth companies with faster time-to-market of just 6 weeks from notification to trading, compared to 17 weeks on SESDAQ. However, finding a sponsor will be key.
Lawrence Wong, Executive VP and Head of Listings, SGX, said: "One is the full sponsor who effectively act as the gatekeeper for us in admitting the listed company.
"The second type of sponsors who are the continuing sponsors - they are actually an extension of the SGX in terms of supervising, which is why they actually play a very important role.
"They're doing two very important functions that SGX is doing today. We've set the criteria very stringently because we want to make sure that sponsors are of a certainly quality."
Market-watchers say the three local banks will likely be on the first list of approved sponsors to be announced in January.
Robson Lee, lawyer, Shook Lin and Bok, said: "Advisors will be very mindful of their personal responsibility both at the corporate level and at the personal officers level as far as compliance and adherence. They will ensure that corporate governance is adhered, best practices are adopted by issuers."
Gold mining startup CNMC is looking to be one of the first companies on the new board. It says it is already in talks with some international banks to raise funds through Catalist.
Meanwhile, the SGX also announced that there will be no profit or market cap requirements for companies seeking to list on the new board.
Mr Wong said: "End of May, we said there would be a market cap which is S$150 million. But when we went out to the market... the response is that market cap is not an issue because when we're talking about growth, there can be companies that are small, companies that are big."
Mr Lee said: "I think this is a good thing because then it will not preclude new board candidates from growing their market capitalisation because investors are very keen on their stock and (thus push) up their stock price."
However, rules such as interested persons transactions and quarterly reporting remain unchanged.
The CPF Board says members can continue to invest in companies currently on SESDAQ after the transfer to the new board.
But the board will evaluate if the new companies, which have limited track record, are suitable for CPF investment or not. - CNA/ch
The new board, which replaces Sesdaq next month, is called Catalist and is modelled after London's Alternative Investment Market, otherwise known as AIM.
Catalist is the name for the new sponsor-supervised board that has been much talked about in the last six months. It will go live on Monday, 17 December, replacing the current SESDAQ.
This means that 159 companies currently on the second board will be transferred to Catalist and they will have two years to either move up to the mainboard, or find a sponsor.
SGX chairman J Y Pillay unveiled the board's new name on Monday.
Using Catalist, SGX hopes to entice high growth companies with faster time-to-market of just 6 weeks from notification to trading, compared to 17 weeks on SESDAQ. However, finding a sponsor will be key.
Lawrence Wong, Executive VP and Head of Listings, SGX, said: "One is the full sponsor who effectively act as the gatekeeper for us in admitting the listed company.
"The second type of sponsors who are the continuing sponsors - they are actually an extension of the SGX in terms of supervising, which is why they actually play a very important role.
"They're doing two very important functions that SGX is doing today. We've set the criteria very stringently because we want to make sure that sponsors are of a certainly quality."
Market-watchers say the three local banks will likely be on the first list of approved sponsors to be announced in January.
Robson Lee, lawyer, Shook Lin and Bok, said: "Advisors will be very mindful of their personal responsibility both at the corporate level and at the personal officers level as far as compliance and adherence. They will ensure that corporate governance is adhered, best practices are adopted by issuers."
Gold mining startup CNMC is looking to be one of the first companies on the new board. It says it is already in talks with some international banks to raise funds through Catalist.
Meanwhile, the SGX also announced that there will be no profit or market cap requirements for companies seeking to list on the new board.
Mr Wong said: "End of May, we said there would be a market cap which is S$150 million. But when we went out to the market... the response is that market cap is not an issue because when we're talking about growth, there can be companies that are small, companies that are big."
Mr Lee said: "I think this is a good thing because then it will not preclude new board candidates from growing their market capitalisation because investors are very keen on their stock and (thus push) up their stock price."
However, rules such as interested persons transactions and quarterly reporting remain unchanged.
The CPF Board says members can continue to invest in companies currently on SESDAQ after the transfer to the new board.
But the board will evaluate if the new companies, which have limited track record, are suitable for CPF investment or not. - CNA/ch
Sunday, November 25, 2007
首三季净利劲扬近五成 云顶每股派特别股息30仙
吉隆坡讯）云顶（Genting）截至9月底第三季取得2亿7522万令吉净利，虽然下跌49.3％，但为了纪念已故创办人林梧桐，云顶将派发每股30仙特别股息，总额8亿零700万令吉。
在派发特别股息的利好消息激励下，云顶股价昨天应声高涨，一度扬升30仙或4％，至7.80令吉价位，闭市时以7.75令吉挂收，全日涨25仙。
该公司在文告中说，公司第三季营业额劲扬40.31％至22亿2379万令吉，税前盈利则达到3亿6568万令吉，猛挫50.75％。
该公司首九个月取得14亿7442万令吉的净利，增长47.70％；九个月营业额则增长47.89％至42亿1532万令吉。
云顶营业额增长主要是来自于全部业务部的贡献，除了产业部之外。
益资利艾文纽证券指出，云顶派发特别股息的建议令人惊喜，但预料是一次过的举措，因为该集团必须储备更多的资金来扩充国际业务。
云顶目前拥有高达112亿令吉的现金。
达证券指出，云顶第三季的净利大跌，是因为该集团为史丹利休闲的商誉减记损失，作出高达9亿3780万令吉的减记亏损。
撇除这项亏损，以及从脱售丽星油轮14.06％股权取得的4亿9200万令吉一次过获利，云顶的核心净利其实猛涨了152.6％，从前期的2亿8550万令吉激增至7亿2120万令吉。
达证券预期，云顶将从原棕油价格上涨走势，以及赌场度假村业务中受惠，并因此将云顶2007及08财政年的预估净利，分别调高15.2％及31.4％。
在派发特别股息的利好消息激励下，云顶股价昨天应声高涨，一度扬升30仙或4％，至7.80令吉价位，闭市时以7.75令吉挂收，全日涨25仙。
该公司在文告中说，公司第三季营业额劲扬40.31％至22亿2379万令吉，税前盈利则达到3亿6568万令吉，猛挫50.75％。
该公司首九个月取得14亿7442万令吉的净利，增长47.70％；九个月营业额则增长47.89％至42亿1532万令吉。
云顶营业额增长主要是来自于全部业务部的贡献，除了产业部之外。
益资利艾文纽证券指出，云顶派发特别股息的建议令人惊喜，但预料是一次过的举措，因为该集团必须储备更多的资金来扩充国际业务。
云顶目前拥有高达112亿令吉的现金。
达证券指出，云顶第三季的净利大跌，是因为该集团为史丹利休闲的商誉减记损失，作出高达9亿3780万令吉的减记亏损。
撇除这项亏损，以及从脱售丽星油轮14.06％股权取得的4亿9200万令吉一次过获利，云顶的核心净利其实猛涨了152.6％，从前期的2亿8550万令吉激增至7亿2120万令吉。
达证券预期，云顶将从原棕油价格上涨走势，以及赌场度假村业务中受惠，并因此将云顶2007及08财政年的预估净利，分别调高15.2％及31.4％。
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Stocks Fall Amid Economic Jitters
Stocks Fall Ahead of Thanksgiving Amid Worries About the Mortgage Market, Record-High Oil
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street resumed its slide Wednesday as unease about the wilting mortgage market and the broader economy triggered selling ahead of the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season. The Standard & Poor's 500 index and the Dow Jones industrial average each fell by more than 1.5 percent, with the Dow giving up more than 210 points.
The decline in the S&P 500 left the index in negative territory for the year. Many investments such as mutual funds either track or are measured against the S&P.
The worries over the economy sent investors rushing to the safety of government securities. The yield on the Treasury's 10-year note fell below 4 percent for the first time since 2005. The shift into bonds came as the Dow briefly sank below the lows seen in the market's August pullback.
The stock market has been thrashing about recently as investors attempt to gauge how companies will fare amid a further slowdown in the U.S. housing market, a deterioration of credit and record oil prices that crested above $99 a barrel ahead of Wednesday's session. Including Wednesday's slide stocks have fallen in eight of the 11 last sessions -- forgoing the boost seen in recent years during Thanksgiving week, which is capped by the retail bonanza Black Friday.
Economic readings did little to instill confidence among investors. The Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage application volume fell 3.6 percent last week. Meanwhile, the slump in housing suggested banks will continue to face souring mortgage debt.
Government-sponsored lender Freddie Mac, which reported a $2 billion quarterly loss Tuesday and saw shares plummet nearly 29 percent, declined again Wednesday after an analyst downgrade. Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender, also lost further ground.
In other economic news, the Conference Board suggested an economic slowdown could accelerate in the coming months amid rising costs and further weakness in the housing market. Also, the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed its lowest reading in two years -- an unwelcome development for retailers entering what is for many the most important period of the year.
The Commerce Department said jobless claims fell by 11,000 last week, a positive sign for U.S. employment, but the report didn't appear to alleviate anxiety about the potential for weaker consumer spending.
"People are buying and selling off the headlines. The market is so emotional," said Neil Hennessy, president and portfolio manager of Hennessy Funds. "You look at oil approaching $100. People are taking their money and going to the sidelines."
The Dow fell 211.10, or 1.62 percent, to 12,799.04. Several financial companies that are part of the 30-stock index hit fresh 52-week lows Wednesday and the blue chip index is now down 9.85 percent from its mid-October trading high. A 10 percent decline would meet the technical definition of a correction.
Broader stock indicators also fell. The S&P 500 index dropped 22.93, or 1.59 percent, to 1,416.77.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq composite index tumbled 34.66, or 1.33 percent, to 2,562.15.
Investors turned to government bonds amid the uncertainty. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, fell to 4.01 percent from 4.09 percent late Tuesday.
The dollar was mixed against most other major currencies, while gold advanced.
And with oil prices briefly reaching a high of $99.29 a barrel in overnight electronic trading, the question among investors is no longer if oil will reach $100 a barrel, but when -- and how long it will stay there. Crude futures fell 74 cents to settle at $97.29 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after an Energy Department report showed supplies at a closely watched oil terminal in the Midwest rose for the first time in weeks.
"The high price of oil has hurt retail, entertainment, restaurants and clothing," said Don Hodges, chairman of Hodges Capital Management in Dallas. He attributes the market's recent retrenchment to concerns about energy, the consumer, housing and banking among other factors and notes that previous sharp drops in the market have occurred when investors have faced a similar confluence of worries.
An examination of the economic news offered little to boost investor sentiment. The Conference Board said its index of leading indicators fell by 0.5 percent in October to a two-year low, after ticking up by 0.1 percent in September and falling by 0.9 percent in August. And the Reuters/University of Michigan survey's final reading for November found consumer sentiment fell to 76.1 from 80.9 in October.
Wednesday's pullback ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday came after stocks finished with a gain Tuesday following a somewhat baffling pair of reports from the Federal Reserve. The Fed's minutes from its last meeting called its last rate reduction a "close call," but the central bank's economic forecast seemed to imply it is willing to keep lowering rates.
Wall Street is fairly confident the Fed will lower rates at its Dec. 11 meeting to keep the tight credit markets liquid, but it is uncertain about the health of the economy -- particularly given big losses at Freddie Mac and its counterpart Fannie Mae, and possible liquidity problems at Countrywide.
Citigroup Inc., which has already announced write-downs of bad debt tied to mortgages, fell 67 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $30.73. The stock hit a fresh 52-week low of $30.50; its earlier low was $30.80. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell 95 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $40.68. It hit a low of $40.15, falling below an earlier 52-week low of $40.28.
Amid worries that both the private and government lending industries are struggling with the mortgage market implosion, Freddie shares fell 74 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $26. However, Fannie Mae, which had been down in the session, finished up 98 cents, or 3.5 percent, at $29.23; and Countrywide fell 86 cents, or 8.4 percent, to $9.42.
General Motors Corp. rose 10 cents to $26.39 and was the only Dow component to advance after GMAC's Residential Capital LLC said it had hired advisers to explore the possible sale of certain parts of its operations among other options. GM last year sold 51 percent of its GMAC financial services operation to Cerberus Capital Management LP.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 3 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 4.02 billion shares compared with 4.74 billion traded Tuesday.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 9.03, or 1.21 percent, to 740.30.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed down 2.46 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 4.15 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.50 percent, Germany's DAX index declined 1.47 percent, and France's CAC-40 lost 2.28 percent.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street resumed its slide Wednesday as unease about the wilting mortgage market and the broader economy triggered selling ahead of the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season. The Standard & Poor's 500 index and the Dow Jones industrial average each fell by more than 1.5 percent, with the Dow giving up more than 210 points.
The decline in the S&P 500 left the index in negative territory for the year. Many investments such as mutual funds either track or are measured against the S&P.
The worries over the economy sent investors rushing to the safety of government securities. The yield on the Treasury's 10-year note fell below 4 percent for the first time since 2005. The shift into bonds came as the Dow briefly sank below the lows seen in the market's August pullback.
The stock market has been thrashing about recently as investors attempt to gauge how companies will fare amid a further slowdown in the U.S. housing market, a deterioration of credit and record oil prices that crested above $99 a barrel ahead of Wednesday's session. Including Wednesday's slide stocks have fallen in eight of the 11 last sessions -- forgoing the boost seen in recent years during Thanksgiving week, which is capped by the retail bonanza Black Friday.
Economic readings did little to instill confidence among investors. The Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage application volume fell 3.6 percent last week. Meanwhile, the slump in housing suggested banks will continue to face souring mortgage debt.
Government-sponsored lender Freddie Mac, which reported a $2 billion quarterly loss Tuesday and saw shares plummet nearly 29 percent, declined again Wednesday after an analyst downgrade. Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender, also lost further ground.
In other economic news, the Conference Board suggested an economic slowdown could accelerate in the coming months amid rising costs and further weakness in the housing market. Also, the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed its lowest reading in two years -- an unwelcome development for retailers entering what is for many the most important period of the year.
The Commerce Department said jobless claims fell by 11,000 last week, a positive sign for U.S. employment, but the report didn't appear to alleviate anxiety about the potential for weaker consumer spending.
"People are buying and selling off the headlines. The market is so emotional," said Neil Hennessy, president and portfolio manager of Hennessy Funds. "You look at oil approaching $100. People are taking their money and going to the sidelines."
The Dow fell 211.10, or 1.62 percent, to 12,799.04. Several financial companies that are part of the 30-stock index hit fresh 52-week lows Wednesday and the blue chip index is now down 9.85 percent from its mid-October trading high. A 10 percent decline would meet the technical definition of a correction.
Broader stock indicators also fell. The S&P 500 index dropped 22.93, or 1.59 percent, to 1,416.77.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq composite index tumbled 34.66, or 1.33 percent, to 2,562.15.
Investors turned to government bonds amid the uncertainty. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, fell to 4.01 percent from 4.09 percent late Tuesday.
The dollar was mixed against most other major currencies, while gold advanced.
And with oil prices briefly reaching a high of $99.29 a barrel in overnight electronic trading, the question among investors is no longer if oil will reach $100 a barrel, but when -- and how long it will stay there. Crude futures fell 74 cents to settle at $97.29 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after an Energy Department report showed supplies at a closely watched oil terminal in the Midwest rose for the first time in weeks.
"The high price of oil has hurt retail, entertainment, restaurants and clothing," said Don Hodges, chairman of Hodges Capital Management in Dallas. He attributes the market's recent retrenchment to concerns about energy, the consumer, housing and banking among other factors and notes that previous sharp drops in the market have occurred when investors have faced a similar confluence of worries.
An examination of the economic news offered little to boost investor sentiment. The Conference Board said its index of leading indicators fell by 0.5 percent in October to a two-year low, after ticking up by 0.1 percent in September and falling by 0.9 percent in August. And the Reuters/University of Michigan survey's final reading for November found consumer sentiment fell to 76.1 from 80.9 in October.
Wednesday's pullback ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday came after stocks finished with a gain Tuesday following a somewhat baffling pair of reports from the Federal Reserve. The Fed's minutes from its last meeting called its last rate reduction a "close call," but the central bank's economic forecast seemed to imply it is willing to keep lowering rates.
Wall Street is fairly confident the Fed will lower rates at its Dec. 11 meeting to keep the tight credit markets liquid, but it is uncertain about the health of the economy -- particularly given big losses at Freddie Mac and its counterpart Fannie Mae, and possible liquidity problems at Countrywide.
Citigroup Inc., which has already announced write-downs of bad debt tied to mortgages, fell 67 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $30.73. The stock hit a fresh 52-week low of $30.50; its earlier low was $30.80. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell 95 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $40.68. It hit a low of $40.15, falling below an earlier 52-week low of $40.28.
Amid worries that both the private and government lending industries are struggling with the mortgage market implosion, Freddie shares fell 74 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $26. However, Fannie Mae, which had been down in the session, finished up 98 cents, or 3.5 percent, at $29.23; and Countrywide fell 86 cents, or 8.4 percent, to $9.42.
General Motors Corp. rose 10 cents to $26.39 and was the only Dow component to advance after GMAC's Residential Capital LLC said it had hired advisers to explore the possible sale of certain parts of its operations among other options. GM last year sold 51 percent of its GMAC financial services operation to Cerberus Capital Management LP.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 3 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 4.02 billion shares compared with 4.74 billion traded Tuesday.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 9.03, or 1.21 percent, to 740.30.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed down 2.46 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 4.15 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.50 percent, Germany's DAX index declined 1.47 percent, and France's CAC-40 lost 2.28 percent.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
直 通 車 開 行 有 兆 ？- 曾 淵 滄
在 任 何 國 家 ， 只 要 有 外 管 制 ， 就 一 定 有 黑 市 的 地 下 錢 莊 。 通 常 ， 有 外 管 制 的 國 家 ， 其 外 儲 備 一 定 很 少 ， 其 官 定 的 貨 幣 兌 換 價 一 定 遠 高 於 黑 市 的 自 由 市 場 價 ， 因 此 ， 打 擊 地 下 錢 莊 只 是 單 方 向 的 打 擊 非 法 流 出 。 但 是 ， 中 國 的 情 況 很 特 殊 ， 有 非 法 流 出 ， 也 有 非 法 流 入 ， 到 底 ， 流 入 勢 強 還 是 流 出 勢 強 ？ 真 是 不 得 而 知 。 要 知 道 答 案 ， 只 有 放 寬 、 增 加 合 法 兌 換 的 渠 道 。 溫 總 一 方 面 高 調 地 說 要 打 擊 地 下 錢 莊 ， 另 一 方 面 ， 中 國 政 府 卻 面 對 過 多 的 外 儲 備 ， 不 斷 地 被 西 方 國 家 要 求 更 大 幅 度 的 人 民 幣 升 值 。 如 果 地 下 錢 莊 是 流 出 多 過 流 入 ， 這 正 好 可 以 紓 緩 人 民 幣 升 值 的 壓 力 ， 中 央 只 要 隻 眼 閉 隻 眼 開 ， 就 萬 事 大 吉 。 當 然 ， 中 國 政 府 是 一 個 不 大 放 心 自 由 經 濟 的 政 府 ， 處 處 要 加 以 管 理 、 管 理 ， 也 就 事 事 要 干 預 、 干 預 ， 才 會 陷 入 今 日 的 兩 難 問 題 。 地 下 錢 莊 是 可 以 嚴 打 的 ， 但 是 嚴 打 只 能 收 效 一 小 段 時 間 ， 因 為 市 場 的 確 需 要 地 下 錢 莊 ， 過 度 嚴 打 地 下 錢 莊 而 又 沒 有 增 加 合 法 的 兌 換 通 道 ， 只 會 打 擊 中 國 的 經 濟 發 展 。
人 民 幣 流 動 資 金 太 多 非 好 事
記 得 上 個 世 紀 90 年 代 初 ， 那 時 候 中 央 突 然 高 調 打 擊 非 法 的 兌 換 外 券 的 活 動 ， 之 後 不 久 ， 人 民 幣 則 主 動 大 幅 貶 值 ， 最 後 雙 幣 並 軌 ， 取 消 外 券 ， 從 此 ， 人 民 幣 成 了 強 貨 幣 ， 不 必 偷 偷 摸 摸 地 兌 換 。 今 時 今 日 ， 人 民 幣 已 是 超 強 貨 幣 ， 大 量 外 商 在 內 地 投 資 設 廠 ， 他 們 通 過 香 港 出 口 在 香 港 收 美 元 ， 但 他 們 需 要 大 量 人 民 幣 發 工 資 、 付 原 料 費 、 交 電 費 、 買 汽 油 … … 他 們 可 以 通 過 正 常 的 銀 行 款 到 內 地 ， 但 是 ， 地 下 錢 莊 的 服 務 比 銀 行 好 得 多 ， 服 務 費 也 較 低 ， 而 且 ， 正 常 款 也 就 等 於 告 訴 中 國 稅 務 局 ， 他 們 做 多 大 的 生 意 ， 於 是 紛 紛 光 顧 地 下 錢 莊 ， 這 是 非 法 流 入 的 錢 。 有 非 法 流 入 再 有 非 法 流 出 ， 兩 者 也 許 可 以 取 個 平 衡 ， 如 果 只 能 合 法 入 而 限 額 出 ， 中 國 的 人 民 幣 將 會 更 加 過 剩 ， 人 民 幣 流 動 資 金 過 多 決 不 是 好 事 。 我 突 發 異 想 ， 加 緊 打 擊 地 下 錢 莊 是 不 是 港 股 直 通 車 正 式 通 車 的 預 告 ？ 中 銀 香 港 （ 2388 ） 以 每 股 51 元 的 價 格 買 入 4.94% 的 東 亞 （ 023 ） 股 份 ， 不 算 貴 ， PE 不 超 過 23 倍 ， 但 中 銀 自 己 的 PE 僅 14 倍 ， 低 PE 買 高 PE ， 會 分 薄 自 己 的 盈 利 。
人 民 幣 流 動 資 金 太 多 非 好 事
記 得 上 個 世 紀 90 年 代 初 ， 那 時 候 中 央 突 然 高 調 打 擊 非 法 的 兌 換 外 券 的 活 動 ， 之 後 不 久 ， 人 民 幣 則 主 動 大 幅 貶 值 ， 最 後 雙 幣 並 軌 ， 取 消 外 券 ， 從 此 ， 人 民 幣 成 了 強 貨 幣 ， 不 必 偷 偷 摸 摸 地 兌 換 。 今 時 今 日 ， 人 民 幣 已 是 超 強 貨 幣 ， 大 量 外 商 在 內 地 投 資 設 廠 ， 他 們 通 過 香 港 出 口 在 香 港 收 美 元 ， 但 他 們 需 要 大 量 人 民 幣 發 工 資 、 付 原 料 費 、 交 電 費 、 買 汽 油 … … 他 們 可 以 通 過 正 常 的 銀 行 款 到 內 地 ， 但 是 ， 地 下 錢 莊 的 服 務 比 銀 行 好 得 多 ， 服 務 費 也 較 低 ， 而 且 ， 正 常 款 也 就 等 於 告 訴 中 國 稅 務 局 ， 他 們 做 多 大 的 生 意 ， 於 是 紛 紛 光 顧 地 下 錢 莊 ， 這 是 非 法 流 入 的 錢 。 有 非 法 流 入 再 有 非 法 流 出 ， 兩 者 也 許 可 以 取 個 平 衡 ， 如 果 只 能 合 法 入 而 限 額 出 ， 中 國 的 人 民 幣 將 會 更 加 過 剩 ， 人 民 幣 流 動 資 金 過 多 決 不 是 好 事 。 我 突 發 異 想 ， 加 緊 打 擊 地 下 錢 莊 是 不 是 港 股 直 通 車 正 式 通 車 的 預 告 ？ 中 銀 香 港 （ 2388 ） 以 每 股 51 元 的 價 格 買 入 4.94% 的 東 亞 （ 023 ） 股 份 ， 不 算 貴 ， PE 不 超 過 23 倍 ， 但 中 銀 自 己 的 PE 僅 14 倍 ， 低 PE 買 高 PE ， 會 分 薄 自 己 的 盈 利 。
Fed Predicts Slower Growth, More Jobless
Fed Forecasts Slower Growth and More Out of Work Next Year
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The housing collapse and credit crisis will slow economic growth and nudge up unemployment next year, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday in a first-of-its-kind forecast that some economists believe will lead to interest rate cuts early in 2008.
Don't count on a cut in rates at the Fed's December meeting, however, analysts say. The Fed called its rate reduction in late October a "close call" and hinted that its two cuts this year may be sufficient to energize the economy, according to minutes of the Oct. 31 closed-door meeting made public Tuesday.
Policymakers raised concerns at that meeting that inflation might flare up again in the short term, especially in the face of rising energy prices.
But with the Fed's longer-term forecast calling for moderating inflation next year and beyond, economists believe the central bank will have leeway to reduce rates next year.
"The economy is walking on a high wire. Eventually the Fed will have to cut rates again to put a net or a cushion under a falling economy," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. He and other economists predicted more rates cuts early next year to prevent the possibility of the economy falling into a recession.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials gained ground after the Fed issued its forecast and minutes of the October meeting. The Dow Jones industrials were up more than 50 points.
The Federal Reserve, in the first of its quarterly economic reports to the nation, said it believes business growth will slow next year, with the gross domestic product gaining between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent. That would be weaker than how the Fed expects the economy to perform this year and would mark a downgrade to a previous projection released in the summer.
GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is the best barometer of the country's economic fitness.
The downgrade to GDP was due to a number of factors, including "the tightened terms and reduced availability of subprime and jumbo mortgages, weaker-than-expected housing data and rising oil prices," the Fed explained.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The housing collapse and credit crisis will slow economic growth and nudge up unemployment next year, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday in a first-of-its-kind forecast that some economists believe will lead to interest rate cuts early in 2008.
Don't count on a cut in rates at the Fed's December meeting, however, analysts say. The Fed called its rate reduction in late October a "close call" and hinted that its two cuts this year may be sufficient to energize the economy, according to minutes of the Oct. 31 closed-door meeting made public Tuesday.
Policymakers raised concerns at that meeting that inflation might flare up again in the short term, especially in the face of rising energy prices.
But with the Fed's longer-term forecast calling for moderating inflation next year and beyond, economists believe the central bank will have leeway to reduce rates next year.
"The economy is walking on a high wire. Eventually the Fed will have to cut rates again to put a net or a cushion under a falling economy," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. He and other economists predicted more rates cuts early next year to prevent the possibility of the economy falling into a recession.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials gained ground after the Fed issued its forecast and minutes of the October meeting. The Dow Jones industrials were up more than 50 points.
The Federal Reserve, in the first of its quarterly economic reports to the nation, said it believes business growth will slow next year, with the gross domestic product gaining between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent. That would be weaker than how the Fed expects the economy to perform this year and would mark a downgrade to a previous projection released in the summer.
GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is the best barometer of the country's economic fitness.
The downgrade to GDP was due to a number of factors, including "the tightened terms and reduced availability of subprime and jumbo mortgages, weaker-than-expected housing data and rising oil prices," the Fed explained.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Wall Street Heads Toward Higher Open
Stocks Point Toward Higher Open, Rebounding From Steep Loss Ahead of Fed Minutes, Housing Data
NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stocks were poised to rebound Tuesday from steep losses a day earlier as investors, relieved about strong results from Hewlett-Packard Co., awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting and data on housing starts.
Having swooned Monday due to growing anxiety about upcoming losses at the world's major banks, Wall Street seemed to think its sell-off was overdone, considering that third-quarter earnings outside the financial sector have shown solid growth.
After the closing bell Monday, H-P posted a 28 percent rise in profit that easily surpassed analysts' average forecast. The computer and printer maker also lifted its financial outlook and authorized an additional $8 billion for stock buybacks.
The stock market has been mercurial lately, though. What Fed policy makers said behind closed doors on Oct. 31, when they lowered interest rates by a quarter-point, will be released at 2 p.m. EST and read closely for hints about future rate actions.
In the meantime, investors have more corporate and economic news to digest. The Commerce Department is expected to report that housing starts declined again in October to their lowest level in 15 years, while retailers including Target Corp., Barnes and Noble Inc. and BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. are expected to release earnings.
Homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. and lender Freddie Mac are also scheduled to report quarterly results.
Dow Jones industrial futures rose 105, or 0.80 percent, to 13,098. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures gained 9.70, or 0.67 percent, to 1,447.20. Nasdaq 100 index futures added 14.00, or 0.69 percent, to 2,042.00.
Crude oil futures for December delivery rose 97 cents to $95.61 a barrel in pre-opening trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The dollar fell against most other major currencies, but edged up against the yen. Gold rose.
Stock markets overseas bounced higher.
In Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.12 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 1.13 percent. In European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 increased 0.50 percent, Germany's DAX index lifted 0.72 percent, and France's CAC-40 gained 0.36 percent.
NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stocks were poised to rebound Tuesday from steep losses a day earlier as investors, relieved about strong results from Hewlett-Packard Co., awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting and data on housing starts.
Having swooned Monday due to growing anxiety about upcoming losses at the world's major banks, Wall Street seemed to think its sell-off was overdone, considering that third-quarter earnings outside the financial sector have shown solid growth.
After the closing bell Monday, H-P posted a 28 percent rise in profit that easily surpassed analysts' average forecast. The computer and printer maker also lifted its financial outlook and authorized an additional $8 billion for stock buybacks.
The stock market has been mercurial lately, though. What Fed policy makers said behind closed doors on Oct. 31, when they lowered interest rates by a quarter-point, will be released at 2 p.m. EST and read closely for hints about future rate actions.
In the meantime, investors have more corporate and economic news to digest. The Commerce Department is expected to report that housing starts declined again in October to their lowest level in 15 years, while retailers including Target Corp., Barnes and Noble Inc. and BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. are expected to release earnings.
Homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. and lender Freddie Mac are also scheduled to report quarterly results.
Dow Jones industrial futures rose 105, or 0.80 percent, to 13,098. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures gained 9.70, or 0.67 percent, to 1,447.20. Nasdaq 100 index futures added 14.00, or 0.69 percent, to 2,042.00.
Crude oil futures for December delivery rose 97 cents to $95.61 a barrel in pre-opening trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The dollar fell against most other major currencies, but edged up against the yen. Gold rose.
Stock markets overseas bounced higher.
In Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.12 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 1.13 percent. In European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 increased 0.50 percent, Germany's DAX index lifted 0.72 percent, and France's CAC-40 gained 0.36 percent.
何鸿燊预期 恒指年底有望直扑4万点
（香港综合讯）对于市场关注深圳方面稍早前侦破大陆人汇钱去港炒股的地下钱庄一案，并忧虑此等负面消息将会影响港股表现，信德集团主席何鸿燊表示，有关事件对大市不会构成太大影响，更预期恒指年底可直扑4万点。
何鸿燊在10月份的时候，就预期恒指突破3万点后，有望上试4万点。
据香港《大公报》报道，对于港股受隔夜美股急挫、大陆加息阴霾，加上深圳当地银行限制居民提款措施的影响下，上周五港股大跌1136点，何鸿燊前天表示，大陆打击不合法的地下钱庄，或多或少会减少港股的交投，却相信有关影响只属短期性。
他指出，现时港股主要由基金操控，相信短期情况或会改变，由于港股基本因素良好，故看好后市表现，更估计到今年底时，恒指有机会升至接近4万点的水平，即较周五收市报2万7614点，高出1万2386点或44％。
美国经济情况一直为市场焦点，次贷风暴亦困扰整个金融市场，工银亚洲董事兼副总经理黄远辉接受电台访问时表示，该行并无持有次贷抵押相关产品，估计当地银行涉及次贷抵押产品数量也不多，相信直接影响并不会太大。然而，在循环影响下，却可能会录得损失。
他又指出，美国次贷危机将会拖累经济，使增长放缓，纵然减息刺激通胀上扬，却相信美国联储局主席伯南克仍会以经济放缓问题为重点关注对象，故此不排除当局于12月议息期间，将会再一次减息。
<----- shall we follow the Casino King and bet on HSI CW?
何鸿燊在10月份的时候，就预期恒指突破3万点后，有望上试4万点。
据香港《大公报》报道，对于港股受隔夜美股急挫、大陆加息阴霾，加上深圳当地银行限制居民提款措施的影响下，上周五港股大跌1136点，何鸿燊前天表示，大陆打击不合法的地下钱庄，或多或少会减少港股的交投，却相信有关影响只属短期性。
他指出，现时港股主要由基金操控，相信短期情况或会改变，由于港股基本因素良好，故看好后市表现，更估计到今年底时，恒指有机会升至接近4万点的水平，即较周五收市报2万7614点，高出1万2386点或44％。
美国经济情况一直为市场焦点，次贷风暴亦困扰整个金融市场，工银亚洲董事兼副总经理黄远辉接受电台访问时表示，该行并无持有次贷抵押相关产品，估计当地银行涉及次贷抵押产品数量也不多，相信直接影响并不会太大。然而，在循环影响下，却可能会录得损失。
他又指出，美国次贷危机将会拖累经济，使增长放缓，纵然减息刺激通胀上扬，却相信美国联储局主席伯南克仍会以经济放缓问题为重点关注对象，故此不排除当局于12月议息期间，将会再一次减息。
<----- shall we follow the Casino King and bet on HSI CW?
Stocks Fall Amid Banking Concerns
Stocks Fall on Goldman Downgrade of Banks, Including Citigroup; Homebuilders, Airlines Fall
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street resumed its slide Monday as investors absorbed a gloomy outlook for the banking sector as well as bleak news about housing. The major stock market indexes each fell more than 1.5 percent, with the Dow Jones industrial average giving up more than 200 points.
Concerns about the banking sector dominated the session. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s downgrade of large banks, and its estimate that Citigroup Inc. would have to write down $15 billion over the next two quarters due to its exposure to risky debt, unnerved Wall Street.
Other sectors suffered big hits during the session, including homebuilders and airlines.
The latest concerns about the housing sector arose after a downcast survey from the National Association of Homebuilders and a lowered forecast from home-improvement retailer Lowe's Cos. The worry on Wall Street is that the housing market is getting so weak it will crimp consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity and has helped keep the economy afloat. Ahead of the holiday shopping season, any signs that Americans are pulling back could prevent a December rally.
The NAHB's November housing forecast remained unchanged at its lowest-ever level even after the October figure was revised to 19 from 18. Economists polled by Thomson/IFR had expected the index would come in at 18. The survey began in 1985.
"I think that a lot of folks are digesting the news from last week and they're worried about the economy and the ability to grow earnings at the larger companies in America," said Rob Lutts, chief investment officer at Cabot Money Management Inc. in Salem, Mass.
The Dow industrials fell 218.35, or 1.66 percent, to 12,958.44.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street resumed its slide Monday as investors absorbed a gloomy outlook for the banking sector as well as bleak news about housing. The major stock market indexes each fell more than 1.5 percent, with the Dow Jones industrial average giving up more than 200 points.
Concerns about the banking sector dominated the session. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s downgrade of large banks, and its estimate that Citigroup Inc. would have to write down $15 billion over the next two quarters due to its exposure to risky debt, unnerved Wall Street.
Other sectors suffered big hits during the session, including homebuilders and airlines.
The latest concerns about the housing sector arose after a downcast survey from the National Association of Homebuilders and a lowered forecast from home-improvement retailer Lowe's Cos. The worry on Wall Street is that the housing market is getting so weak it will crimp consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity and has helped keep the economy afloat. Ahead of the holiday shopping season, any signs that Americans are pulling back could prevent a December rally.
The NAHB's November housing forecast remained unchanged at its lowest-ever level even after the October figure was revised to 19 from 18. Economists polled by Thomson/IFR had expected the index would come in at 18. The survey began in 1985.
"I think that a lot of folks are digesting the news from last week and they're worried about the economy and the ability to grow earnings at the larger companies in America," said Rob Lutts, chief investment officer at Cabot Money Management Inc. in Salem, Mass.
The Dow industrials fell 218.35, or 1.66 percent, to 12,958.44.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
US Economic Calender (19/11/2007 to 23/11/2007)
On coming Monday, watch for company news out of the financial and housing sectors to move the markets, followed by the 1:00 p.m. ET release of the housing market index. New weakness in this important indicator from home builders would darken expectations for existing home and new home sales data.
汇丰控股预测 中国明年投资海外3600亿
汇丰控股昨日发表的研究报告指出，在不久的将来，中国的机构投资者将向国际证券市场进发，预期包括QDII基金、保险资金、中国投资公司及散户在明年投资于海外市场的资金将达到2460亿美元（3600亿新元）。
报告同时表示，该行本周曾赴北京与合格境内机构投资者（QDII）基金经理进行会晤，其中大部分仍然专注于香港上市的中资股，但对于投资韩国、新加坡、澳洲、台湾及印度的兴趣正在增加。
另外，虽然近期中国政府加强限制境内资金流入香港炒港股，但该研究报告表示，若以投资于单一市场设下上限的指引来分析，在投资于海外市场的2460亿美元当中，可能有1530亿美元资金投资于香港以外，投资于香港的资金则为940亿美元。
报告预期，中国容许个人投资者直接投资港股的计划（港股东直通车）将于明年第二季推出，至2008年底，估计会有270亿美元资金透过该计划投资港股。
报告也引述中国基金经理表示，中国大陆或将对QDII基金于单一市场投资比例作出限制，每一地区上限料为30%。
报告同时表示，该行本周曾赴北京与合格境内机构投资者（QDII）基金经理进行会晤，其中大部分仍然专注于香港上市的中资股，但对于投资韩国、新加坡、澳洲、台湾及印度的兴趣正在增加。
另外，虽然近期中国政府加强限制境内资金流入香港炒港股，但该研究报告表示，若以投资于单一市场设下上限的指引来分析，在投资于海外市场的2460亿美元当中，可能有1530亿美元资金投资于香港以外，投资于香港的资金则为940亿美元。
报告预期，中国容许个人投资者直接投资港股的计划（港股东直通车）将于明年第二季推出，至2008年底，估计会有270亿美元资金透过该计划投资港股。
报告也引述中国基金经理表示，中国大陆或将对QDII基金于单一市场投资比例作出限制，每一地区上限料为30%。
罗奇：亚洲股市半年后才买
综合讯）摩根士丹利亚洲区主席罗奇（Stephen Roach）昨预期，美国经济放缓，影响亚洲经济及股市，区内市场未来6至9个月会继续调整。他不认同在经济全球化现实下亚洲区经济可和美国影响“脱钩”的说法，单计内地就有两成一的商品出口美国。他同时认为，美国次按问题如果爆破，对经济的影响可能较7年前科网股爆破大5倍。
香港文汇报报道，罗奇昨在港出席研讨会时指出，如果认为亚洲可以在全球经济动荡时成为“绿洲”，那是非常可笑的。因为亚洲是高度依赖出口为导向的经济区域，大约有60%的产品需要出口到世界其他地区，最终目的地往往是美国、欧洲和日本。相反，亚洲的成功，恰恰是全球化对经济发展作用的最佳示范，而全球化就是整合。他指出，全球化与“脱钩”理论两者不可兼信。美国经济放缓，将无可避免影响到区内的经济及股市。
他表示，目前亚洲股市的估值偏高，对投资者来说并不吸引，相信现阶段会继续调整，直至在未来6至9个月后才变得吸引。
对美元贬值，罗其预测这个状况将会持续，但对亚洲的影响，不会比美国消费者信心危机来得大。
香港文汇报报道，罗奇昨在港出席研讨会时指出，如果认为亚洲可以在全球经济动荡时成为“绿洲”，那是非常可笑的。因为亚洲是高度依赖出口为导向的经济区域，大约有60%的产品需要出口到世界其他地区，最终目的地往往是美国、欧洲和日本。相反，亚洲的成功，恰恰是全球化对经济发展作用的最佳示范，而全球化就是整合。他指出，全球化与“脱钩”理论两者不可兼信。美国经济放缓，将无可避免影响到区内的经济及股市。
他表示，目前亚洲股市的估值偏高，对投资者来说并不吸引，相信现阶段会继续调整，直至在未来6至9个月后才变得吸引。
对美元贬值，罗其预测这个状况将会持续，但对亚洲的影响，不会比美国消费者信心危机来得大。
Friday, November 16, 2007
Stocks Fall Amid Concern About Consumers
Stocks Slide on Anxiety About Health of Consumer Spending Ahead of Holidays, State of Banks
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street skidded lower Thursday as investors grappled with concerns about the strength of consumer spending and the overall economy after downbeat comments from J.C. Penney Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.
Investors soured on retailers and banks, while falling oil prices hurt shares of energy companies. Wall Street is concerned about rising gas prices. Although oil has come off the highs seen last week, prices remain elevated and could crimp consumer spending as the all-important holiday shopping season approaches.
"The J.C. Penney comments in terms of their guidance have sort of put another nail in retail. The assumption is the consumer has given up," said Charlie Smith, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh. "Three-dollar to $3.20 a gallon gas and house prices falling at 5 percent a year is really a double-whammy the consumer can't overcome."
Wells Fargo president and chief executive John Stumpf said the housing market is seeing its steepest decline since the Great Depression. The bank has boosted its loss provisions in recent quarters to cover increasing defaults on mortgages and home-equity products. Still, the company has been able to avoid big writedowns that other banks have faced because it has little exposure to some complex financial instruments such as mortgage-backed securities that have recently soured.
Investors also reacted to a Barron's report late Wednesday that a General Electric Asset Management bond fund has suffered losses in mortgage-backed securities. The General Electric Co. unit is offering investors the option to redeem their holdings in the short-term institutional bond fund at 96 cents on the dollar. The losses in the bond fund raised concerns that the squeeze on credit markets could spread and hurt small investors.
Barclays Group said its Barclays Capital investment unit became the latest financial institution to book a writedown on losses stemming from turbulent credit markets. The business took a $2.7 billion charge in the third quarter but the also said Thursday its profit beat last year's strong performance.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 120.96, or 0.91 percent, to 13,110.05.
Broader stock indicators also declined. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 19.43, or 1.32 percent, to 1,451.15. The Nasdaq composite index fell 25.81, or 0.98 percent, to 2,618.51.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street skidded lower Thursday as investors grappled with concerns about the strength of consumer spending and the overall economy after downbeat comments from J.C. Penney Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.
Investors soured on retailers and banks, while falling oil prices hurt shares of energy companies. Wall Street is concerned about rising gas prices. Although oil has come off the highs seen last week, prices remain elevated and could crimp consumer spending as the all-important holiday shopping season approaches.
"The J.C. Penney comments in terms of their guidance have sort of put another nail in retail. The assumption is the consumer has given up," said Charlie Smith, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh. "Three-dollar to $3.20 a gallon gas and house prices falling at 5 percent a year is really a double-whammy the consumer can't overcome."
Wells Fargo president and chief executive John Stumpf said the housing market is seeing its steepest decline since the Great Depression. The bank has boosted its loss provisions in recent quarters to cover increasing defaults on mortgages and home-equity products. Still, the company has been able to avoid big writedowns that other banks have faced because it has little exposure to some complex financial instruments such as mortgage-backed securities that have recently soured.
Investors also reacted to a Barron's report late Wednesday that a General Electric Asset Management bond fund has suffered losses in mortgage-backed securities. The General Electric Co. unit is offering investors the option to redeem their holdings in the short-term institutional bond fund at 96 cents on the dollar. The losses in the bond fund raised concerns that the squeeze on credit markets could spread and hurt small investors.
Barclays Group said its Barclays Capital investment unit became the latest financial institution to book a writedown on losses stemming from turbulent credit markets. The business took a $2.7 billion charge in the third quarter but the also said Thursday its profit beat last year's strong performance.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 120.96, or 0.91 percent, to 13,110.05.
Broader stock indicators also declined. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 19.43, or 1.32 percent, to 1,451.15. The Nasdaq composite index fell 25.81, or 0.98 percent, to 2,618.51.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Some interesting dialogue to share
These are some interesting dialogue that I had with a nice gentleman from the forum.
I won't reveal his identity and his part of the dialogue as this is private and confidential.
However, I will just list some replies that I had made to him :) to show how much fun I had..
漫漫长夜, 是红是绿，言之过早。
小女不才， 定力有限，无心睡眠，
唯有苦等， 守株待兔，方能安枕。
大哥喝了竹叶青， 喜见股市变牛精，
小妹虽见股市劲， 欲不免胆战心惊，
因妹手头好多股， 股市闭还卖不出。
今晚阿斗若不起， 妹只好悬梁自尽。
其实美股是绿红， 狮股未必有痛痒，
妹曾说悬梁自尽， 实只是胡言乱语，
妹虽非家财万贯， 小风险还可承受，
哥股精兼会看相， 妹欣慰今遇高人。
今天早起探阿斗，惊见阿斗满身红，
以为喝了竹叶青，昨晚早早就入寝，
南坷一梦才方醒，妹已吓得脸青青，
现只望狮股争气，别让阿斗看不起。
大哥所言不无道理， 现今股市颓废低迷，
妹子唯有苦等良机， 望开花结果在年底。
虽妹不乏裙下之众， 贴士好坏却难分辨，
老美阿甘毫不争气， 贴士再准也未必行。
妹子目前是闺女， 选择夫君没经验，
布斯明年将下台， 小妹看好希拉莉，
就算美佬欠债多， 她也必逢凶化吉，
妹子无福金融业， 目前任职贸易圈，
大哥毋须来担心， 小妹只是小文员。
小妹出身小康家，才气出众不敢当，
只是从小爱书香，抬举小妹我怕怕。
您说妹子我自谦，我说大哥才厉害，
大哥虽然仍无业，股经精通顶瓜瓜。
您说妹子有福气，大哥怎样看出来？
Hope he does not mind :)
I won't reveal his identity and his part of the dialogue as this is private and confidential.
However, I will just list some replies that I had made to him :) to show how much fun I had..
漫漫长夜, 是红是绿，言之过早。
小女不才， 定力有限，无心睡眠，
唯有苦等， 守株待兔，方能安枕。
大哥喝了竹叶青， 喜见股市变牛精，
小妹虽见股市劲， 欲不免胆战心惊，
因妹手头好多股， 股市闭还卖不出。
今晚阿斗若不起， 妹只好悬梁自尽。
其实美股是绿红， 狮股未必有痛痒，
妹曾说悬梁自尽， 实只是胡言乱语，
妹虽非家财万贯， 小风险还可承受，
哥股精兼会看相， 妹欣慰今遇高人。
今天早起探阿斗，惊见阿斗满身红，
以为喝了竹叶青，昨晚早早就入寝，
南坷一梦才方醒，妹已吓得脸青青，
现只望狮股争气，别让阿斗看不起。
大哥所言不无道理， 现今股市颓废低迷，
妹子唯有苦等良机， 望开花结果在年底。
虽妹不乏裙下之众， 贴士好坏却难分辨，
老美阿甘毫不争气， 贴士再准也未必行。
妹子目前是闺女， 选择夫君没经验，
布斯明年将下台， 小妹看好希拉莉，
就算美佬欠债多， 她也必逢凶化吉，
妹子无福金融业， 目前任职贸易圈，
大哥毋须来担心， 小妹只是小文员。
小妹出身小康家，才气出众不敢当，
只是从小爱书香，抬举小妹我怕怕。
您说妹子我自谦，我说大哥才厉害，
大哥虽然仍无业，股经精通顶瓜瓜。
您说妹子有福气，大哥怎样看出来？
Hope he does not mind :)
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
短線策略逢低做好 - John Mullen
港股昨日又再現V 形型反彈，計算自今年八月十七日在內是第二次，恒指昨先跌後回升，高低波幅過千點，現貨收市升137 點，收報27,803 點，大市成交1,547 億元。期指升160 點，收報27,787 點，成交逾8.1 萬張。
昨日期指無法如預期反彈上28,300 水平，最高位僅27,979 。細想為何昨日早市港股由即市高位計再大跌近千點，筆者相信是大戶部署下午反彈攻勢前的最後一跌，大戶想利用市場普遍認定的三個支持位，即是27,000 的心理關口、由19,387 升上至31,958 後回吐0.382 水平而計算出的27,156 ，及周一低位的27,350 均是良好防線區的心態，但在一舉沽破三大支持後，造成一個市場大跌市氣氛，這樣他們於午市買貨時會更為容易。
究竟大戶是平掉淡倉還是再建立好倉，筆者認為兩者兼有，但以平淡倉盤量較多，因為目前環球股市氣氛仍未有見底回升訊號，因此不用急於建好倉準備反彈，所以未來指數在28,300 至28,500 以及28,500 至29,000 都會遇到不少阻力。
其實短期大市走勢主要由兩大因素影響，第一是貨幣供應，第二是心理因素，筆者認為只有在兩者皆為負面時才會出現較大型的調整，現時港股貨幣供應仍充裕，相信再大幅調整的機會不高，建議於27,500 樓上逢低小注建立好倉，以28,500 為目標。
昨日期指無法如預期反彈上28,300 水平，最高位僅27,979 。細想為何昨日早市港股由即市高位計再大跌近千點，筆者相信是大戶部署下午反彈攻勢前的最後一跌，大戶想利用市場普遍認定的三個支持位，即是27,000 的心理關口、由19,387 升上至31,958 後回吐0.382 水平而計算出的27,156 ，及周一低位的27,350 均是良好防線區的心態，但在一舉沽破三大支持後，造成一個市場大跌市氣氛，這樣他們於午市買貨時會更為容易。
究竟大戶是平掉淡倉還是再建立好倉，筆者認為兩者兼有，但以平淡倉盤量較多，因為目前環球股市氣氛仍未有見底回升訊號，因此不用急於建好倉準備反彈，所以未來指數在28,300 至28,500 以及28,500 至29,000 都會遇到不少阻力。
其實短期大市走勢主要由兩大因素影響，第一是貨幣供應，第二是心理因素，筆者認為只有在兩者皆為負面時才會出現較大型的調整，現時港股貨幣供應仍充裕，相信再大幅調整的機會不高，建議於27,500 樓上逢低小注建立好倉，以28,500 為目標。
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Futures point higher on profit views
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock futures jumped on Tuesday, pointing to a rebound after four straight sessions of losses, as higher-than-expected profit at Wal-Mart Stores Inc lifted sentiment.
Oil prices below $94 a barrel added to the positive tone.
Shares of Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, rose 3.3 percent to $44.77 before the opening bell after it said the 8 percent rise in third-quarter earnings came on stronger sales abroad, tighter cost controls and efforts to lure customers into stores earlier than ever for holiday shopping.
"I kind of think the market is going to encounter a technical rebound today... We had solid corporate news already," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.
However, home improvement retailer Home Depot Inc reported results that missed expectations and forecast a steeper fall on full-year earnings.
S&P 500 futures rose 13.80 points and were well above fair value, a formula to evaluate pricing taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.
Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 98 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 21.50 points.
U.S. stocks fell for a fourth session on Monday, led by a widening sell-off in technology stocks late in the day on worries about business spending, while a drop in oil prices hit energy producers' shares.
News Corp Chairman Rupert Murdoch said the company had made a strong start to this quarter, with the global credit-market squeeze so far not having much affect on forward advertising.
On the economic agenda, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to issue its Pending Home Sales Index for September at 3 p.m.
Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a 2.8 percent drop versus a 6.5 percent fall in the August release.
On Monday, the Dow fell 0.4 percent to 12,987.55 points -- its first finish below 13,000 since early August.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 14.52 points, or 1.00 percent, to finish at 1,439.18. Monday's loss marked the S&P's longest losing streak in nine months. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 43.81 points, or 1.67 percent, to 2,584.13.
<------- Guess most people can sleep better tonight, finally..
Oil prices below $94 a barrel added to the positive tone.
Shares of Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, rose 3.3 percent to $44.77 before the opening bell after it said the 8 percent rise in third-quarter earnings came on stronger sales abroad, tighter cost controls and efforts to lure customers into stores earlier than ever for holiday shopping.
"I kind of think the market is going to encounter a technical rebound today... We had solid corporate news already," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.
However, home improvement retailer Home Depot Inc reported results that missed expectations and forecast a steeper fall on full-year earnings.
S&P 500 futures rose 13.80 points and were well above fair value, a formula to evaluate pricing taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.
Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 98 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 21.50 points.
U.S. stocks fell for a fourth session on Monday, led by a widening sell-off in technology stocks late in the day on worries about business spending, while a drop in oil prices hit energy producers' shares.
News Corp Chairman Rupert Murdoch said the company had made a strong start to this quarter, with the global credit-market squeeze so far not having much affect on forward advertising.
On the economic agenda, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to issue its Pending Home Sales Index for September at 3 p.m.
Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a 2.8 percent drop versus a 6.5 percent fall in the August release.
On Monday, the Dow fell 0.4 percent to 12,987.55 points -- its first finish below 13,000 since early August.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 14.52 points, or 1.00 percent, to finish at 1,439.18. Monday's loss marked the S&P's longest losing streak in nine months. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 43.81 points, or 1.67 percent, to 2,584.13.
<------- Guess most people can sleep better tonight, finally..
拋售高潮未出現 - 寶維
期指昨出現裂口低開，隨即下破28000，觸發新一輪沽盤，短線走勢一浪低於一浪，並跌近預期目標區，以27627收市，急挫1244點，低水38 點。美國次按危機，再引發全球股市調整，亞洲區股市無一倖免，金融股短期成弱勢股，滙控（005）昨日低見136元，連續3日裂口下跌，成交同時上升。期指跌浪延伸，近期累積跌幅接近今次升浪的15%，惟近幾日跌市成交金額反而下跌，似乎市場未達拋售高潮，反彈後應再尋底。
短線隨機指數向淡，14RSI跌至43水平，波浪形態偏弱，跌破上周低位區28300，推動浪力度轉強，淡友可能順勢追擊，向下考驗27200。日線圖出現第4個裂口，昨日低位剛跌近 50日線，雖有短線技術反彈，但裂口區壓力重重，料維持在低位區鞏固。H股期指加速下滑，裂口低開後即跌破17000，反彈力度有限，沽盤大增，以 16655低收，急瀉1018點，低水1點，成交合約升至6萬張。內地股市全面下滑，人行調升存款準備金後，市場預期有進一步宏調的可能，六行三保齊齊下跌，資源股及中資地產股偏弱，令國企股全線報跌。
H股期指仍未見底
H股期指已跌近預期目標16527，昨日低見16576，即低一級4浪支持，由於裂口向下，17200水平會成為本周初的反彈阻力，後市仍視乎內地股市走向。H股期指現水平已跌近大升浪調整的0.382倍，惟成交增加，跌浪會作延伸。
短線隨機指數向淡，14RSI跌至43水平，波浪形態偏弱，跌破上周低位區28300，推動浪力度轉強，淡友可能順勢追擊，向下考驗27200。日線圖出現第4個裂口，昨日低位剛跌近 50日線，雖有短線技術反彈，但裂口區壓力重重，料維持在低位區鞏固。H股期指加速下滑，裂口低開後即跌破17000，反彈力度有限，沽盤大增，以 16655低收，急瀉1018點，低水1點，成交合約升至6萬張。內地股市全面下滑，人行調升存款準備金後，市場預期有進一步宏調的可能，六行三保齊齊下跌，資源股及中資地產股偏弱，令國企股全線報跌。
H股期指仍未見底
H股期指已跌近預期目標16527，昨日低見16576，即低一級4浪支持，由於裂口向下，17200水平會成為本周初的反彈阻力，後市仍視乎內地股市走向。H股期指現水平已跌近大升浪調整的0.382倍，惟成交增加，跌浪會作延伸。
後市悲觀港股未跌完 - 沈振盈
港股再跌1117點，險守50日平均線，形態上已形成了「頭肩頂」，頸線28400點已破，就算出現後抽，也仍有再試低位之可能。恒指雖已從歷史高位31958回落逾4000點，但由於頂位的基數較以往大，應該尚未見底。今次的跌浪源於外圍市況，美元疲弱，次按問題，觸發美股下調。中國亦隨着國家政策要冷卻過熱的經濟，開始進一步收緊銀根，港股亦因而受影響。10月份的港股被資金胡亂推高，令股價升至不合理水平，溫總煞停「直通車」，正是撥亂反正的良策。筆者對今次調整浪的看法比較悲觀，皆因美元的疲弱已令日圓升破重要阻力位113，足夠迫使「套息交易」盤要拆倉，對股市、金市及油市皆出現沽壓。而「次按問題」所衍生出來的「套現需求」其實仍未解決，短期內會對全球投資市場構成壓力。
沽金股油股
資源商品股昨日出現較大的跌幅，早前就算金價升、油價升，相關資源股已明顯出現沽壓。上周五日圓上升，觸發資金開始在金市及油市套現，資源商品股份帶來強大沽壓。至此，大家應該明白為何筆者早在周前已指出，中石油（857）、神華（1088）等資源股為短期的「高危」股份。其實資源商品價格不能無止境地升，資源商品價格越升，經濟前景就越淡。所以，筆者在去年不斷在低位叫大家買紫金（2899），到了近期高位已不再推介，沽了就算，不要再追。前周建議大家開put沽中石油，至今已穩坐釣魚船，今次中石油A股上市，又一次是國壽（2628）的翻版，股神畢菲特應可爭回一口氣。上帝要你滅亡，必先令你瘋狂；股市也是一樣，市場情緒必定要令大部份人對大市建立了絕對的信心，將一切危機拋諸腦後，才會出現大幅的調整。
作者沈振盈為證監會持牌人士
沽金股油股
資源商品股昨日出現較大的跌幅，早前就算金價升、油價升，相關資源股已明顯出現沽壓。上周五日圓上升，觸發資金開始在金市及油市套現，資源商品股份帶來強大沽壓。至此，大家應該明白為何筆者早在周前已指出，中石油（857）、神華（1088）等資源股為短期的「高危」股份。其實資源商品價格不能無止境地升，資源商品價格越升，經濟前景就越淡。所以，筆者在去年不斷在低位叫大家買紫金（2899），到了近期高位已不再推介，沽了就算，不要再追。前周建議大家開put沽中石油，至今已穩坐釣魚船，今次中石油A股上市，又一次是國壽（2628）的翻版，股神畢菲特應可爭回一口氣。上帝要你滅亡，必先令你瘋狂；股市也是一樣，市場情緒必定要令大部份人對大市建立了絕對的信心，將一切危機拋諸腦後，才會出現大幅的調整。
作者沈振盈為證監會持牌人士
Stocks Finish Lower Amid Credit Anxiety
Wall Street ratcheted its way through a fractious session Monday before finally closing lower on expectations of further fallout from the ongoing credit crisis. The Dow Jones industrials, up more than 100 points during the day, ended below 13,000 for the first time since August.
Stocks lost ground for the fourth straight session. Analysts said investors had few reasons to sustain a rally, even with many stocks at enticingly low prices after recent routs. The Nasdaq composite index was the biggest decliner among the major indexes as investors sold technology stocks.
News stories kept the subprime contagion in focus. Late Friday, E-Trade Financial Corp. said the value of its mortgage-backed securities has fallen significantly and that it will need to take bigger-than-expected write-downs in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, troubled home lender Countrywide Financial Corp. said in a U.S. regulatory filing it could be "severely" limited if its credit rating drops into junk status. And Britain's HSBC Holdings PLC was seen as the next major financial institution to write down losses from exposure to the debt markets, according to a report from The Times of London. The bank will announce a $1 billion charge to its portfolio of high-risk subprime mortgages when it reports third-quarter results from its U.S. division, according to the report.
Investors were uncertain in the wake of heavy selling last week. "I don't think anyone quite knows what to make of today's market," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. "It is a decent day, given all of the mess from last week. But this is very, very short-term. All we are doing is reversing some of the action from last week."
Blue chips held on to some of their gains, but selling was especially strong in tech stocks as more investors succumbed to the view that the sector is not strong enough to provide the economy with a cushion against the weakness in housing. Apple Inc. fell more than 7 percent after analysts described the weekend European launch of the iPod as disappointing.
According to preliminary calculations, the Dow fell 55.19, or 0.42 percent, to 12,987.55, after falling 4.06 percent last week.
The last time the Dow traded below 13,000 was on Aug. 17, when it index hit a low of 12,847.24, and the last time it closed below 13,000 was on Aug. 16, when it ended at 12,845.78.
The Dow has fallen 1,210.55, or 8.53 percent, from the all-time trading high of 14,198.10 that it reached Oct. 11. Its record high close was 14,164.53, set Oct. 9.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index on Monday fell 14.52, or 1 percent, to 1,439.18, while the Nasdaq composite index dropped 43.81, or 1.67 percent, to 2,584.13.
Falling issues outnumbered advancing shares by about 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.71 billion shares compared with 1.62 billion shares traded Friday.
Trading in many corners of the market was light because of Veterans Day, with the government bond markets closed. This could account for some volatility as institutional traders sought positions ahead of economic reports, including readings on inflation, later in the week.
The dollar rebounded against other major currencies, bolstered by a sharp decline in the price of gold. Gold futures briefly fell under $800 an ounce before recovering some strength to close down $27 at $807.70 an ounce.
Light, sweet crude fell $1.70 to $94.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The drop came on reports that OPEC would discuss increasing its output at an upcoming meeting in a bid to cool record crude prices.
"The problem is just the mood of the market," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners, said of Wall Street. "There is a tense feeling that there will be still more problems with the subprime situation and a fear that things are going to get worse rather than better."
"The feeling is so bad that we did not even get much help from a drop in commodities prices," he said. "Nothing will change until we get a positive catalyst and I don't see one."
Stocks lost ground for the fourth straight session. Analysts said investors had few reasons to sustain a rally, even with many stocks at enticingly low prices after recent routs. The Nasdaq composite index was the biggest decliner among the major indexes as investors sold technology stocks.
News stories kept the subprime contagion in focus. Late Friday, E-Trade Financial Corp. said the value of its mortgage-backed securities has fallen significantly and that it will need to take bigger-than-expected write-downs in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, troubled home lender Countrywide Financial Corp. said in a U.S. regulatory filing it could be "severely" limited if its credit rating drops into junk status. And Britain's HSBC Holdings PLC was seen as the next major financial institution to write down losses from exposure to the debt markets, according to a report from The Times of London. The bank will announce a $1 billion charge to its portfolio of high-risk subprime mortgages when it reports third-quarter results from its U.S. division, according to the report.
Investors were uncertain in the wake of heavy selling last week. "I don't think anyone quite knows what to make of today's market," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. "It is a decent day, given all of the mess from last week. But this is very, very short-term. All we are doing is reversing some of the action from last week."
Blue chips held on to some of their gains, but selling was especially strong in tech stocks as more investors succumbed to the view that the sector is not strong enough to provide the economy with a cushion against the weakness in housing. Apple Inc. fell more than 7 percent after analysts described the weekend European launch of the iPod as disappointing.
According to preliminary calculations, the Dow fell 55.19, or 0.42 percent, to 12,987.55, after falling 4.06 percent last week.
The last time the Dow traded below 13,000 was on Aug. 17, when it index hit a low of 12,847.24, and the last time it closed below 13,000 was on Aug. 16, when it ended at 12,845.78.
The Dow has fallen 1,210.55, or 8.53 percent, from the all-time trading high of 14,198.10 that it reached Oct. 11. Its record high close was 14,164.53, set Oct. 9.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index on Monday fell 14.52, or 1 percent, to 1,439.18, while the Nasdaq composite index dropped 43.81, or 1.67 percent, to 2,584.13.
Falling issues outnumbered advancing shares by about 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.71 billion shares compared with 1.62 billion shares traded Friday.
Trading in many corners of the market was light because of Veterans Day, with the government bond markets closed. This could account for some volatility as institutional traders sought positions ahead of economic reports, including readings on inflation, later in the week.
The dollar rebounded against other major currencies, bolstered by a sharp decline in the price of gold. Gold futures briefly fell under $800 an ounce before recovering some strength to close down $27 at $807.70 an ounce.
Light, sweet crude fell $1.70 to $94.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The drop came on reports that OPEC would discuss increasing its output at an upcoming meeting in a bid to cool record crude prices.
"The problem is just the mood of the market," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners, said of Wall Street. "There is a tense feeling that there will be still more problems with the subprime situation and a fear that things are going to get worse rather than better."
"The feeling is so bad that we did not even get much help from a drop in commodities prices," he said. "Nothing will change until we get a positive catalyst and I don't see one."
Monday, November 12, 2007
Singapore's Straits Times Index Falls the Most in Three Weeks
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's Straits Times Index fell the most in three weeks after Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said tighter credit markets and U.S. home-loan defaults may hurt earnings.
DBS Group Holdings Ltd., United Overseas Bank Ltd. and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. led declines on concern they will book further losses on securities related to U.S. mortgage investments. Singapore Telecommunications Ltd., the city's biggest company by market value, declined as investors opted for safer bets than equities.
"Investors are increasingly risk-averse,'' said Nicole Sze, Singapore-based investment analyst at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which manages $350 billion in assets worldwide. ``Nobody knows the full extent of the losses and you wonder whether the local banks have made adequate provisions.''
The Straits Times lost 88.55, or 2.5 percent, to 3,511.12 at the close in Singapore, its biggest decline since Oct. 22. About nine stocks fell for each that advanced on the benchmark. November futures slid 2.3 percent.
DBS, Southeast Asia's largest lender, fell 70 cents, or 3.4 percent, to S$19.80. United Overseas Bank, Singapore's second- biggest, dropped 50 cents, or 2.5 percent, to S$19.60.
Oversea-Chinese, which said last week it took a S$221 million ($153 million) charge on its asset-backed securities, declined 15 cents, or 1.7 percent, to S$8.50.
Bank of America and JPMorgan, the No. 2 and No. 3 lenders in the U.S., said Nov. 9 that their fourth-quarter results may be hurt as mortgage losses prompt investors to shun credit markets. Wachovia Corp., the fourth-biggest, said it lost as much as $1.7 billion this quarter on mortgage-related investments.
Singapore Telecom, Southeast Asia's largest phone company, slid 2 cents, or 0.5 percent, to S$3.84. CapitaLand Ltd., Singapore's biggest property developer, declined 35 cents, or 4.7 percent, to S$7.05. Keppel Corp., the world's No. 1 oil-rig builder, slipped 50 cents, or 3.7 percent, to S$13.20.
The following shares also fell in Singapore. Stock symbols are in brackets after company names.
Biosensors International Group Ltd. (BIG SP), a maker of medical stents and catheters, slid 5 cents, or 5.6 percent, to 84.5 cents. The company said its second-quarter loss widened to $11 million from $9.2 million in the year-earlier period because of higher costs and taxes.
Rowsley Ltd. (ROWS SP), a gaming and lottery operator, declined 6 Singapore cents, or 26 percent, to 17 cents. The company is dropping a plan to buy Perfect Field Investment Inc. in a so-called reverse takeover after the Chinese maker of solar-energy products failed to meet production-capacity targets, according to its filing to the stock exchange.
Singapore Exchange Ltd. (SGX SP), which operates the city's stock and derivatives markets, declined 70 cents, or 4.9 percent, to S$13.60. BNP Paribas gave the stock a ``reduce'' rating in new coverage, citing slowing earnings growth.
WBL Corp. (WBL SP), a maker of telecommunications equipment, fell 10 cents, or 2.5 percent, to S$3.90. The company said it will report a full-year loss because of charges stemming from its Thailand unit and lower earnings at its flexible printed circuit business.
DBS Group Holdings Ltd., United Overseas Bank Ltd. and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. led declines on concern they will book further losses on securities related to U.S. mortgage investments. Singapore Telecommunications Ltd., the city's biggest company by market value, declined as investors opted for safer bets than equities.
"Investors are increasingly risk-averse,'' said Nicole Sze, Singapore-based investment analyst at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which manages $350 billion in assets worldwide. ``Nobody knows the full extent of the losses and you wonder whether the local banks have made adequate provisions.''
The Straits Times lost 88.55, or 2.5 percent, to 3,511.12 at the close in Singapore, its biggest decline since Oct. 22. About nine stocks fell for each that advanced on the benchmark. November futures slid 2.3 percent.
DBS, Southeast Asia's largest lender, fell 70 cents, or 3.4 percent, to S$19.80. United Overseas Bank, Singapore's second- biggest, dropped 50 cents, or 2.5 percent, to S$19.60.
Oversea-Chinese, which said last week it took a S$221 million ($153 million) charge on its asset-backed securities, declined 15 cents, or 1.7 percent, to S$8.50.
Bank of America and JPMorgan, the No. 2 and No. 3 lenders in the U.S., said Nov. 9 that their fourth-quarter results may be hurt as mortgage losses prompt investors to shun credit markets. Wachovia Corp., the fourth-biggest, said it lost as much as $1.7 billion this quarter on mortgage-related investments.
Singapore Telecom, Southeast Asia's largest phone company, slid 2 cents, or 0.5 percent, to S$3.84. CapitaLand Ltd., Singapore's biggest property developer, declined 35 cents, or 4.7 percent, to S$7.05. Keppel Corp., the world's No. 1 oil-rig builder, slipped 50 cents, or 3.7 percent, to S$13.20.
The following shares also fell in Singapore. Stock symbols are in brackets after company names.
Biosensors International Group Ltd. (BIG SP), a maker of medical stents and catheters, slid 5 cents, or 5.6 percent, to 84.5 cents. The company said its second-quarter loss widened to $11 million from $9.2 million in the year-earlier period because of higher costs and taxes.
Rowsley Ltd. (ROWS SP), a gaming and lottery operator, declined 6 Singapore cents, or 26 percent, to 17 cents. The company is dropping a plan to buy Perfect Field Investment Inc. in a so-called reverse takeover after the Chinese maker of solar-energy products failed to meet production-capacity targets, according to its filing to the stock exchange.
Singapore Exchange Ltd. (SGX SP), which operates the city's stock and derivatives markets, declined 70 cents, or 4.9 percent, to S$13.60. BNP Paribas gave the stock a ``reduce'' rating in new coverage, citing slowing earnings growth.
WBL Corp. (WBL SP), a maker of telecommunications equipment, fell 10 cents, or 2.5 percent, to S$3.90. The company said it will report a full-year loss because of charges stemming from its Thailand unit and lower earnings at its flexible printed circuit business.
Asian stocks plunge on growing worries over US housing slump
TOKYO : Asian stocks plunged again in early trade Monday, battered by growing fears that the fallout from the US housing slump will spread across the global economy, dealers said.
They said the Chinese central bank's latest move to try to cool the economy had further rattled investors following another big sell-off on Wall Street on Friday.
Tokyo slumped 3.7 percent, dropping below the key 15,000 points level briefly in early afternoon trade for the first time for almost 16 months as increased risk aversion lifted the yen, weighing heavily on exporters.
Shanghai also tumbled 3.7 percent after the central bank announced another hike in the bank reserve requirement.
Hong Kong followed suit, sliding 3.5 percent, while Seoul dropped 3.8 percent and Singapore gave up 2.7 percent.
"The overall market sentiment is turning bad," said Castor Pang, strategist at Sun Hung Kai Financial in Hong Kong.
"A lot of negative factors are weighing on the market such as the drop in the Dow Jones (on Friday) and the latest increase in the reserve ratio."
The gloom on Wall Street has intensified in recent days with investor confidence shaken by news of growing losses at major banks linked to the sub-prime mortgage crisis to homebuyers with patchy credit histories.
"Investors are holding back from reacting to the bargain levels of shares, as they are increasingly wary of financial and economic problems in the US, which may now linger for longer than previously expected," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manger of equities at Nikko Cordial Securities in Tokyo.
Markets are increasingly nervous that the overall US economy could be more severely affected than previously thought, which would in turn hit Asian exports to the world's largest economy.
"The sub-prime problem is not just affecting the US financial sector," said Michael Chen, vice president for research at CSC Securities HK Ltd.
"It is spreading out to the economy, which will affect other countries because the US is a major export destination."
Investors drew little comfort from a sharp drop in world oil prices after heavyweight producer Saudi Arabia indicated that the OPEC oil cartel will discuss raising output if the need arises, dealers said.
New York's benchmark light sweet crude contract for December delivery was down about a dollar a barrel in early Asian trade.
There was little sign of an easing of the selling pressure that has wiped almost 10 percent off the value of Tokyo's Nikkei index over the past six sessions.
Japan's government said it was taking a close interest in the slumping stock market.
"We have to watch developments very carefully," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura, the top government spokesman.
Over the weekend China's central bank raised the reserve requirement for banks by 50 basis points to 13.5 percent, effective November 26.
It was the ninth time this year that the reserve requirement, or the amount of deposits that banks must park with the central bank, has been increased in an effort to curb bank lending and slow economic growth.
The move added to the gloomy mood around the region.
Taipei fell 3.5 percent, Kuala Lumpur shed 1.4 percent and Manila declined 2.0 percent.
"The sub-prime problem seems to have turned for the worst with indications that the fallout may be spreading beyond the US financial system," said Francisco Liboro, president of PCCI Securities in Manila.
Elsewhere Sydney was down 0.5 percent, cushioned somewhat by speculation that the world's largest mining company BHP Billiton will raise its bid for rival Rio Tinto.
They said the Chinese central bank's latest move to try to cool the economy had further rattled investors following another big sell-off on Wall Street on Friday.
Tokyo slumped 3.7 percent, dropping below the key 15,000 points level briefly in early afternoon trade for the first time for almost 16 months as increased risk aversion lifted the yen, weighing heavily on exporters.
Shanghai also tumbled 3.7 percent after the central bank announced another hike in the bank reserve requirement.
Hong Kong followed suit, sliding 3.5 percent, while Seoul dropped 3.8 percent and Singapore gave up 2.7 percent.
"The overall market sentiment is turning bad," said Castor Pang, strategist at Sun Hung Kai Financial in Hong Kong.
"A lot of negative factors are weighing on the market such as the drop in the Dow Jones (on Friday) and the latest increase in the reserve ratio."
The gloom on Wall Street has intensified in recent days with investor confidence shaken by news of growing losses at major banks linked to the sub-prime mortgage crisis to homebuyers with patchy credit histories.
"Investors are holding back from reacting to the bargain levels of shares, as they are increasingly wary of financial and economic problems in the US, which may now linger for longer than previously expected," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manger of equities at Nikko Cordial Securities in Tokyo.
Markets are increasingly nervous that the overall US economy could be more severely affected than previously thought, which would in turn hit Asian exports to the world's largest economy.
"The sub-prime problem is not just affecting the US financial sector," said Michael Chen, vice president for research at CSC Securities HK Ltd.
"It is spreading out to the economy, which will affect other countries because the US is a major export destination."
Investors drew little comfort from a sharp drop in world oil prices after heavyweight producer Saudi Arabia indicated that the OPEC oil cartel will discuss raising output if the need arises, dealers said.
New York's benchmark light sweet crude contract for December delivery was down about a dollar a barrel in early Asian trade.
There was little sign of an easing of the selling pressure that has wiped almost 10 percent off the value of Tokyo's Nikkei index over the past six sessions.
Japan's government said it was taking a close interest in the slumping stock market.
"We have to watch developments very carefully," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura, the top government spokesman.
Over the weekend China's central bank raised the reserve requirement for banks by 50 basis points to 13.5 percent, effective November 26.
It was the ninth time this year that the reserve requirement, or the amount of deposits that banks must park with the central bank, has been increased in an effort to curb bank lending and slow economic growth.
The move added to the gloomy mood around the region.
Taipei fell 3.5 percent, Kuala Lumpur shed 1.4 percent and Manila declined 2.0 percent.
"The sub-prime problem seems to have turned for the worst with indications that the fallout may be spreading beyond the US financial system," said Francisco Liboro, president of PCCI Securities in Manila.
Elsewhere Sydney was down 0.5 percent, cushioned somewhat by speculation that the world's largest mining company BHP Billiton will raise its bid for rival Rio Tinto.
Investment firm Rowsley drops reverse takeover plan
SINGAPORE : Rowsley Ltd said Sunday it will not complete a reverse takeover deal with Chinese power firm Perfect Field.
Perfect Field has failed to meet a power generation benchmark stipulated in the takeover agreement and therefore the deal will not go ahead, Rowsley said.
If Perfect Field separately seeks a listing on the Singapore Exchange, Rowsley will have an option to buy 5 percent of the company at a 25 percent discount to the initial public offering price, however. "
By the time of the initial public offering, we will have greater clarity on its production capacity, its growth potential and the valuation put on its business," said Koh Kim Huat, Rowsley's chief executive.
Under an agreement announced in May, Rowsley planned to buy Perfect Field by selling its owners 18 billion new shares, which would have made them Rowsley's largest shareholders.
<--------- Oh no... bad news for Rowsley investors :(
Perfect Field has failed to meet a power generation benchmark stipulated in the takeover agreement and therefore the deal will not go ahead, Rowsley said.
If Perfect Field separately seeks a listing on the Singapore Exchange, Rowsley will have an option to buy 5 percent of the company at a 25 percent discount to the initial public offering price, however. "
By the time of the initial public offering, we will have greater clarity on its production capacity, its growth potential and the valuation put on its business," said Koh Kim Huat, Rowsley's chief executive.
Under an agreement announced in May, Rowsley planned to buy Perfect Field by selling its owners 18 billion new shares, which would have made them Rowsley's largest shareholders.
<--------- Oh no... bad news for Rowsley investors :(
An interesting view from Puntfast - CNA Forum 12/11/2007
The DOW is about to break 13000 pts downwards, US$ is at all time low and inflation threatens. Think long term vs think short term. There is a world of difference.
There is little doubt that the day of reckoning for US markets will come because of inflation - the question is when not whether.
For long term investors many have gotten out already as this 7 good years is closing to an end.
But for short term investors, I paint a different picture. While the logic of the moves in the market is correct, the size of the moves is wrong. What do I mean?
Citigroup shares falling from $55 to $33? It is logical for citibank shares to fall but by more than 30%? Its losses of US$11B is relative assets of 2 trillion and earnings of $20B. The move is correct but the size is wrong.
We see much distortion in prices - $100 oil does it make sense? The Indian govt now directly buy oil fields and pump out the oil to supply to india for a total of $40. Yes oil should go up but is $100 too high?
The reason for extreme moves is the hedge fund money seeking short term returns. They bet trends and make short term trends go further than further than fundamentals justify. Very soon when profits get very fat on various sharp swings - US$, Crude Oil, stock futures short positions. They will take the profits and cause a stampede in the reverse directions.
Right now there is EXTREME risks as hedge funds push markets further to the edge. If the rubber band does not break it will snap back. This rubber band is robust because of sovereign funds & traditional mutual funds that invest in value.
Sovereign funds exceeds hedge funds as of today and it will be difficult for them to break the markets like they did during the Asian crisis.
I'm betting this rubber band will snap back very soon. HSI will snap back, STI will snap back and US$ will snap back.
This is a high risk short term bet which you should not bet your whole house on. I'm seeing risk as opportunity.....a different short term view...
There is little doubt that the day of reckoning for US markets will come because of inflation - the question is when not whether.
For long term investors many have gotten out already as this 7 good years is closing to an end.
But for short term investors, I paint a different picture. While the logic of the moves in the market is correct, the size of the moves is wrong. What do I mean?
Citigroup shares falling from $55 to $33? It is logical for citibank shares to fall but by more than 30%? Its losses of US$11B is relative assets of 2 trillion and earnings of $20B. The move is correct but the size is wrong.
We see much distortion in prices - $100 oil does it make sense? The Indian govt now directly buy oil fields and pump out the oil to supply to india for a total of $40. Yes oil should go up but is $100 too high?
The reason for extreme moves is the hedge fund money seeking short term returns. They bet trends and make short term trends go further than further than fundamentals justify. Very soon when profits get very fat on various sharp swings - US$, Crude Oil, stock futures short positions. They will take the profits and cause a stampede in the reverse directions.
Right now there is EXTREME risks as hedge funds push markets further to the edge. If the rubber band does not break it will snap back. This rubber band is robust because of sovereign funds & traditional mutual funds that invest in value.
Sovereign funds exceeds hedge funds as of today and it will be difficult for them to break the markets like they did during the Asian crisis.
I'm betting this rubber band will snap back very soon. HSI will snap back, STI will snap back and US$ will snap back.
This is a high risk short term bet which you should not bet your whole house on. I'm seeing risk as opportunity.....a different short term view...
Investors Brace for More Bad Bank News
Wall Street, Bracing for More Bad News From Banks, Also Awaits Retail Sales, Price Indexes
NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market this week is hoping for signs that the economy is surviving the problems in the financial sector -- and that the Federal Reserve will come to the rescue if it's not.
Investors are slowly getting a clearer picture of how much in risky and deteriorating debt securities the world's major financial institutions are holding, and they don't like what they see.
Wall Street already expects banks' portfolios to lose at least $20 billion in the fourth quarter, after announcements of anticipated writedowns of mortgage-backed securities and other debt instruments by such financial institutions as Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley and Wachovia Corp. Investors have been bracing for fourth-quarter writedowns for a while, but the amount was larger than many were prepared to hear. As a result, volatility has returned to virtually all corners of Wall Street.
NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market this week is hoping for signs that the economy is surviving the problems in the financial sector -- and that the Federal Reserve will come to the rescue if it's not.
Investors are slowly getting a clearer picture of how much in risky and deteriorating debt securities the world's major financial institutions are holding, and they don't like what they see.
Wall Street already expects banks' portfolios to lose at least $20 billion in the fourth quarter, after announcements of anticipated writedowns of mortgage-backed securities and other debt instruments by such financial institutions as Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley and Wachovia Corp. Investors have been bracing for fourth-quarter writedowns for a while, but the amount was larger than many were prepared to hear. As a result, volatility has returned to virtually all corners of Wall Street.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Banks said to agree on $75B credit fund: report
Agreement would end months of complicated negotiations as economic conditions deteriorate, according to The New York Times
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The nation's three biggest banks have agreed on the structure of a backup fund of at least $75 billion in an effort to help stabilize the credit markets, according to a person involved in the discussions, The New York Times reported Saturday.
Representatives from Bank of America (Charts, Fortune 500), Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500) and J.P. Morgan Chase (Charts, Fortune 500) reached an agreement on a simpler plan late Friday, according to the Times. Previous versions in the two nearly two months of negotiations had been considered unfeasible.
The proposed fund could begin operating by the end of the year, and the banks would start to ask about 60 financial institutions to contribute to it by Friday or early next week, the Times reported.
The group of banks have said they created the fund to buy shaky mortgage-backed securities.
While it doesn't change the fundamental problem facing the mortgage market - rising delinquencies on subprime mortgages - the fund could increase confidence in some better-quality mortgage-related debt.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The nation's three biggest banks have agreed on the structure of a backup fund of at least $75 billion in an effort to help stabilize the credit markets, according to a person involved in the discussions, The New York Times reported Saturday.
Representatives from Bank of America (Charts, Fortune 500), Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500) and J.P. Morgan Chase (Charts, Fortune 500) reached an agreement on a simpler plan late Friday, according to the Times. Previous versions in the two nearly two months of negotiations had been considered unfeasible.
The proposed fund could begin operating by the end of the year, and the banks would start to ask about 60 financial institutions to contribute to it by Friday or early next week, the Times reported.
The group of banks have said they created the fund to buy shaky mortgage-backed securities.
While it doesn't change the fundamental problem facing the mortgage market - rising delinquencies on subprime mortgages - the fund could increase confidence in some better-quality mortgage-related debt.
Retail sales and data may trip up stocks
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Any new signs that the economy continues to decelerate could make it hard for stocks to regain their footing in the coming days after last week's bruising sell-off and a drop in consumer sentiment to a two-year low.
Monthly data from the Commerce Department, due on Wednesday, is expected to show retail sales rose 0.2 percent in October, according to the consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters.
That would represent a slower pace from the 0.6 percent increase in September, which was bolstered by gasoline sales.
"We've had a series of weak numbers, so the retail sales could impact the markets quite a bit," said Brian Stine, senior portfolio manager with Allegiant Asset Management in Cleveland.
Wednesday also brings the U.S. Producer Price Index for October from the Labor Department. The consensus forecast is for an increase of 0.3 percent in overall PPI and a 0.2 percent gain in core PPI, which factors out volatile food and energy prices.
The week starts off with the bond market closed on Monday for the Veterans Day observance, but stocks will trade as usual. There is no government data scheduled for Monday.
Tuesday's data includes pending sales of previously owned homes for September. The consensus forecast is for a decline of 2.8 percent, after a big drop of 6.5 percent in August.
On Friday, the Federal Reserve reports on industrial production for October. An increase of 0.1 percent is forecast, identical to the rise in September. Capacity utilization is expected to dip to 82.0 percent from 82.1 percent.
FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS
Stine of Allegiant Asset Management expects increased stock market volatility in the remaining weeks of 2007, as some players wind up their activity for the year and liquidity is reduced.
Heilweil of Spectrum Advisory Services believes that Wall Street hasn't seen the last of bad news.
"I doubt the market has quite hit its bottom," Heilweil said.
But he also says there is cash on the sidelines and values are starting to appear in certain sectors.
Monthly data from the Commerce Department, due on Wednesday, is expected to show retail sales rose 0.2 percent in October, according to the consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters.
That would represent a slower pace from the 0.6 percent increase in September, which was bolstered by gasoline sales.
"We've had a series of weak numbers, so the retail sales could impact the markets quite a bit," said Brian Stine, senior portfolio manager with Allegiant Asset Management in Cleveland.
Wednesday also brings the U.S. Producer Price Index for October from the Labor Department. The consensus forecast is for an increase of 0.3 percent in overall PPI and a 0.2 percent gain in core PPI, which factors out volatile food and energy prices.
The week starts off with the bond market closed on Monday for the Veterans Day observance, but stocks will trade as usual. There is no government data scheduled for Monday.
Tuesday's data includes pending sales of previously owned homes for September. The consensus forecast is for a decline of 2.8 percent, after a big drop of 6.5 percent in August.
On Friday, the Federal Reserve reports on industrial production for October. An increase of 0.1 percent is forecast, identical to the rise in September. Capacity utilization is expected to dip to 82.0 percent from 82.1 percent.
FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS
Stine of Allegiant Asset Management expects increased stock market volatility in the remaining weeks of 2007, as some players wind up their activity for the year and liquidity is reduced.
Heilweil of Spectrum Advisory Services believes that Wall Street hasn't seen the last of bad news.
"I doubt the market has quite hit its bottom," Heilweil said.
But he also says there is cash on the sidelines and values are starting to appear in certain sectors.
下周高開 淡友離場 - 林旺
期指昨日突破15分鐘圖下降軌，但並未升抵29236，建議高位造淡策略，未有執行。
期指昨日最低28330，稍跌破周二低位28371。而自歷史高位31943的跌浪，已呈五浪下跌，跌幅3,613點。
假定首組跌浪已經完成，現正反彈跌浪的0.382倍、0.5倍及0.618倍，目標分別為29710、30136及30562。
不過，期指下周一如跌破28330，則有機會屬之字形跌浪，首組三浪段跌浪見周二28371，第二組反彈浪見翌日30090，目前正運行第三組跌浪，五浪段目標約為日綫圖頭肩頂量度目標25000水平。
期指下周一開市上升，假定反彈浪展開，淡友先離場。但稍作低開20、30點，跌破28330，其後反彈至10分鐘圖的10時段平均綫可以造淡，目標27290，以入市點數100點止蝕。
期指昨日最低28330，稍跌破周二低位28371。而自歷史高位31943的跌浪，已呈五浪下跌，跌幅3,613點。
假定首組跌浪已經完成，現正反彈跌浪的0.382倍、0.5倍及0.618倍，目標分別為29710、30136及30562。
不過，期指下周一如跌破28330，則有機會屬之字形跌浪，首組三浪段跌浪見周二28371，第二組反彈浪見翌日30090，目前正運行第三組跌浪，五浪段目標約為日綫圖頭肩頂量度目標25000水平。
期指下周一開市上升，假定反彈浪展開，淡友先離場。但稍作低開20、30點，跌破28330，其後反彈至10分鐘圖的10時段平均綫可以造淡，目標27290，以入市點數100點止蝕。
Saturday, November 10, 2007
10日線阻力大調整未完 - 寶維
期指持續波動，低開後一度跌至28330本周低位，止跌後又急速回升，並回補前日部份的下跌裂口，以28871收市，升332點，低水轉高水88 點。
滙豐突然減息0.25厘，短線對地產股有支持，不過外圍市況依然不明朗，令現貨升幅收窄，成交連續3日下跌，反映投資者開始觀望。
期指本周3度跌至 28300水平均現支持，為好友的短期防線，不過，中期調整剛開始，以時間及幅度而言，後市仍有下跌空間，月底結算前亦難望回納升軌，於29600至 30000形成沽壓區，10日線有強大阻力。
周線圖出現大陰燭下跌，全周急挫1590點，10周線支持在27780，隨機指數快速下滑，中期頂區明顯，由於在調整期，料第一輪跌浪完成後，短線傾向橫行鞏固。
H股期指受制降軌
H股期指呈技術反彈，觸底後急升，高見18073，報收17673，升240點，低水收窄至31點，成交下降。內地股市偏軟，國企股個別發展，動力不足，H股期指仍受制短期下降軌。
近幾日投機沽盤增加，未平倉合約回升至10萬張，處偏高水平，前日的裂口會有阻力，若下周初未能回補，有機會下試近17000。
H股期指全周波幅2030點，已跌回10周線，動力指數急跌，料下跌C浪會在未來兩周尋底，現水平不宜入市撈底。
滙豐突然減息0.25厘，短線對地產股有支持，不過外圍市況依然不明朗，令現貨升幅收窄，成交連續3日下跌，反映投資者開始觀望。
期指本周3度跌至 28300水平均現支持，為好友的短期防線，不過，中期調整剛開始，以時間及幅度而言，後市仍有下跌空間，月底結算前亦難望回納升軌，於29600至 30000形成沽壓區，10日線有強大阻力。
周線圖出現大陰燭下跌，全周急挫1590點，10周線支持在27780，隨機指數快速下滑，中期頂區明顯，由於在調整期，料第一輪跌浪完成後，短線傾向橫行鞏固。
H股期指受制降軌
H股期指呈技術反彈，觸底後急升，高見18073，報收17673，升240點，低水收窄至31點，成交下降。內地股市偏軟，國企股個別發展，動力不足，H股期指仍受制短期下降軌。
近幾日投機沽盤增加，未平倉合約回升至10萬張，處偏高水平，前日的裂口會有阻力，若下周初未能回補，有機會下試近17000。
H股期指全周波幅2030點，已跌回10周線，動力指數急跌，料下跌C浪會在未來兩周尋底，現水平不宜入市撈底。
摩根：亚洲股市明年料涨30％
（美国彭博电）尽管美国股市深陷次贷风暴中，摩根士丹利还是有信心，日本以外的亚洲股市将在2008年上涨大约30％。
这家公司刚刚发表的一份报告书认为，亚洲公司的盈利上升，将吸引资金涌到区域，带动股票的估值膨胀。“经过一轮的牛市猛冲后，（股市的）速度必须放缓下来。我们看好亚洲的增长、现金流通情况和股价将比以往更有持守力，因此将趁低吸购。”
目前，摩根士丹利资本国际亚太区域（不包括日本）指数涵盖了671只股票，不过预计在明年底将涵盖740只股票。今年来，该指数已经攀升了大约42％。
该报告书也建议投资者加磅香港、中国、新加坡和马来西亚的股票，并减持澳洲、印度、韩国和台湾股票。
这家公司刚刚发表的一份报告书认为，亚洲公司的盈利上升，将吸引资金涌到区域，带动股票的估值膨胀。“经过一轮的牛市猛冲后，（股市的）速度必须放缓下来。我们看好亚洲的增长、现金流通情况和股价将比以往更有持守力，因此将趁低吸购。”
目前，摩根士丹利资本国际亚太区域（不包括日本）指数涵盖了671只股票，不过预计在明年底将涵盖740只股票。今年来，该指数已经攀升了大约42％。
该报告书也建议投资者加磅香港、中国、新加坡和马来西亚的股票，并减持澳洲、印度、韩国和台湾股票。
身不由己心亂無奈 - 王冠一
聯儲局主席伯南克出席國會聯合經濟委員會作證時，所講的一番說話，可謂老生常談，是本欄忠實讀者相信都識背──甚麼樓市滑坡或影響消費及投資；面對信貸緊縮、樓價下跌，可能拖累未來經濟增長；
另外，油價和商品價格上升，加上弱美元，恐怕會為通脹增添壓力。聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）於上月已察覺到經濟增長及物價水平同樣存在風險，正努力取得平衡，不過明年經濟有望好轉，並注視次按問題會否蔓延至最終拖累經濟云云……係人都知啦！
Ben哥之言沒啥新意，乃意料中事，因為事實擺在眼前，一個接一個泡沫──由1998年長期資本管理（LTCM）對冲基金出事，聯儲局搏命減息至製造科網股泡沫，到後者爆破後又再製造樓市泡沫、信貸泡沫，接連爆破之際，身不由己的伯南克，又可做些甚麼？何出此言？
冠一不是說過，自從喬治布殊接過克林頓交下來的「燙手山芋」後，接二連三發生事情，作為領袖，難道可以棄位潛逃或畏首畏尾？故此，他必須施展渾身解數，以保聲譽，不然怎向老爺子家族及幕後大力支持之「選民」交代？
無所不用其極，頭痛醫頭、腳痛醫腳，才能頂到今日。豈料在救亡的過程中，華爾街班搵銀大帝竟然富有創意地，發明了所謂「結構性投資工具」（SIVs），幫助頂住個經濟。本來這是件好事，然則人性之貪婪，令人食過翻尋味，加上花紅引誘力不可抗拒的環境下，惟有以「私利」為依歸──越博越賺、越賺越多、越博越大，到最後……瞧瞧花旗和美林輸多少？其舵手黯然下台，又豈是偶然？如此這般，作為主子護航者，又有何話可說？君不見在受凶神惡煞的議員質問及指控時，神情落漠及支吾以對之Ben哥，是何等無奈！
另外，油價和商品價格上升，加上弱美元，恐怕會為通脹增添壓力。聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）於上月已察覺到經濟增長及物價水平同樣存在風險，正努力取得平衡，不過明年經濟有望好轉，並注視次按問題會否蔓延至最終拖累經濟云云……係人都知啦！
Ben哥之言沒啥新意，乃意料中事，因為事實擺在眼前，一個接一個泡沫──由1998年長期資本管理（LTCM）對冲基金出事，聯儲局搏命減息至製造科網股泡沫，到後者爆破後又再製造樓市泡沫、信貸泡沫，接連爆破之際，身不由己的伯南克，又可做些甚麼？何出此言？
冠一不是說過，自從喬治布殊接過克林頓交下來的「燙手山芋」後，接二連三發生事情，作為領袖，難道可以棄位潛逃或畏首畏尾？故此，他必須施展渾身解數，以保聲譽，不然怎向老爺子家族及幕後大力支持之「選民」交代？
無所不用其極，頭痛醫頭、腳痛醫腳，才能頂到今日。豈料在救亡的過程中，華爾街班搵銀大帝竟然富有創意地，發明了所謂「結構性投資工具」（SIVs），幫助頂住個經濟。本來這是件好事，然則人性之貪婪，令人食過翻尋味，加上花紅引誘力不可抗拒的環境下，惟有以「私利」為依歸──越博越賺、越賺越多、越博越大，到最後……瞧瞧花旗和美林輸多少？其舵手黯然下台，又豈是偶然？如此這般，作為主子護航者，又有何話可說？君不見在受凶神惡煞的議員質問及指控時，神情落漠及支吾以對之Ben哥，是何等無奈！
Stocks End Volatile Week With Huge Drop
Stocks Skid Again; Investors on Edge As Wachovia Takes Writedown, Economic Worries Persist
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street finished a turbulent week with another huge drop Friday after major banks warned of further losses on their debt portfolios, raising investor concerns that the credit market slump shows no sign of abating. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 220 points.
Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wachovia Corp. all said the ongoing credit crisis will cause another round of heavy losses during the fourth quarter. Financial institutions took big hits during the last quarter as losses from subprime mortgages hurt their balance sheets, and these three companies were just the latest to report bad news that sent stocks lower.
BofA said continued "market dislocations," including those related to securities it owns that are backed by loans, will affect its fourth-quarter results. The bank did not provide an estimate of how large the impact will be. JPMorgan said difficult conditions may cause a fourth-quarter writedown, but did not say how much.
Wachovia, the nation's fourth-largest bank said it faced a $1.1 billion writedown for October alone. Investors also were rattled by speculation that Barclays PLC was about to announce a $10 billion writedown, though the U.K. bank denied the rumors.
"The extent of the situation is unknown, and that uncertainty doesn't give investors any reasons to believe that a bottom might be in place," said Todd Salamone, director of trading and vice president of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "We just got more of the same this week rattling investors, and the question for investors becomes what's the next catalyst to drive stocks higher."
Further worries about the continuing credit market slump kept investors on edge a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he expects the economy to "slow noticeably" this quarter.
He also said the dollar's weakness "may have some effect on import prices" -- which was confirmed Friday in new government data. The Commerce Department reported U.S. import prices soared last month at their fastest pace since early last year.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment index tumbled for its weakest performance since October 2005.
The Dow Jones industrials fell 223.55, or 1.69 percent, to 13,042.74. The blue chip index is down 1,155.35 points, or 8.14 percent, since its trading high of 14,198.09, reached in August.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index was off 21.07, or 1.43 percent, at 1,453.70, while the Nasdaq composite index tumbled 68.06, or 2.52 percent, to 2,627.94.
Friday's performance capped another dismal week for stocks. The Dow racheted up and down, including a 360-point plunge Wednesday that was the blue chips' third drop of more than 350 points in a month; the volatility was proof of how anxious and how quick to sell investors are in what has become a steady flow of bad news about credit losses.
For the week, the Dow dropped 4.06 percent and the S&P 500 tumbled 3.71 percent. The technology-focused Nasdaq, which often trades with more volatility, plunged 6.49 percent.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street finished a turbulent week with another huge drop Friday after major banks warned of further losses on their debt portfolios, raising investor concerns that the credit market slump shows no sign of abating. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 220 points.
Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wachovia Corp. all said the ongoing credit crisis will cause another round of heavy losses during the fourth quarter. Financial institutions took big hits during the last quarter as losses from subprime mortgages hurt their balance sheets, and these three companies were just the latest to report bad news that sent stocks lower.
BofA said continued "market dislocations," including those related to securities it owns that are backed by loans, will affect its fourth-quarter results. The bank did not provide an estimate of how large the impact will be. JPMorgan said difficult conditions may cause a fourth-quarter writedown, but did not say how much.
Wachovia, the nation's fourth-largest bank said it faced a $1.1 billion writedown for October alone. Investors also were rattled by speculation that Barclays PLC was about to announce a $10 billion writedown, though the U.K. bank denied the rumors.
"The extent of the situation is unknown, and that uncertainty doesn't give investors any reasons to believe that a bottom might be in place," said Todd Salamone, director of trading and vice president of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "We just got more of the same this week rattling investors, and the question for investors becomes what's the next catalyst to drive stocks higher."
Further worries about the continuing credit market slump kept investors on edge a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he expects the economy to "slow noticeably" this quarter.
He also said the dollar's weakness "may have some effect on import prices" -- which was confirmed Friday in new government data. The Commerce Department reported U.S. import prices soared last month at their fastest pace since early last year.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment index tumbled for its weakest performance since October 2005.
The Dow Jones industrials fell 223.55, or 1.69 percent, to 13,042.74. The blue chip index is down 1,155.35 points, or 8.14 percent, since its trading high of 14,198.09, reached in August.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index was off 21.07, or 1.43 percent, at 1,453.70, while the Nasdaq composite index tumbled 68.06, or 2.52 percent, to 2,627.94.
Friday's performance capped another dismal week for stocks. The Dow racheted up and down, including a 360-point plunge Wednesday that was the blue chips' third drop of more than 350 points in a month; the volatility was proof of how anxious and how quick to sell investors are in what has become a steady flow of bad news about credit losses.
For the week, the Dow dropped 4.06 percent and the S&P 500 tumbled 3.71 percent. The technology-focused Nasdaq, which often trades with more volatility, plunged 6.49 percent.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Why we hate George Bush? Yes..that so-called US President
1)In exchange for large U.S. oil companies gaining access to occupied territories, Bush reportedly gave $43 million of your tax dollars to the Taliban in May of 2001 - only 4 months before their September 11th attacks on the United States!
2)Bush had no concern about terrorist attacks on the U.S. before 9/11/01.
3)The Bush Regime failed to protect the people of Baghdad from looting, riots, bombings, and other undue circumstances, following the fall of the city - so that the oil ministry would be heavily guarded by U.S. troops.
4)After Bush's "election" was officially announced, President Clinton requested numerous meetings with Bush - specifically to discuss terrorists threats and making them a priority of Bush's Regime. Bush refused to meet with Pres. Clinton, but allowed one of his staff "underlings" to talk to Clinton instead. Not surprisingly, Bush never bothered to find out what Clinton had to say.
5)Bush loved Enron! To prove it, he appointed Thomas White as the Army Secretary. White is a former Enron executive who conveniently sold his stock after an Enron official contacted him. Oh yeah, and he is under criminal investigation for the Enron thing!
6)Bush lied to the American public and Congress about the Taliban's motives in the 9/11/01 attacks in order to gain approval of extremist foreign policies and shield their eyes from the true dangers of the "Patriot Act."
7)Bush and Cheney both refused to testify under oath - or by themselves - to the 9/11 Commission. What do you think they are trying to hide from the public?
8)Bush's oil buddies celebrated when he nominated J. Steven Giles as Deputy Secretary of the Interior. Giles was an oil and coal lobbyist!
9)Many of Bush's buddies own oil companies, so it's not at all shocking that he cut government funding to research renewable energy sources by 50%!
10)A little controversy in the Bush Regime... Bush allowed Interior Secretary Gale Norton to auction oil and gas development tracts off the coast of eastern Florida. Which one(s) of Bush's oil buddies benefited from this!!??
11)Undermining world peace, Bush condoned the Israeli reoccupation of Palestinian territory and rejected the U.N. Security Council's resolutions that provide a framework for conflict resolution between the two. The resolutions have been supported by previous U.S. administrations.
12)Bush further attacks women - this time Asian women who were forced to work as sex slaves in Japan during WWII - by seeking the dismissal of a class-action lawsuit against Japan.
13)"The terrorists are coming, the terrorists are coming!" That's all that our Chicken-Little-In-Chief cares about. Therefore, Bush proposed eliminating a federal program to help communities prepare for natural disasters. The program had been developed and successfully used in Seattle. Never mind that! "The terrorists are coming, the terrorists are coming!"
14)Bush and his cabal of henchmen lied to the American people about Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq, and they continue to obfuscate the truth while their companies cash in, Iraqis suffer and American soldiers die.
15)Bush has tried to undermine the United Nations, a democratic institution created in large measure by Presidents Eisenhower and Truman. Without even understanding what the UN does, Bush has called it "irrelevant" when it fails to fall in line with his dictates.
All in all, Bush took positive patriotism and global support in the wake of 9/11 and forced it behind his own narrow self-interest in Iraq. He hijacked 9/11 for his own benefit.
2)Bush had no concern about terrorist attacks on the U.S. before 9/11/01.
3)The Bush Regime failed to protect the people of Baghdad from looting, riots, bombings, and other undue circumstances, following the fall of the city - so that the oil ministry would be heavily guarded by U.S. troops.
4)After Bush's "election" was officially announced, President Clinton requested numerous meetings with Bush - specifically to discuss terrorists threats and making them a priority of Bush's Regime. Bush refused to meet with Pres. Clinton, but allowed one of his staff "underlings" to talk to Clinton instead. Not surprisingly, Bush never bothered to find out what Clinton had to say.
5)Bush loved Enron! To prove it, he appointed Thomas White as the Army Secretary. White is a former Enron executive who conveniently sold his stock after an Enron official contacted him. Oh yeah, and he is under criminal investigation for the Enron thing!
6)Bush lied to the American public and Congress about the Taliban's motives in the 9/11/01 attacks in order to gain approval of extremist foreign policies and shield their eyes from the true dangers of the "Patriot Act."
7)Bush and Cheney both refused to testify under oath - or by themselves - to the 9/11 Commission. What do you think they are trying to hide from the public?
8)Bush's oil buddies celebrated when he nominated J. Steven Giles as Deputy Secretary of the Interior. Giles was an oil and coal lobbyist!
9)Many of Bush's buddies own oil companies, so it's not at all shocking that he cut government funding to research renewable energy sources by 50%!
10)A little controversy in the Bush Regime... Bush allowed Interior Secretary Gale Norton to auction oil and gas development tracts off the coast of eastern Florida. Which one(s) of Bush's oil buddies benefited from this!!??
11)Undermining world peace, Bush condoned the Israeli reoccupation of Palestinian territory and rejected the U.N. Security Council's resolutions that provide a framework for conflict resolution between the two. The resolutions have been supported by previous U.S. administrations.
12)Bush further attacks women - this time Asian women who were forced to work as sex slaves in Japan during WWII - by seeking the dismissal of a class-action lawsuit against Japan.
13)"The terrorists are coming, the terrorists are coming!" That's all that our Chicken-Little-In-Chief cares about. Therefore, Bush proposed eliminating a federal program to help communities prepare for natural disasters. The program had been developed and successfully used in Seattle. Never mind that! "The terrorists are coming, the terrorists are coming!"
14)Bush and his cabal of henchmen lied to the American people about Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq, and they continue to obfuscate the truth while their companies cash in, Iraqis suffer and American soldiers die.
15)Bush has tried to undermine the United Nations, a democratic institution created in large measure by Presidents Eisenhower and Truman. Without even understanding what the UN does, Bush has called it "irrelevant" when it fails to fall in line with his dictates.
All in all, Bush took positive patriotism and global support in the wake of 9/11 and forced it behind his own narrow self-interest in Iraq. He hijacked 9/11 for his own benefit.
Wall Street Poised for Another Down Day
Stock Futures Point Lower on Wachovia Warning, Ahead of Economic Data; Investors Stay on Edge
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks headed to a lower open Friday after Wachovia Corp. said it expects to increase quarterly loan losses, raising investor concern about the continuing credit crisis.
The nation's fourth-largest bank said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that credit market volatility could cause a $1.1 billion write-down for October alone. The problem stems from its asset-backed securities, such as collateralized debt obligations, that have lost value on sinking investor demand.
Investors were also worried after Qualcomm Inc., the nation's second-biggest maker of chips that run mobile phones, predicted late Thursday after the closing bell that fiscal fourth-quarter earnings nearly doubled. But, heightened competition and legal troubles will cause 2008 results to fall 4 percent to 7 percent below Wall Street projections.
The market was also on edge after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that policy makers expect the economy to "slow noticeably" this quarter. His comments caused major indexes to fall -- contributing to a slide this week on concerns about continuing credit woes, a weakening dollar and rising oil prices.
Dow Jones industrial futures fell 87, or 0.66 percent, to 13,175. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures fell 11.30, or 0.77 percent, to 1,464.20, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 16.00, or 0.76 percent, to 2,089.50.
Investors are waiting for data on the September trade balance and October import prices as well as the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey for November.
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release its monthly report on international trade in goods and services, based on documents from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, at 8:30 am EST.
The preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan monthly index of consumer sentiment will be released Friday at 10 a.m. EST. Economists expect consumer sentiment will inch downward amid persistent worries about the housing recession and high energy prices.
Key among their worries is the escalating prices of oil, which has been trading just off of $100 a barrel. Light, sweet crude fell 40 cents to $94.06 in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In corporate news, wireless high-speed Internet provider Clearwire Corp. and Sprint Nextel Corp. announced before the bell they scrapped an agreement to jointly build a nationwide WiFi network. Clearwire also reported its third-quarter loss widened more than expected.
Walt Disney & Co. shares were also in focus after the entertainment company said late Thursday fiscal fourth-quarter profit rose 12 percent, driven by sports network ESPN and turnout at its U.S. theme parks. However, executives remain concerned about a Hollywood writers strike that began this week.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed down 1.19 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.08 percent. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.66 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 0.50 percent, and France's CAC-40 shed 0.96 percent.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks headed to a lower open Friday after Wachovia Corp. said it expects to increase quarterly loan losses, raising investor concern about the continuing credit crisis.
The nation's fourth-largest bank said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that credit market volatility could cause a $1.1 billion write-down for October alone. The problem stems from its asset-backed securities, such as collateralized debt obligations, that have lost value on sinking investor demand.
Investors were also worried after Qualcomm Inc., the nation's second-biggest maker of chips that run mobile phones, predicted late Thursday after the closing bell that fiscal fourth-quarter earnings nearly doubled. But, heightened competition and legal troubles will cause 2008 results to fall 4 percent to 7 percent below Wall Street projections.
The market was also on edge after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that policy makers expect the economy to "slow noticeably" this quarter. His comments caused major indexes to fall -- contributing to a slide this week on concerns about continuing credit woes, a weakening dollar and rising oil prices.
Dow Jones industrial futures fell 87, or 0.66 percent, to 13,175. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures fell 11.30, or 0.77 percent, to 1,464.20, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 16.00, or 0.76 percent, to 2,089.50.
Investors are waiting for data on the September trade balance and October import prices as well as the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey for November.
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release its monthly report on international trade in goods and services, based on documents from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, at 8:30 am EST.
The preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan monthly index of consumer sentiment will be released Friday at 10 a.m. EST. Economists expect consumer sentiment will inch downward amid persistent worries about the housing recession and high energy prices.
Key among their worries is the escalating prices of oil, which has been trading just off of $100 a barrel. Light, sweet crude fell 40 cents to $94.06 in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In corporate news, wireless high-speed Internet provider Clearwire Corp. and Sprint Nextel Corp. announced before the bell they scrapped an agreement to jointly build a nationwide WiFi network. Clearwire also reported its third-quarter loss widened more than expected.
Walt Disney & Co. shares were also in focus after the entertainment company said late Thursday fiscal fourth-quarter profit rose 12 percent, driven by sports network ESPN and turnout at its U.S. theme parks. However, executives remain concerned about a Hollywood writers strike that began this week.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed down 1.19 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.08 percent. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.66 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 0.50 percent, and France's CAC-40 shed 0.96 percent.
跌市修正錯誤升浪 - 沈振盈
美股暴跌令港股帶來震盪，但若以亞洲區股市來說，跌得最多的反而是上海A股，跌幅4.86%。港股的跌幅究竟是跟外圍還是跟中國股市呢？實難區分。但有一點是可以肯定的，就是中資股的弱勢極明顯，亦印證了筆者在早前的評論是正確的，就是明托恒指，暗沽國企。早前資金流入香港，大家以此作為看好後市的理據。現在回看，又是另一次的歷史重演！資金流入香港之時，正是資金流出港股之時。
三保中石油勿沾手
保險股持續弱勢，「三保」在圖表上皆出現大圓頂形態，仍要進一步尋底，大家暫不宜沾手。中石油（857）繼續看淡，油價升而此股不升，很多人問點解？原因簡單不過，股神沽完貨，油價尚未升，其股價已升；A股上市，又升；估計會入恒指成份股，又升。任何可以用來挾高股價的理由皆用盡，到油價升之時它下跌，實屬正常。故此，近周筆者一直建議沽空中石油，不用理會油價的升跌，並要在其A股上市前進行。今次跌市，大部份小投資者皆很鎮定，大家信心十足，皆因過往數次「狼來了」之時，大市都很快就升回高位，數千點的震盪已被適應下來。從8月中至10月尾的升浪中，散戶已被潛移默化去接受港股必升的道理，無數的歪理變成真理，大家自然信心十足。然而，大家有沒有反思過，國家政策究竟想港股在30000點的水平下跌，還是想大市不斷上升？從「十七大」開會期間之公佈，其實已可知一二。然而，有心人不斷發放利好消息，連「AH股互換」也可將大市抽升千多點，手法確實成功。當大家對大市的上升深信不疑之時，也就是作出修正「炒過龍」的時候。點解大市要跌？因為早前錯誤無理地炒得太高。
作者沈振盈為證監會持牌人士
三保中石油勿沾手
保險股持續弱勢，「三保」在圖表上皆出現大圓頂形態，仍要進一步尋底，大家暫不宜沾手。中石油（857）繼續看淡，油價升而此股不升，很多人問點解？原因簡單不過，股神沽完貨，油價尚未升，其股價已升；A股上市，又升；估計會入恒指成份股，又升。任何可以用來挾高股價的理由皆用盡，到油價升之時它下跌，實屬正常。故此，近周筆者一直建議沽空中石油，不用理會油價的升跌，並要在其A股上市前進行。今次跌市，大部份小投資者皆很鎮定，大家信心十足，皆因過往數次「狼來了」之時，大市都很快就升回高位，數千點的震盪已被適應下來。從8月中至10月尾的升浪中，散戶已被潛移默化去接受港股必升的道理，無數的歪理變成真理，大家自然信心十足。然而，大家有沒有反思過，國家政策究竟想港股在30000點的水平下跌，還是想大市不斷上升？從「十七大」開會期間之公佈，其實已可知一二。然而，有心人不斷發放利好消息，連「AH股互換」也可將大市抽升千多點，手法確實成功。當大家對大市的上升深信不疑之時，也就是作出修正「炒過龍」的時候。點解大市要跌？因為早前錯誤無理地炒得太高。
作者沈振盈為證監會持牌人士
減息不能當好消息炒 - 沈振盈
究竟減息是有利股市還是不利股市？正反雙方各有睇法，其實當中差別只在於時間性及市場的反應。減息之所以令股市升，因為大家預期息口有下跌的趨勢，長遠來說，當息率跌至一個極低水平之時，自然會刺激經濟復蘇。
股市之所以跟隨減息公佈而上升，就是預先反映此因素。減息之所以令股市跌，是因為聯儲局以經濟狀況來決定是否減息，經濟唔掂就要減，越唔掂就越減，所以每次減息後股市皆跌。至此，大家可能摸不着頭腦！究竟減息是否利好股市呢？
首先，大家要明白，一次半次的減息不能即時解決經濟問題，或許換句說話講，「低息可刺激經濟，不是減息可刺激經濟」。
「減息」要減到某一水平才可刺激經濟。「高息」可以冷卻經濟，加息要加到某一水平才可達到此一目標。
歷史已清楚告訴我們，1999年的加息周期，股市越加越升；2001年的減息周期，除了首兩次減息外，每一次減息股市皆跌。
中國宏調加息，每一次加完，股市必升。9月聯儲局第一次減息，全球股市皆升；10月31日第二次減息，全球股市皆跌。汝道美國企業盈利差也不用驚，美國經濟差也不用驚，因為會減息！這是甚麼道理。
港股反彈完下試25000
網民近期將跌市歸咎溫總，此乃何等的愚昧。要為祖國好才需要跌市，難道大家真的想國家及香港重蹈90年日本的覆轍？
外資大鱷上下其手，想借中資資金炒爆港股，重溫97金融風暴的美夢，國家領導人不會不明其所以的！
回歸前港英政府製造的繁榮美夢，最終也為港人帶來痛苦的7年。只懂升、不懂跌的股市與樓市，其實是最凶險不過，但偏偏世人就喜歡眼前的快慰，不理後果，這跟不良少年食「搖頭丸」又有何分別呢？
港股方面，仍看反彈後再下調，目標25000點。
作者沈振盈為證監會持牌人士
股市之所以跟隨減息公佈而上升，就是預先反映此因素。減息之所以令股市跌，是因為聯儲局以經濟狀況來決定是否減息，經濟唔掂就要減，越唔掂就越減，所以每次減息後股市皆跌。至此，大家可能摸不着頭腦！究竟減息是否利好股市呢？
首先，大家要明白，一次半次的減息不能即時解決經濟問題，或許換句說話講，「低息可刺激經濟，不是減息可刺激經濟」。
「減息」要減到某一水平才可刺激經濟。「高息」可以冷卻經濟，加息要加到某一水平才可達到此一目標。
歷史已清楚告訴我們，1999年的加息周期，股市越加越升；2001年的減息周期，除了首兩次減息外，每一次減息股市皆跌。
中國宏調加息，每一次加完，股市必升。9月聯儲局第一次減息，全球股市皆升；10月31日第二次減息，全球股市皆跌。汝道美國企業盈利差也不用驚，美國經濟差也不用驚，因為會減息！這是甚麼道理。
港股反彈完下試25000
網民近期將跌市歸咎溫總，此乃何等的愚昧。要為祖國好才需要跌市，難道大家真的想國家及香港重蹈90年日本的覆轍？
外資大鱷上下其手，想借中資資金炒爆港股，重溫97金融風暴的美夢，國家領導人不會不明其所以的！
回歸前港英政府製造的繁榮美夢，最終也為港人帶來痛苦的7年。只懂升、不懂跌的股市與樓市，其實是最凶險不過，但偏偏世人就喜歡眼前的快慰，不理後果，這跟不良少年食「搖頭丸」又有何分別呢？
港股方面，仍看反彈後再下調，目標25000點。
作者沈振盈為證監會持牌人士
My prediction on 13 September 2007
<--click to enlarge
About 2 months ago, I have made a prediction on the following counters.
This morning, I realised my total paper loss is S$9,700 (exluding brokerage fee). OUCH!
However, if I look at the brighter side of the picture, I have actually save my bank account from incurring this S$9,700 loss, since this is just only a prediction game on paper only.
Ah Q 精神 !!!
What does this show? SG market is not bullish anymore? Hmmm...
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Asian economy faces only mild slowdown: IMF official
SEOUL : Asian economies have weathered the US subprime mortgage crisis well and will experience only a mild slowdown next year, a senior International Monetary Fund official said Thursday.
But any sharp US slowdown would have a significant effect on the region, especially if other industrial countries followed suit, said Jerald Schiff, the IMF's assistant director for the Asia-Pacific.
"Like the region as a whole, Korea weathered very well the crisis in the summer," Schiff said in a speech on the economic outlook for South Korea and the region. Schiff said the outlook for Asia remains positive next year, "although global developments have increased significantly the downside risks."
He said the IMF projects a mild slowdown in Asia in 2008 and a moderate slowdown globally but "there is a sizeable risk of a US recession and a sharper global slowdown." This would most likely be triggered by extended weakness in the US housing market, spreading to lower consumption and investment and higher unemployment.
The US housing market showed few signs so far of recovery.
But any sharp US slowdown would have a significant effect on the region, especially if other industrial countries followed suit, said Jerald Schiff, the IMF's assistant director for the Asia-Pacific.
"Like the region as a whole, Korea weathered very well the crisis in the summer," Schiff said in a speech on the economic outlook for South Korea and the region. Schiff said the outlook for Asia remains positive next year, "although global developments have increased significantly the downside risks."
He said the IMF projects a mild slowdown in Asia in 2008 and a moderate slowdown globally but "there is a sizeable risk of a US recession and a sharper global slowdown." This would most likely be triggered by extended weakness in the US housing market, spreading to lower consumption and investment and higher unemployment.
The US housing market showed few signs so far of recovery.
美國弱勢中港利多於弊 - Tony Measor
若你細看我們組合的成績，根本不用理會港股的大上大落，因我們像有厚厚的脂肪護身，能抵禦寒冬。即使個別股票的價格，早已大幅颷升，有些更明顯出現超買，亦毋須擔驚受怕。
在這極度波動的市況裡，投機者顯得分外憂愁，有固定職業的，更會影響工作表現。如你只是希望透過投資組合來增加收入，而沒有打算像賭徒般瞓身押注，那便不用太過緊張。市場上充斥太多散戶，心存僥倖想在股市賭一鋪賺大錢，卻並非旨在替資金增值，為退休作好準備。組合回報每年三成
組合的回報，已大大超出原來定下每年增長一成半的目標；至今成立八年半，每年平均增長逾三成，即使增幅回落至每年只有兩成半，我亦心滿意足，屆時組合總值為六百五十萬元，表現仍有交代，就算出現大幅度調整，亦不會影響我的心情。
今天的港股，無疑是處於高位，調整早晚會出現。但我們的組合根基穩健，相信我的長期讀者，私人組合的表現亦相差不遠。惟外圍有太多未知數，香港的投資者根本難以全盤理解。就好像美國的次按危機，仍令很多投資者感到迷惑，然而要完全明白箇中局面，實在十分困難。
美國的問題，歸根究底源自樓市衰退，大批買家過分借貸置業，而他們的按揭貸款經包裝後，變成了高回報的投資工具，吸引不少大型投資機構買入，但他們未有認真做好風險管理，便匆匆接下火棒。
美國樓市似十年前香港
美國聯儲局局長伯南克不惜大幅減息來挽救樓市，反而會把美國經濟弄得一團糟。美國的情況就似十年前的香港，大批炒家瘋狂炒樓炒股，最終要走上街頭搞反政府示威。
伯南克愈大動作，反而令問題惡化，嚇到業主不問情由一味沽貨，這無疑能令風暴更快完結，但會加劇跌勢，令更多窮人受損。
我熱愛買股，最大理由是投資股票能有效對抗通脹，尤其是買入優質股，效果更為顯著。通脹有其政治需要，在生產力未有提升的時候，工人可以不問情由便獲得加薪。
假如持續減息，商品例如油價卻攀升，通脹無可避免會惡化。這難免影響到樓市，買家當然歡天喜地，但賣家卻變相賤賣了物業。美國的入口產品變得更加昂貴，勢必會令伯南克要用加息來壓抑這股升勢
香港十分幸運，因內地對香港經濟的影響力日益增加，雖然美國影響力猶在，卻已慢慢減退了。
現階段，投資者須等美國風暴完結，但對香港及中國的影響並不太壞。美國弱勢，某程度來看，對中國更是利多於弊。
TONY MEASOR 在證券界有三十五年經驗，八七年股災及八八年股市冒升時，他所管理的香港基金表現都是香港最出眾的。他之前是財經網站Quamnet的總編。在此之前，他在嘉洛證券工作，管理客戶二億五千萬元資金。
在這極度波動的市況裡，投機者顯得分外憂愁，有固定職業的，更會影響工作表現。如你只是希望透過投資組合來增加收入，而沒有打算像賭徒般瞓身押注，那便不用太過緊張。市場上充斥太多散戶，心存僥倖想在股市賭一鋪賺大錢，卻並非旨在替資金增值，為退休作好準備。組合回報每年三成
組合的回報，已大大超出原來定下每年增長一成半的目標；至今成立八年半，每年平均增長逾三成，即使增幅回落至每年只有兩成半，我亦心滿意足，屆時組合總值為六百五十萬元，表現仍有交代，就算出現大幅度調整，亦不會影響我的心情。
今天的港股，無疑是處於高位，調整早晚會出現。但我們的組合根基穩健，相信我的長期讀者，私人組合的表現亦相差不遠。惟外圍有太多未知數，香港的投資者根本難以全盤理解。就好像美國的次按危機，仍令很多投資者感到迷惑，然而要完全明白箇中局面，實在十分困難。
美國的問題，歸根究底源自樓市衰退，大批買家過分借貸置業，而他們的按揭貸款經包裝後，變成了高回報的投資工具，吸引不少大型投資機構買入，但他們未有認真做好風險管理，便匆匆接下火棒。
美國樓市似十年前香港
美國聯儲局局長伯南克不惜大幅減息來挽救樓市，反而會把美國經濟弄得一團糟。美國的情況就似十年前的香港，大批炒家瘋狂炒樓炒股，最終要走上街頭搞反政府示威。
伯南克愈大動作，反而令問題惡化，嚇到業主不問情由一味沽貨，這無疑能令風暴更快完結，但會加劇跌勢，令更多窮人受損。
我熱愛買股，最大理由是投資股票能有效對抗通脹，尤其是買入優質股，效果更為顯著。通脹有其政治需要，在生產力未有提升的時候，工人可以不問情由便獲得加薪。
假如持續減息，商品例如油價卻攀升，通脹無可避免會惡化。這難免影響到樓市，買家當然歡天喜地，但賣家卻變相賤賣了物業。美國的入口產品變得更加昂貴，勢必會令伯南克要用加息來壓抑這股升勢
香港十分幸運，因內地對香港經濟的影響力日益增加，雖然美國影響力猶在，卻已慢慢減退了。
現階段，投資者須等美國風暴完結，但對香港及中國的影響並不太壞。美國弱勢，某程度來看，對中國更是利多於弊。
TONY MEASOR 在證券界有三十五年經驗，八七年股災及八八年股市冒升時，他所管理的香港基金表現都是香港最出眾的。他之前是財經網站Quamnet的總編。在此之前，他在嘉洛證券工作，管理客戶二億五千萬元資金。
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
China insurers allowed to buy Hong Kong stocks
SHANGHAI : China's second largest life insurer Ping An Insurance Group and Huatai Insurance Co have received permission to invest in Hong Kong stocks on behalf of clients, state media said Wednesday.
The two insurers are allowed to invest up to five percent of their total assets in Hong Kong stocks, the Shanghai Securities News reported, citing unnamed sources.
Previously major insurers like the country's largest life insurer China Life and Ping An were only allowed to invest in overseas equity markets with their own funds, but not with money from their own customers.
With the approval, Ping An and Huatai would be able to provide equity investment products that convert funds in the local yuan currency collected from domestic investors to trade Hong Kong-listed shares.
Based on their assets figures at the end of 2006, Ping An is likely to invest as much as 22 billion yuan (2.9 billion dollars) for its clients in Hong Kong while Huatai could invest up to 964.5 million yuan, the report said.
The move is widely regarded as a test case, and if it goes well, other Chinese insurance firms may be allowed to do the same thing, according to observers.
China has approved banks, securities houses and fund managers to provide products that invest in Hong Kong stocks as part of its efforts to expand investment channels for mainland investors and encourage capital outflows.
Beijing also announced a plan in August that would allow domestic individuals to directly invest in Hong Kong stocks but the programme was delayed on concerns over the impact of fund-draining on mainland bourses.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reportedly urged caution on the eagerly-awaited plan and set conditions for the implementation of the scheme over the weekend which sent the Hong Kong market down five percent Monday.
The two insurers are allowed to invest up to five percent of their total assets in Hong Kong stocks, the Shanghai Securities News reported, citing unnamed sources.
Previously major insurers like the country's largest life insurer China Life and Ping An were only allowed to invest in overseas equity markets with their own funds, but not with money from their own customers.
With the approval, Ping An and Huatai would be able to provide equity investment products that convert funds in the local yuan currency collected from domestic investors to trade Hong Kong-listed shares.
Based on their assets figures at the end of 2006, Ping An is likely to invest as much as 22 billion yuan (2.9 billion dollars) for its clients in Hong Kong while Huatai could invest up to 964.5 million yuan, the report said.
The move is widely regarded as a test case, and if it goes well, other Chinese insurance firms may be allowed to do the same thing, according to observers.
China has approved banks, securities houses and fund managers to provide products that invest in Hong Kong stocks as part of its efforts to expand investment channels for mainland investors and encourage capital outflows.
Beijing also announced a plan in August that would allow domestic individuals to directly invest in Hong Kong stocks but the programme was delayed on concerns over the impact of fund-draining on mainland bourses.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reportedly urged caution on the eagerly-awaited plan and set conditions for the implementation of the scheme over the weekend which sent the Hong Kong market down five percent Monday.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
直通車延遲是好事 - 曾淵滄
昨日恒指大跌1526點，是溫總叫停港股直通車的效果嗎？不是的，溫總叫停港股直通車的效果只是兩三百點罷了，也就是昨日開市時的價格。昨日開市時的價格，反映的就是股民經過一個周末的思考之後，決定要買或是要賣的股價。之後，港股不斷地下跌，午後下跌幅度進一步惡化，真正的原因是亞太區股市全面下跌所致，特別是日本股市大跌，才是真正的導火線。換言之，昨日港股大跌與溫總沒多大關係，虧錢的股民們千萬不好賴溫總、罵溫總。要罵，該罵美國花旗銀行迫行政總裁辭職，美國花旗銀行行政總裁離職讓全球投資者擔心美國次級按揭問題仍然很嚴重，上星期減息0.25厘可能是太少了。昨日，真正被溫總談話打殘的兩隻股是中石油（857）與中石化（386）。上個星期六，我在廣州時接受《蘋果》記者的訪問，也估計資源股票的打擊最大，當時沒有詳細說理由，我的道理是，天然資源有國際價格，有國際市場，美國的石油公司PE只不過10倍，為甚麼中石油PE 21倍，中石化PE 17倍？中石油與中石化能享受更高的PE，其中一個理由就是有港股直通車的概念。非資源股的PE比西方國家高，有高增長的理由支持，因此打擊程度也相對小。
牛市壽命得以延續
實際上，這次溫總開口叫停直通車是一件大大的好事，因為如果沒有溫總叫停，如果港股直通車昨日通車，港股會完全不顧全球股市調整，不顧美國次按問題未解決而像火箭一樣直飛天，上天之後的結果是甚麼？一定是國際大鱷飽食遠颺，再踩多一腳，1973年式的大股災會重演。內地股民的的確確沒有任何風險意識，沒有受過1973年、1987年、1997年的洗禮，如果港股直通車昨日開了，恐怕這個大牛市過不了聖誕節就完蛋了。港股直通車不開，反而可以延續牛市的壽命。昨日港股大跌的真正原因是美國次按問題，但是控（005）股價相對地跌幅溫和，是最佳的防守股。作者為城市大學MBA課程主任
牛市壽命得以延續
實際上，這次溫總開口叫停直通車是一件大大的好事，因為如果沒有溫總叫停，如果港股直通車昨日通車，港股會完全不顧全球股市調整，不顧美國次按問題未解決而像火箭一樣直飛天，上天之後的結果是甚麼？一定是國際大鱷飽食遠颺，再踩多一腳，1973年式的大股災會重演。內地股民的的確確沒有任何風險意識，沒有受過1973年、1987年、1997年的洗禮，如果港股直通車昨日開了，恐怕這個大牛市過不了聖誕節就完蛋了。港股直通車不開，反而可以延續牛市的壽命。昨日港股大跌的真正原因是美國次按問題，但是控（005）股價相對地跌幅溫和，是最佳的防守股。作者為城市大學MBA課程主任
Monday, November 5, 2007
中國股市泡沫續吹 - 麥嘉華
由2005年低位計，中國股市至今狂升逾6倍，市值（包括本港掛牌的H股在內）已超越日本。
全球25大市值公司當中，中國公司佔6間，比歐盟或日本都要多。工商銀行（1398）市值比花旗集團更大（儘管花旗賺錢多幾倍），而中國人壽（2628）已成為全球市值最大的保險公司。
一位精明的基金經理最近寫道：「投資者要買甚麼？兩個字：中國。所有泡沫都是由良好的基本因素開始：中國經濟增長驕人、企業盈利大升、迅速城市化、消費增長強勁，再加上08年奧運作催化劑，一個大牛市於是誕生。
可是論到價值，則是另一回事，日本的保險公司現價P/B（市賬率）不過0.6倍，中國的卻是15倍。工行現在已是全球第 3大市值公司，大過微軟、IBM或Google，P/B達6倍。還記得1989年時，日本興業銀行的市值大過澳洲股市，P/B達7倍。投資者搶着要買的東西，往往都要投降收場，當年他們在最高位買入日本的銀行，後果大家都知道。」
與80年代台股極相似
對於這位朋友的看法，我十分贊同。我想補充的是，中國這個世界大國，將會出現資本主義史上迄今最大的股市泡沫。
上世紀80年代的台灣，是個可堪比擬的瘋狂例子。
在80年代初，台灣股市指數不過是500點左右，到了1990年，指數竟暴升至12000點之上！
事實上，當年的台股與今日的中國股市有不少可以比較之處。在1987年，台灣的外滙儲備多達700億美元，經通脹調整後，以人均計算大約是中國今日的4.5倍。
當年的台灣讓台幣兌美元緩緩升值，由40台幣兌1美元，逐漸升至24 兌1（即升值66%），一如中國現在讓人民幣每日微升。
在1989年，台股每日成交額是總市值的6倍，更是可自由買賣股份總市值的20倍。中國股市目前的數字是0.4倍和1.4倍。
證券戶口大增的情況亦相近，1990年第1季，台灣證券戶口有400萬個，以當時2100萬人口計，大概有23%台灣人開立了證券戶口（當然有些股民不止1個戶口），以百分率計，顯然高於今日的中國。
資料顯示，截至去年底止，在上海證交所登記的散戶戶口數目，約相當於全國人口的 3%，但隨着市況熾熱，我相信這個比率已增至10%左右。即使如此，與其他地方相比，這個比率還是很低（台灣現時的比率已增至55%）。
在奧運前爆煲機會大
以估值比較，當年的台股亦更為離譜，PE（市盈率）高達百倍，幾乎比日股高出1倍（當時日股亦大吹泡沫）。最高峯時，國泰人壽PE高達153倍！相比之下，上海A股平均PE目前大約是60倍左右，香港的H股還不足30倍。
但我們不要忘記，不少中國公司的盈利有相當部份來自股市投資，並不實在。我雖然深信中國股市已在某種程度的泡沫中，但這個泡沫還可以繼續吹一段時間，吹得更大。
理由之一是中國的銀行存款息率太低，僅得3.87厘，毫不吸引，而且通脹率高，估計今年約達6.5%，存款於銀行極不化算。
此外，據統計中國的實質貸款利率低至3厘，遠低於中國每年11-12%的經濟增長，這意味商人借錢做生意，幾乎保證有錢賺。在這種情況下，再加上股價樓價不斷上升，中國人一定會盡快把積蓄從銀行提出來，投入股市或樓市。那麼我會否投資中國股市？不會，因為經過年來的拋物線爆升後，中國股市在08年北京奧運前爆煲的機會很大。
其中一個警告訊號是9月平均日成交量只得153億股，遠低於5月的257億股。股市一旦見頂就會暴瀉，中國股市將來見頂後，我相信很多年之後，也不能重返08年的高峯，看看台灣和日本就知道。
全球25大市值公司當中，中國公司佔6間，比歐盟或日本都要多。工商銀行（1398）市值比花旗集團更大（儘管花旗賺錢多幾倍），而中國人壽（2628）已成為全球市值最大的保險公司。
一位精明的基金經理最近寫道：「投資者要買甚麼？兩個字：中國。所有泡沫都是由良好的基本因素開始：中國經濟增長驕人、企業盈利大升、迅速城市化、消費增長強勁，再加上08年奧運作催化劑，一個大牛市於是誕生。
可是論到價值，則是另一回事，日本的保險公司現價P/B（市賬率）不過0.6倍，中國的卻是15倍。工行現在已是全球第 3大市值公司，大過微軟、IBM或Google，P/B達6倍。還記得1989年時，日本興業銀行的市值大過澳洲股市，P/B達7倍。投資者搶着要買的東西，往往都要投降收場，當年他們在最高位買入日本的銀行，後果大家都知道。」
與80年代台股極相似
對於這位朋友的看法，我十分贊同。我想補充的是，中國這個世界大國，將會出現資本主義史上迄今最大的股市泡沫。
上世紀80年代的台灣，是個可堪比擬的瘋狂例子。
在80年代初，台灣股市指數不過是500點左右，到了1990年，指數竟暴升至12000點之上！
事實上，當年的台股與今日的中國股市有不少可以比較之處。在1987年，台灣的外滙儲備多達700億美元，經通脹調整後，以人均計算大約是中國今日的4.5倍。
當年的台灣讓台幣兌美元緩緩升值，由40台幣兌1美元，逐漸升至24 兌1（即升值66%），一如中國現在讓人民幣每日微升。
在1989年，台股每日成交額是總市值的6倍，更是可自由買賣股份總市值的20倍。中國股市目前的數字是0.4倍和1.4倍。
證券戶口大增的情況亦相近，1990年第1季，台灣證券戶口有400萬個，以當時2100萬人口計，大概有23%台灣人開立了證券戶口（當然有些股民不止1個戶口），以百分率計，顯然高於今日的中國。
資料顯示，截至去年底止，在上海證交所登記的散戶戶口數目，約相當於全國人口的 3%，但隨着市況熾熱，我相信這個比率已增至10%左右。即使如此，與其他地方相比，這個比率還是很低（台灣現時的比率已增至55%）。
在奧運前爆煲機會大
以估值比較，當年的台股亦更為離譜，PE（市盈率）高達百倍，幾乎比日股高出1倍（當時日股亦大吹泡沫）。最高峯時，國泰人壽PE高達153倍！相比之下，上海A股平均PE目前大約是60倍左右，香港的H股還不足30倍。
但我們不要忘記，不少中國公司的盈利有相當部份來自股市投資，並不實在。我雖然深信中國股市已在某種程度的泡沫中，但這個泡沫還可以繼續吹一段時間，吹得更大。
理由之一是中國的銀行存款息率太低，僅得3.87厘，毫不吸引，而且通脹率高，估計今年約達6.5%，存款於銀行極不化算。
此外，據統計中國的實質貸款利率低至3厘，遠低於中國每年11-12%的經濟增長，這意味商人借錢做生意，幾乎保證有錢賺。在這種情況下，再加上股價樓價不斷上升，中國人一定會盡快把積蓄從銀行提出來，投入股市或樓市。那麼我會否投資中國股市？不會，因為經過年來的拋物線爆升後，中國股市在08年北京奧運前爆煲的機會很大。
其中一個警告訊號是9月平均日成交量只得153億股，遠低於5月的257億股。股市一旦見頂就會暴瀉，中國股市將來見頂後，我相信很多年之後，也不能重返08年的高峯，看看台灣和日本就知道。
直通車遲開不等於唔開 - 陳永陸
總理溫家寶在周末提及港股直通車的問題，表示由於教育、法規尚未完善，港股直通車不可能在短期內啓動，對於溫總的言論，市場大多相信會令恒生指數今日出現顯著的下跌，但在恒生指數上周五大跌超過1000點後，其實港股的短期升勢已有所降溫，如今溫家寶的言論，則可令港股的鞏固期可以持久一點，對後市的發展反而更為健康。
而且，值得留意的是總理溫家寶並沒有指出，港股直通車的計劃需要取消，所以投資者不應對溫總的言論，過於放大，因為現在時機未到，並不等於日後沒有這個機會，反而由於未來仍有憧憬的空間，對港股後市，反而是一件好事。
事實上，近日港股直通車延遲開出的消息不斷傳出，市場亦早已接受了有關的「安排」，因為內地透過QDII來港的資金，近日來均以千億元計算，對港股帶來推動的作用，所以港股直通車一詞，對於不少投資者來說，意義早已不大。當然能在短期推出，市場絕對歡迎，暫時沒有，市場似乎亦早已接受，因為短期透過QDII來港的資金，仍然很多。
恒指30000點支持力強
所以，投資者不用擔心港股將會在今日出現顯著的調整，尤其是中石油（857）A股將在今日掛牌，相信應會利好A股市場的表現，這將會對資源股帶來穩定作用；與此同時，阿里巴巴（1688）將會在明日掛牌上市，早前凍結的4000億資金，亦會在今日解凍，相信這筆資金亦會為港股帶來支持的作用，故此恒生指數在 30000點附近的支持力，將會十分強勁。而且，投資者不要忘記的是，近日港元同業拆息持續回落，加上港元持續強勢，雖然這可能是部份資金憧憬港元會與美元脫鈎，因而大量流入香港，導致銀行體系資金出現過盛的情況，但投資者亦不要忘記，金管局已多次否認港元將會與美元脫鈎，但港元拆息卻持續下跌，這似乎反映出資金流入香港，並非純炒港元與美元脫鈎，而是切切實實看重香港的投資前景，故此就算港股直通車短期不開通，亦不代表港股要大跌。
金股油股可趁低吸納
所以，如果大市今日真的出現顯著調整，投資者反而可以考慮一下作出趁低吸納的行動，其中內房股在上周五已出現較大市為強的走勢，可繼續留意；與此同時，由於黃金價格在上周五顯著突破800美元的關口，而油價亦持續上升，這都可望為黃金及石油股帶來支持，投資者亦可以留意.
而且，值得留意的是總理溫家寶並沒有指出，港股直通車的計劃需要取消，所以投資者不應對溫總的言論，過於放大，因為現在時機未到，並不等於日後沒有這個機會，反而由於未來仍有憧憬的空間，對港股後市，反而是一件好事。
事實上，近日港股直通車延遲開出的消息不斷傳出，市場亦早已接受了有關的「安排」，因為內地透過QDII來港的資金，近日來均以千億元計算，對港股帶來推動的作用，所以港股直通車一詞，對於不少投資者來說，意義早已不大。當然能在短期推出，市場絕對歡迎，暫時沒有，市場似乎亦早已接受，因為短期透過QDII來港的資金，仍然很多。
恒指30000點支持力強
所以，投資者不用擔心港股將會在今日出現顯著的調整，尤其是中石油（857）A股將在今日掛牌，相信應會利好A股市場的表現，這將會對資源股帶來穩定作用；與此同時，阿里巴巴（1688）將會在明日掛牌上市，早前凍結的4000億資金，亦會在今日解凍，相信這筆資金亦會為港股帶來支持的作用，故此恒生指數在 30000點附近的支持力，將會十分強勁。而且，投資者不要忘記的是，近日港元同業拆息持續回落，加上港元持續強勢，雖然這可能是部份資金憧憬港元會與美元脫鈎，因而大量流入香港，導致銀行體系資金出現過盛的情況，但投資者亦不要忘記，金管局已多次否認港元將會與美元脫鈎，但港元拆息卻持續下跌，這似乎反映出資金流入香港，並非純炒港元與美元脫鈎，而是切切實實看重香港的投資前景，故此就算港股直通車短期不開通，亦不代表港股要大跌。
金股油股可趁低吸納
所以，如果大市今日真的出現顯著調整，投資者反而可以考慮一下作出趁低吸納的行動，其中內房股在上周五已出現較大市為強的走勢，可繼續留意；與此同時，由於黃金價格在上周五顯著突破800美元的關口，而油價亦持續上升，這都可望為黃金及石油股帶來支持，投資者亦可以留意.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Staying High and Dry in a Recession
There's an old saying that goes, "It's a recession if your neighbor loses his job. It's a depression if you lose your job."
Watching the financial news networks and reading the financial publications these days, you'll see many people asking if the U.S. economy is heading into a recession.
From my vantage point, the answer is yes. I believe that for many people in certain industries, like real estate, the worst is yet to come.
Economic Ripple Effects
Before getting into why I think there will be a recession, it's important to know the specific definition of the term. Very simply, a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP) for at least two quarters.
That means that by Christmas we'll know if we're in a recession or not.
In some ways, the coming recession is a product of the physical phenomenon known as precession.
Precession is the effect of bodies in motion upon other bodies in motion -- or, more simply, a ripple effect, like when you throw a stone into a still pond and the waves emanating from it overlap.
While there are many such processional "waves" in the coming recession, one is the lack of integrity in the U.S. monetary system.
The United States has defaulted on its financial promises many times in recent history.
In 1934, we defaulted on domestic gold redemption. That year, it became illegal for U.S. citizens to own gold. Instead, the government required Americans to turn in their gold, and they were paid $20 in paper money for every ounce of gold they surrendered.
Once the gold was collected, the government raised the price of gold to $35 an ounce. Talk about a lack of integrity.
And in 1968, the U.S. defaulted on silver redemption, taking U.S. dollars backed by silver out of circulation.
Finally, in 1971, the U.S. defaulted on international gold redemption.
International Impact
Another reason for the coming recession is the subprime mess.
And while issues related to the subprime fiasco may seem domestic, they actually have severe international consequences.
The subprime mess seems to be a problem associated with lower-income people who can't afford their homes, yet it's really the tip of a very large international iceberg, and it'll affect all of us.
Here's why.In the Sept. 12, 2007, issue of Business Week, Kerry Capell asked the question, "Could any country be more exposed to the credit crunch than the U.S.?" The answer: "You bet, and that place is Britain.
"Unlike many of its European neighbors, Britain shares many of America's financial traits. In the last few years, access to cheap credit in Britain has fueled a decade of economic growth, with home prices tripling in 10 years -- an even faster rise than in the United States.
With cheap borrowed money, the English consumer has caused the British economy to boom; consumers are responsible for two-thirds of the British economy.
Today, Britain is more dependent upon financial services than we are. So what will happen to the world if both England and the United States go into a recession?
The precessional effect is bound to be dire -- especially for working people.
Too Much Money
As strange as it may seem to the average person, the problem is not a shortage of money -- it's too much money.
The world is choking on too many U.S. dollars.
Normally, when a currency gets into trouble as the dollar is now, all the country has to do is raise the interest rates on their bonds and things are fine again.
But because of the subprime meltdown, the Federal Reserve can't simply raise or lower interest rates.
In simplified terms, the Fed must keep rates low in order to save the domestic economy. This causes the international economy to dump the dollar by not buying our bonds, which is one reason why the price of gold keeps going up -- it's the true international money.
And the rise in its price (and in the price of oil) signals the loss of the purchasing power of the dollar; the world simply doesn't want any more dollars.
This is a ripple effect from 1971, when the dollar came off the gold standard.
Less for More
The tragedy of this excess of money is that most of the world's workers have to work harder to earn less.
This is because the currencies of the world are becoming less and less valuable.
Even if workers get pay raises, the boost won't be able to keep pace with declines in the purchasing power of money, increases in expenses such as oil, decreases in the value of homes, declines in the value of stocks, and increases in taxes.
Just look at what's happened in the last decade.
Ten years ago, gold was about $275 an ounce. Today, it's over $700.
That means that, compared to gold, your income would've had to go up by 250 percent just to keep up with the loss in purchasing power of the dollar.
Or, compared to oil -- which was about $10 a barrel 10 years ago and today is over $80 a barrel -- your income would've had to go up by 800 percent.
Sure, there are many people whose incomes have gone up way beyond 800 percent in the last 10 years.
The problem is that most people's incomes haven't kept pace, and they're technically in a state of personal recession with no way out.
Throw Yourself a Lifeline
As the global economy continues to gyrate, you'll hear more and more people calling for the Federal Reserve to either lower or raise interest rates.
The problem is that the Fed has less and less power to do much.
If it tries to save the domestic economy, the international economy will pound us.
If the Fed tries to save the dollar internationally by raising interest rates, it'll kill the domestic economy.
Instead of looking to the Fed to save you, then, I recommend you save yourself by investing in real international money.
One way to do so is by purchasing silver. Gold is expensive, but silver is still a bargain even for the little guy.
When the recession comes, the ripple effect on your financial future will be immeasurable.
Watching the financial news networks and reading the financial publications these days, you'll see many people asking if the U.S. economy is heading into a recession.
From my vantage point, the answer is yes. I believe that for many people in certain industries, like real estate, the worst is yet to come.
Economic Ripple Effects
Before getting into why I think there will be a recession, it's important to know the specific definition of the term. Very simply, a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP) for at least two quarters.
That means that by Christmas we'll know if we're in a recession or not.
In some ways, the coming recession is a product of the physical phenomenon known as precession.
Precession is the effect of bodies in motion upon other bodies in motion -- or, more simply, a ripple effect, like when you throw a stone into a still pond and the waves emanating from it overlap.
While there are many such processional "waves" in the coming recession, one is the lack of integrity in the U.S. monetary system.
The United States has defaulted on its financial promises many times in recent history.
In 1934, we defaulted on domestic gold redemption. That year, it became illegal for U.S. citizens to own gold. Instead, the government required Americans to turn in their gold, and they were paid $20 in paper money for every ounce of gold they surrendered.
Once the gold was collected, the government raised the price of gold to $35 an ounce. Talk about a lack of integrity.
And in 1968, the U.S. defaulted on silver redemption, taking U.S. dollars backed by silver out of circulation.
Finally, in 1971, the U.S. defaulted on international gold redemption.
International Impact
Another reason for the coming recession is the subprime mess.
And while issues related to the subprime fiasco may seem domestic, they actually have severe international consequences.
The subprime mess seems to be a problem associated with lower-income people who can't afford their homes, yet it's really the tip of a very large international iceberg, and it'll affect all of us.
Here's why.In the Sept. 12, 2007, issue of Business Week, Kerry Capell asked the question, "Could any country be more exposed to the credit crunch than the U.S.?" The answer: "You bet, and that place is Britain.
"Unlike many of its European neighbors, Britain shares many of America's financial traits. In the last few years, access to cheap credit in Britain has fueled a decade of economic growth, with home prices tripling in 10 years -- an even faster rise than in the United States.
With cheap borrowed money, the English consumer has caused the British economy to boom; consumers are responsible for two-thirds of the British economy.
Today, Britain is more dependent upon financial services than we are. So what will happen to the world if both England and the United States go into a recession?
The precessional effect is bound to be dire -- especially for working people.
Too Much Money
As strange as it may seem to the average person, the problem is not a shortage of money -- it's too much money.
The world is choking on too many U.S. dollars.
Normally, when a currency gets into trouble as the dollar is now, all the country has to do is raise the interest rates on their bonds and things are fine again.
But because of the subprime meltdown, the Federal Reserve can't simply raise or lower interest rates.
In simplified terms, the Fed must keep rates low in order to save the domestic economy. This causes the international economy to dump the dollar by not buying our bonds, which is one reason why the price of gold keeps going up -- it's the true international money.
And the rise in its price (and in the price of oil) signals the loss of the purchasing power of the dollar; the world simply doesn't want any more dollars.
This is a ripple effect from 1971, when the dollar came off the gold standard.
Less for More
The tragedy of this excess of money is that most of the world's workers have to work harder to earn less.
This is because the currencies of the world are becoming less and less valuable.
Even if workers get pay raises, the boost won't be able to keep pace with declines in the purchasing power of money, increases in expenses such as oil, decreases in the value of homes, declines in the value of stocks, and increases in taxes.
Just look at what's happened in the last decade.
Ten years ago, gold was about $275 an ounce. Today, it's over $700.
That means that, compared to gold, your income would've had to go up by 250 percent just to keep up with the loss in purchasing power of the dollar.
Or, compared to oil -- which was about $10 a barrel 10 years ago and today is over $80 a barrel -- your income would've had to go up by 800 percent.
Sure, there are many people whose incomes have gone up way beyond 800 percent in the last 10 years.
The problem is that most people's incomes haven't kept pace, and they're technically in a state of personal recession with no way out.
Throw Yourself a Lifeline
As the global economy continues to gyrate, you'll hear more and more people calling for the Federal Reserve to either lower or raise interest rates.
The problem is that the Fed has less and less power to do much.
If it tries to save the domestic economy, the international economy will pound us.
If the Fed tries to save the dollar internationally by raising interest rates, it'll kill the domestic economy.
Instead of looking to the Fed to save you, then, I recommend you save yourself by investing in real international money.
One way to do so is by purchasing silver. Gold is expensive, but silver is still a bargain even for the little guy.
When the recession comes, the ripple effect on your financial future will be immeasurable.
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